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Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock.

ABSTRACT: The control of highly infectious diseases of livestock such as classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, and avian influenza is fraught with ethical, economic, and public health dilemmas. Attempts to control outbreaks of these pathogens rely on massive culling of infected farms, and farms deemed to be at risk of infection. Conventional approaches usually involve the preventive culling of all farms within a certain radius of an infected farm. Here we propose a novel culling strategy that is based on the idea that farms that have the highest expected number of secondary infections should be culled first. We show that, in comparison with conventional approaches (ring culling), our new method of risk based culling can reduce the total number of farms that need to be culled, the number of culled infected farms (and thus the expected number of human infections in case of a zoonosis), and the duration of the epidemic. Our novel risk based culling strategy requires three pieces of information, viz. the location of all farms in the area at risk, the moments when infected farms are detected, and an estimate of the distance-dependent probability of transmission.

SUBMITTER: te Beest DE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3160900 | biostudies-other | 2011 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock.

te Beest Dennis E DE Hagenaars Thomas J TJ Stegeman J Arjan JA Koopmans Marion P G MP van Boven Michiel M

Veterinary research 20110629

The control of highly infectious diseases of livestock such as classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, and avian influenza is fraught with ethical, economic, and public health dilemmas. Attempts to control outbreaks of these pathogens rely on massive culling of infected farms, and farms deemed to be at risk of infection. Conventional approaches usually involve the preventive culling of all farms within a certain radius of an infected farm. Here we propose a novel culling strategy that is ...[more]

PMID: 21714865

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Project description:Livestock rearing is an important income source for small-scale farmers in Myanmar, but Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Newcastle disease (ND) are major constraints to livestock production. A study was conducted to identify perceptions of farmers about FMD and ND disease risks and perceptions about vaccination practices by using the modified health belief model. The majority of livestock farmers (>70%) reported that they were aware of the risk and impact of FMD and ND and were willing to vaccinate their livestock (>60%). Focusing on three main livestock farmer groups, about 17.0% of cattle, 15.4% of village chicken, but only 2.3% of small ruminant owners, indicated that the non-availability of vaccinations in the villages was the major constraint to vaccinations (p<0.001), while in contrast twice as many small ruminant farmers compared to cattle and village chicken farmers indicated they had no knowledge about vaccinations and no funds to conduct vaccinations. Limited accessibility to vaccines and vaccinators was related to size of villages (p = 0.001 for cattle; p = 0.027 for small ruminants; p = 0.005 for village chicken). Willingness to vaccinate small ruminants against FMD was associated with the perceived impact of the disease on sales and accessibility of information about vaccination. Accessibility to information about ND vaccination influenced the willingness of village chicken farmers to conduct vaccinations. In addition, beliefs in the effectiveness of vaccinations played a major role in the willingness to carry out vaccinations on both, cattle (β = 0.3, p = 0.018) and village chicken farms (β = 0.5, p<0.001). Our study highlights that policies that increase the accessibility of vaccines and the dissemination of information about disease prevention and vaccination practices in villages of all sizes, have the potential to increase FMD and ND vaccination rates and thereby reduce outbreak occurrence in Myanmar. On the other hand, indirect factors, such as village size strongly influenced the availability of vaccinations.

Project description:Increasing globalization and international trade contribute to rapid expansion of animal and human diseases. Hence, preparedness is warranted to prevent outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging diseases or detect outbreaks in an early stage. We developed a rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to inform risk managers on the incursion risk of multiple livestock diseases, about the main sources for incursion and the change of risk over time. RRAT was built as a relational database to link data on disease outbreaks worldwide, on introduction routes and on disease-specific parameters. The tool was parameterized to assess the incursion risk of 10 livestock diseases for the Netherlands by three introduction routes: legal trade in live animals, legal trade of animal products, and animal products illegally carried by air travelers. RRAT calculates a semi-quantitative risk score for the incursion risk of each disease, the results of which allow for prioritization. Results based on the years 2016-2018 indicated that the legal introduction routes had the highest incursion risk for bovine tuberculosis, whereas the illegal route posed the highest risk for classical swine fever. The overall incursion risk via the illegal route was lower than via the legal routes. The incursion risk of African swine fever increased over the period considered, whereas the risk of equine infectious anemia decreased. The variation in the incursion risk over time illustrates the need to update the risk estimates on a regular basis. RRAT has been designed such that the risk assessment can be automatically updated when new data becomes available. For diseases with high-risk scores, model results can be analyzed in more detail to see which countries and trade flows contribute most to the risk, the results of which can be used to design risk-based surveillance. RRAT thus provides a multitude of information to evaluate the incursion risk of livestock diseases at different levels of detail. To give risk managers access to all results of RRAT, an online visualization tool was built.

Dataset Information

Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock.

Publications

Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock.

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