Trends in breast, ovarian and cervical cancer incidence in Mumbai, India over a 30-year period, 1976-2005: an age-period-cohort analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Dhillon PK
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3188937 | biostudies-other | 2011 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:IntroductionDespite tobacco control and health promotion efforts, the incidence rates of mouth cancer are increasing across most regions in India. Analysing the influence of age, time period and birth cohort on these secular trends can point towards underlying factors and help identify high-risk populations for improved cancer control programmes.MethodsWe evaluated secular changes in mouth cancer incidence among men and women aged 25-74 years in Mumbai between 1995 and 2009 by calculating age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We estimated the age-adjusted linear trend for annual percent change (EAPC) using the drift parameter, and conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to quantify recent time trends and to evaluate the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects.ResultsOver the 15-year period, age-standardized incidence rates of mouth cancer in men in Mumbai increased by 2.7% annually (95% CI:1.9 to 3.4), p<0.0001) while rates among women decreased (EAPC=-0.01% (95% CI:-0.02 to -0.002), p=0.03). APC analysis revealed significant non-linear positive period and cohort effects in men, with higher effects among younger men (25-49 years). Non-significant increasing trends were observed in younger women (25-49 years).ConclusionsAPC analyses from the Mumbai cancer registry indicate a significant linear increase of mouth cancer incidence from 1995 to 2009 in men, which was driven by younger men aged 25-49 years, and a non-significant upward trend in similarly aged younger women. Health promotion efforts should more effectively target younger cohorts.
| S-EPMC4911594 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer is the second leading cause of oncologic death worldwide. One of the most noteworthy characteristics of this tumor's epidemiology is the marked decline reported in its incidence and mortality in almost every part of the globe in recent decades. This study sought to describe gastric cancer mortality time trends in Spain's regions for both sexes. METHODS: Mortality data for the period 1976 through 2005 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th revision (codes 151 and C16, respectively). Crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated by geographic area, sex, and five-year period. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to ascertain whether changes in gastric cancer mortality trends had occurred, and to estimate the annual percent change by sex and geographic area. RESULTS: Gastric cancer mortality decreased across the study period, with the downward trend being most pronounced in women and in certain regions situated in the interior and north of mainland Spain. Across the study period, there was an overall decrease of 2.90% per annum among men and 3.65% per annum among women. Generally, regions in which the rate of decline was sharpest were those that had initially registered the highest rates. However, the rate of decline was not constant throughout the study period: joinpoint analysis detected a shift in trend for both sexes in the early 1980s. CONCLUSION: Gastric cancer mortality displayed in both sexes a downward trend during the study period, both nationally and regionally. The different trend in rates in the respective geographic areas translated as greater regional homogeneity in gastric cancer mortality by the end of the study period. In contrast, rates in women fell more than did those in men. The increasing differences between the sexes could indicate that some risk factors may be modifying the sex-specific pattern of this tumor.
| S-EPMC2761406 | biostudies-other
Project description:BACKGROUND:Ovarian cancer (OC) is the seventh most common malignancy worldwide and the most lethal gynaecological malignancy. We aimed to explore global geographical patterns and temporal trends from 1973 to 2015 for 41 countries in OC incidence and especially to analyse the birth cohort effect to gain further insight into the underlying causal factors of OC and identify countries with increasing risk of OC. METHODS:OC data were drawn from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents databases and online databases published by governments. The joinpoint regression model was applied to detect changes in OC trends. The age-period-cohort model was applied to explore age and birth cohort effects. RESULTS:The age-standardized rate of OC incidence ranged from 3.0 to 11.4 per 100,000 women worldwide in 2012. The highest age-standardized rate was observed in Central and Eastern Europe, with 11.4 per 100,000 women in 2012. For the most recent 10-year period, the increasing trends were mainly observed in Central and South America, Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. The largest significant increase was observed in Brazil, with an average annual percentage change of 4.4%. For recent birth cohorts, cohort-specific increases in risk were pronounced in Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Lithuania, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Malta, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Russia, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, India, Japan, the Philippines and Thailand. CONCLUSIONS:Disparities in the incidence and risk of OC persist worldwide. The increased risk of birth cohort in OC incidence was observed for most countries in Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central and South America. The reason for the increasing OC risk for recent birth cohorts in these countries should be investigated with further epidemiology studies.
| S-EPMC6806513 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ovarian cancer is the eighth most common cancer in women worldwide and incidence rates vary markedly by world region. Our study provides a comprehensive overview of ovarian cancer incidence trends globally, examining the influence of birth cohort and period of diagnosis on changing risk. We presented current patterns and trends of ovarian cancer incidence until 2012 using data from successive volumes of Cancer Incidence in Five Contents. The incidence of ovarian cancer is highest in northern and eastern European countries and in northern America. Declining trends were observed in most countries with the exception of a few central and eastern Asian countries. Marked declines were seen in Europe and North America for women aged 50-74 where rates have declined up to 2.4% (95% CI: -3.9, -0.9) annually in Denmark (DNK) over the last decade. Additionally, declines in the incidence rate ratio (IRR) were observed for generations born after the 1930s, with an additional strong period effect seen around 2000 in United States and DNK. In contrast, IRRs increased among younger generations born after the 1950s in Japan and Belarus. Overall, the favorable trends in ovarian cancer incidence is likely due to the increase use of oral contraceptive pills, and changes in the prevalence of other reproductive risk and protective factors for ovarian cancer over the years studied. Changes in disease classifications and cancer registry practices may also partially contribute to the variation in ovarian cancer incidence rates. Thus, continuous cancer surveillance is essential to detect the shifting patterns of ovarian cancer.
| S-EPMC6786921 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo determine the main predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in a rural West Indian population in Plymouth, Tobago over 30 years.MethodsQuestionnaire survey for CV risk factors and alcohol consumption patterns administered at baseline in 1976 with 92.5% response rate. 831/832 patients were followed up until 2005 or death.ResultsHypertension (>140/90 mm Hg) was prevalent in 48% of men and 44% of women, and 21% of men and 17% of women had diabetes. Evidence showed most predictors for all cause and cardiovascular mortality having the main effects at ages <60 years, (p-value for interaction<0.01) but no risk factors having sex-specific effects on mortality. The main predictors of all-cause mortality at age <60 years in the fully adjusted model were high sessional alcohol intake (hazard ratio (HR) 2.04, 95% CI 1.10-3.80), severe hypertension >160/95 mm Hg (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.60), diabetes (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.89-5.69), and BMI (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07). The main predictors of cardiovascular mortality were similar in the fully adjusted model: high sessional alcohol intake (HR 2.47 95% CI 1.10-5.57), severe hypertension (HR 2.78 95% CI 1.56-4.95), diabetes (HR 3.68 95% CI 1.77-7.67) and additionally LVH, (HR 5.54 95% CI 1.38-22.26), however BMI did not show independent effects. For men, high sessional alcohol intake explains 27% of all cause mortality, and 40% of cardiovascular mortality at age <60 yrs. In adults aged <60 years, the attributable risk fraction for IGT/Diabetes and all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality is 28% in women vs. 11% in men, and 22% in women vs. 6% in men respectively.ConclusionsIn this Afro-Caribbean population we found that a major proportion of deaths are attributable to high sessional alcohol intake (in males), diabetes, and hypertension and these risk factors primarily operate in those below 60 years.
| S-EPMC3026774 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Leprosy remains an important cause of preventable disabilities. After the advent of multidrug therapy, new leprosy cases have come down dramatically. Despite this achievement, India, which contributes 60% of the global leprosy burden, faces some challenges to eliminate the disease, including active transmission in the community and delayed diagnosis of leprosy patients. OBJECTIVES:The objectives of the study were 1) to determine sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of newly diagnosed adults and children (less than 15 years) with leprosy and their trends over time (2008-2015) and 2) to describe the profile of surgical procedures among leprosy patients registered for reconstructive surgeries during 2006-2015. DESIGN:Retrospective descriptive study was conducted involving a record review of new patients with leprosy registered in Vimala Dermatological Centre, Mumbai. RESULTS:A total of 578 new leprosy cases were registered in the hospital during 2008-2015. There has been a steady increase in the trend of child cases (less than 15 years) registered in the facility (from 3% in 2008 to 18% in 2015), x2=12.11, p<0.01. The majority of the patients (68%) were migrants of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. CONCLUSIONS:Targeting children and migrants and ensuring early diagnosis and treatment initiation are essential components for leprosy elimination in an urban metropolis in India.
| S-EPMC5123210 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveA very few studies describe the epidemiology of primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS). The reported frequency of pulmonary involvement in pSS varies widely depending on the detection method employed, and consists mainly of various forms of airways disease. We aimed to evaluate the incidence and mortality of pSS and of lung disease in pSS, focusing on interstitial lung disease (ILD).MethodsA population-based incidence cohort of patients diagnosed with pSS in 1976-2005 was assembled. Diagnosis was based on the 2002 American-European Consensus Group criteria for pSS. Cumulative incidence adjusted for the competing risk of death was estimated. A Cox model with a time-dependent covariate was used to determine the incidence and the standardised mortality HR of pSS.Results85 patients with pSS were identified (mean age 59.9 years; 91% women). The annual incidence of pSS was 4.2, 95% CI (3.3 to 5.1)/100 000 population and it increased with higher age at pSS diagnosis (18-44 years: 2.1/100 000 vs ?75 years: 12.3/100 000). Standardised mortality ratio in pSS compared with the general population was 0.92, 95% CI (0.57 to 1.41). A total of 105 patients with pSS and ILD were identified (mean age 58.1 years; 91% women). Among patients with pSS without prior ILD, the cumulative incidence of ILD in patients with pSS was 10% (±3%) at 1 year after diagnosis of pSS and increased to 20% (±4%) by 5 years after pSS. The development of lung disease in pSS was associated with poor survival (HR 2.16; 95% CI 0.99 to 4.74).ConclusionspSS incidence seems to be almost the same as was reported in a previous study conducted among Olmsted County Minnesota population. Survival among patients with pSS and general population does not differ substantially. However, patients with pSS who have ILD likely have increased premature mortality.
| S-EPMC3845035 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019.MethodsThis is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990-2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age-Period-Cohort model.ResultsDuring the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: - 2.21; 95% CI: - 2.29 to - 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 1.63; 95% CI: - 1.71 to - 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: - 4.35; 95% CI: - 5.12 to - 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 3.88; 95% CI: - 4.63 to - 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts.ConclusionMortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990-2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India's National Strategic plan 2017-2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars "Detect-Treat-Prevent-Build" (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).
| S-EPMC8597252 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe mass migrations experienced by the Western Balkans in the past decades have significantly changed the demographic structures and have probably altered the prevalence of transfusion-transmitted infections (TTIs) among blood donors. However, data on the prevalence of TTIs in the Western Balkans countries remain incomplete. This study reports the prevalence of TTIs among blood donors in Serbia in the period 2005-2017.Materials and methodsBetween January 2005 and December 2017, in the four largest Serbian transfusion centres, mandatory serology tests for screening HBV, HCV, HIV and syphilis infection were used for all blood donations.ResultsOf the total of 1,660,019 blood donations made, 3,377 (0.203%) were positive for one of the TTIs: 1,440 (0.087%), 1,055 (0.064%), 215 (0.013%), and 667 (0.040%) were positive for HBV, HCV, HIV and syphilis, respectively. Serbia showed a declining trend of prevalence of HBV and HCV infection, while prevalence of HIV and syphilis remained unchanged. Prevalence of TTIs varied between different transfusion centres and showed a north-to-south upward trend.DiscussionThe reported prevalence of TTIs among blood donors in Serbia was low and continued to follow a declining trend over the period of study.
| S-EPMC6774926 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsTo measure changes over time in cigarette smoking uptake prevalence and timing during young adulthood (ages 19-26 years), and associations between time-invariant/-varying characteristics and uptake prevalence/timing.DesignDiscrete-time survival modeling of data collected from United States high school seniors (modal age 17/18) enrolled in successive graduating classes from 1976 to 2005 and participating in four follow-up surveys (to modal age 25/26).SettingThe longitudinal component of the Monitoring the Future study.ParticipantsA total of 10 758 individuals reporting no life-time smoking when first surveyed as high school seniors.MeasurementsSmoking uptake (any, experimental, occasional and regular); socio-demographic variables; marital, college and work status; time spent socializing.FindingsThe percentage of young adults moving from non-smoker to experimental smoking [slope estimate 0.11, standard error (SE) = 0.04, P = 0.005] or occasional smoking (slope estimate 0.17, SE = 0.03, P < 0.001) increased significantly across graduating classes; the percentage moving from non-smoker to regular smoker remained stable. All forms of smoking uptake were most likely to occur at age 19/20, but uptake prevalence at older ages increased over time [e.g. cohort year predicting occasional uptake at modal age 25/26 adjusted hazard odds ratio (AHOR) = 1.05, P = 0.002]. Time-invariant/-varying characteristics had unique associations with the timing of various forms of smoking uptake (e.g. at modal age 21/22, currently attending college increased occasional uptake risk (AHOR = 2.11, P < 0.001) but decreased regular uptake risk (AHOR = 0.69, P = 0.026).ConclusionsYoung adult occasional and experimental smoking uptake increased in the United States for non-smoking high school seniors graduating from 1976 to 2005. Smoking uptake for these cohorts remained most likely to occur at age 19/20, but prevalence of uptake at older ages increased.
| S-EPMC4478090 | biostudies-literature