Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Mistry M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3242594 | biostudies-other | 2011 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:There are currently two million cancer survivors in the United Kingdom, and in recent years this number has grown by 3% per annum. The aim of this paper is to provide long-term projections of cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom.National cancer registry data for England were used to estimate cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom in 2009. Using a model of prevalence as a function of incidence, survival and population demographics, projections were made to 2040. Different scenarios of future incidence and survival, and their effects on cancer prevalence, were also considered. Colorectal, lung, prostate, female breast and all cancers combined (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) were analysed separately.Assuming that existing trends in incidence and survival continue, the number of cancer survivors in the United Kingdom is projected to increase by approximately one million per decade from 2010 to 2040. Particularly large increases are anticipated in the oldest age groups, and in the number of long-term survivors. By 2040, almost a quarter of people aged at least 65 will be cancer survivors.Increasing cancer survival and the growing/ageing population of the United Kingdom mean that the population of survivors is likely to grow substantially in the coming decades, as are the related demands upon the health service. Plans must, therefore, be laid to ensure that the varied needs of cancer survivors can be met in the future.
| S-EPMC3461160 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundEstimating the future incidence of cancer is important to establish sufficient service provision, however, work in this area is limited for cancer in children, adolescents, and young adults (aged 0-24).MethodsAge-period-cohort models were applied to cancer incidence rates for the period 1971-2013 in England. This allowed us to extrapolate past trends to 2030. We used the appropriate cancer classification developed for cancers in children and young adults, which are analysed as two separate groups to capture inherent differences.ResultsThe data set consisted of 119?485 records (55% among 15+ years group). Overall, cancer rates have increased over time and are expected to continue to rise into the future. Of particular interest is the increase in rates of germ cell tumours (in males) and carcinomas (in females) in young adults, since their rates are projected to further increase over time.ConclusionsThe estimated future incidence rates provide a baseline for different cancer subtypes, which will allow policymakers to develop a contingency plan to deal with future demands.
| S-EPMC5729467 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Breast cancer was the most common cancer and the fifth cause of cancer deaths among women in China in 2015. The evaluation of the long-term incidence and mortality trends and the prediction of the future burden of breast cancer could provide valuable information for developing prevention and control strategies. The burden of breast cancer in China in 2015 was estimated by using qualified data from 368 cancer registries from the National Central Cancer Registry. Incident cases and deaths in 22 cancer registries were used to assess the time trends from 2000 to 2015. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the burden of breast cancer to 2030. Approximately 303,600 new cases of breast cancer (205,100 from urban areas and 98,500 from rural areas) and 70,400 breast cancer deaths (45,100 from urban areas and 24,500 from rural areas) occurred in China in 2015. Urban regions of China had the highest incidence and mortality rates. The most common histological subtype of breast cancer was invasive ductal carcinoma, followed by invasive lobular carcinoma. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates increased by 3.3% and 1.0% per year during 2000-2015, and were projected to increase by more than 11% until 2030. Changes in risk and demographic factors between 2015 and 2030 in cases are predicted to increase by approximately 13.3% and 22.9%, whereas deaths are predicted to increase by 13.1% and 40.9%, respectively. The incidence and mortality of breast cancer continue to increase in China. There are no signs that this trend will stop by 2030, particularly in rural areas. Effective breast cancer prevention strategies are therefore urgently needed in China.
| S-EPMC8330522 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundBladder cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths all over the world. Epidemiological studies of bladder cancer are therefore crucial for policy making. This study was carried out to describe the characteristics of changes in the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age group, gender, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI) and to simultaneously project future trends up to 2030.MethodsIncidence and mortality trends in bladder cancer from 1990 to 2016 were described based on data and methodologies from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. The data also allowed the future trends of bladder cancer incidence and mortality to be predicted by ARIMA model. Trends were analyzed by age group, gender, and SDI. Projections to 2030 were sub-analyzed by SDI countries. R software (x64 version 3.5.1), SAS (version 9.3), and SPSS (version 22.0) were used throughout the process.ResultsGlobally, in 2016, there were 437,442 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 426,709-447,912] new bladder cancer cases and 186,199 (95% UI, 180,453-191,686) bladder cancer-associated deaths. Between 1990 and 2016, changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of bladder cancer decreased by 5.91% from 7.11 (95% UI, 6.93-7.27) in 1990 to 6.69 (95% UI, 6.52-6.85) in 2016. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased from 3.58 (95% UI, 3.49-3.68) to 2.94 (95% UI, 2.85-3.03) over the same period of time. In future, the greatest occurrence of bladder cancer will be in high SDI countries, followed by high-middle SDI countries. Moreover, bladder cancer incidence rates may increase substantially in middle SDI countries, while the incidence rates will remain relatively stable for men and women in other SDI countries. From 2017 to 2030, bladder cancer deaths will continue to increase in low SDI countries, while deaths in other SDI countries will continue to decrease.ConclusionsThere was a regional difference in the incidence and mortality trends of bladder cancer between 1990 and 2016. Overall, the situation is not optimistic. From 2017 to 2030, the incidence of bladder cancer will continue to rise, especially in high and high-middle SDI countries, where decision-makers should propose appropriate policies on the screening and prevention of bladder cancer.
| S-EPMC7215039 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Illumina Infinium 27k Human DNA methylation Beadchip v1.2 was used to obtain DNA methylation profiles across approximately 27,000 CpGs in whole blood samples from 540 samples, of which 266 were samples taken from postmenopausal women with ovarian cancer and 274 were from age-matched healthy controls Keywords: DNA methylation
2010-03-01 | GSE19711 | GEO
Project description:BACKGROUND:Population rates of obesity, hypertension, diabetes, age, and race can be used in simulation models to develop projections of ESRD incidence and prevalence. Such projections can inform long-range planning for ESRD resources needs. METHODS:We used an open compartmental simulation model to estimate the incidence and prevalence of ESRD in the United States through 2030 on the basis of wide-ranging projections of population obesity and ESRD death rates. Population trends in age, race, hypertension, and diabetes were on the basis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the US Census. RESULTS:The increase in ESRD incidence rates within age and race groups has leveled off and/or declined in recent years, but our model indicates that population changes in age and race distribution, obesity and diabetes prevalence, and ESRD survival will result in a 11%-18% increase in the crude incidence rate from 2015 to 2030. This incidence trend along with reductions in ESRD mortality will increase the number of patients with ESRD by 29%-68% during the same period to between 971,000 and 1,259,000 in 2030. CONCLUSIONS:The burden of ESRD will increase in the United States population through 2030 due to demographic, clinical, and lifestyle shifts in the population and improvements in RRT. Planning for ESRD resource allocation should allow for substantial continued growth in the population of patients with ESRD. Future interventions should be directed to preventing the progression of CKD to kidney failure.
| S-EPMC6317596 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Primary liver cancer (PLC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide and the second most common cause of cancer death. Future predictions can inform health planners and raise awareness of the need for cancer control action. We predicted the future burden of PLC in 30 countries around 2030. Incident cases of PLC (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, C22) were obtained from 30 countries for 1993-2007. We projected new PLC cases to 2030 using age-period-cohort models (NORDPRED software). Age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated by country and sex. Increases in new cases and rates of PLC are projected in both sexes. The largest increases in rates are, among men, in Norway (2.9% per annum), US whites (2.6%), and Canada (2.4%) and, among women, in the United States (blacks 4.0%), Switzerland (3.4%), and Germany (3.0%). The projected declines are in China, Japan, Singapore, and parts of Europe (e.g., Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia). A 35% increase in the number of new cases annually is expected compared to 2005. This increasing burden reflects both increasing rates (and the underlying prevalence of risk factors) and demographic changes. Japan is the only country with a predicted decline in the net number of cases and annual rates by 2030. Conclusion: Our reporting of a projected increase in PLC incidence to 2030 in 30 countries serves as a baseline for anticipated declines in the longer term through the control of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections by vaccination and treatment; however, the prospect that rising levels of obesity and its metabolic complications may lead to an increased risk of PLC that potentially offsets these gains is a concern. (Hepatology 2018;67:600-611).
| S-EPMC5832532 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background'Indirect' causes of maternal death including concomitant illnesses such as infectious and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), accounted for 23% of maternal deaths in Indonesia in 2010. Reproductive-age women in Indonesia face a "double burden" of disease with increasing rates of NCDs and persisting rates of infectious disease. However, there is a lack of data on the burden of these diseases in pregnancy. The aim of this study was to estimate incidence of concomitant illnesses among pregnant women in Indonesia from 1990-2030.MethodsPublicly available data was accessed including incidence of concomitant illnesses in Indonesian reproductive-age women, population data and crude birth rate data from 1990-2019, and formed basis for projections to 2030. A dataset of estimates for all variables was generated for each year and sampled from a binomial distribution. Using these estimates, pregnancy estimates and incidence in pregnant women were calculated. A cubic splines model was fitted to generate estimates of incidence of concomitant illnesses in pregnancy.FindingsPast trends to 2019 show a decline in incident cases of infectious diseases except for HIV/AIDs, and an increase in most NCDs. In 2019, the most common disease was sexually transmitted infections. From 2020-2030, incidences of diabetes and lower respiratory infections are estimated to continue to increase.InterpretationWith an increasing incidence of NCDs and high-incidence of infectious diseases in pregnancy, Indonesian policymakers and stakeholders should consider what evidence-based strategies and interventions are best to reduce potential impacts of concomitant illnesses on pregnancy outcomes.FundingAustralian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.
| S-EPMC8315454 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Illumina Infinium 27k Human DNA methylation Beadchip v1.2 was used to obtain DNA methylation profiles across approximately 27,000 CpGs in whole blood samples from 540 samples, of which 266 were samples taken from postmenopausal women with ovarian cancer and 274 were from age-matched healthy controls Keywords: DNA methylation Bisulphite converted DNA from the 540 samples were hybridised to the Illumina Infinium 27k Human Methylation Beadchip v1.2
2010-05-07 | E-GEOD-19711 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:PurposeHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates have been increasing in the United States for the past 35 years. Because HCC has a poor prognosis, quantitative forecasts could help to inform prevention and treatment strategies to reduce the incidence and burden of HCC.MethodsSingle-year HCC incident case and population data for the years 2000 to 2012 and ages 35 to 84 years were obtained from the SEER 18 Registry Database. We forecast incident HCC cases through 2030, using novel age-period-cohort models and stratifying by sex, race/ethnicity, and age. Rates are presented because absolute numbers may be influenced by population increases.ResultsRates of HCC increased with each successive birth cohort through 1959. However, rates began to decrease with the 1960 to 1969 birth cohorts. Asians/Pacific Islanders (APIs) have had the highest HCC rates in the United States for many years, but the rates have stabilized and begun to decline in recent years. Between 2013 and 2030, rates among APIs are forecast to decline further, with estimated annual percentage changes of -1.59% among men and -2.20% among women. Thus, by 2030, Asians are forecast to have the lowest incidence rates among men, and Hispanics are forecast to have the highest rates among men (age-standardized rate, 44.2). Blacks are forecast to have the highest rate among women (age-standardized rate, 12.82).ConclusionAlthough liver cancer has long had some of the most rapidly increasing incidence rates, the decreasing rates seen among APIs, individuals younger than 65 years, and cohorts born after 1960 suggest that there will be declines in incidence of HCC in future years. Prevention efforts should be focused on individuals in the 1950 to 1959 birth cohorts, Hispanics, and blacks.
| S-EPMC4966339 | biostudies-literature