Dataset Information

"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.

ABSTRACT: Recently, the "hot hand" phenomenon regained interest due to the availability and accessibility of large scale data sets from the world of sports. In support of common wisdom and in contrast to the original conclusions of the seminal paper about this phenomenon by Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky in 1985, solid evidences were supplied in favor of the existence of this phenomenon in different kinds of data. This came after almost three decades of ongoing debates whether the "hot hand" phenomenon in sport is real or just a mis-perception of human subjects of completely random patterns present in reality. However, although this phenomenon was shown to exist in different sports data including basketball free throws and bowling strike rates, a somehow deeper question remained unanswered: are these non random patterns results of causal, short term, feedback mechanisms or simply time fluctuations of athletes performance. In this paper, we analyze large amounts of data from the Professional Bowling Association(PBA). We studied the results of the top 100 players in terms of the number of available records (summed into more than 450,000 frames). By using permutation approach and dividing the analysis into different aggregation levels we were able to supply evidence for the existence of the "hot hand" phenomenon in the data, in agreement with previous studies. Moreover, by using this approach, we were able to demonstrate that there are, indeed, significant fluctuations from game to game for the same player but there is no clustering of successes (strikes) and failures (non strikes) within each game. Thus we were lead to the conclusion that bowling results show correlation to recent past results but they are not influenced by them in a causal manner.

SUBMITTER: Yaari G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3257263 | biostudies-other | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.

Yaari Gur G David Gil G

PloS one 20120112 1

Recently, the "hot hand" phenomenon regained interest due to the availability and accessibility of large scale data sets from the world of sports. In support of common wisdom and in contrast to the original conclusions of the seminal paper about this phenomenon by Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky in 1985, solid evidences were supplied in favor of the existence of this phenomenon in different kinds of data. This came after almost three decades of ongoing debates whether the "hot hand" phenomenon in ...[more]

PMID: 22253898

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Project description:Gut microbes are considered as major factors contributing to human health. Nowadays, the vast majority of the data available in the literature are mostly exhibiting negative or positive correlations between specific bacteria and metabolic parameters. From these observations, putative detrimental or beneficial effects are then inferred. Akkermansia muciniphila is one of the unique examples for which the correlations with health benefits have been causally validated in vivo in rodents and humans. In this study, based on available metagenomic data in overweight/obese population and clinical variables that we obtained from two cohorts of individuals (n = 108) we identified several metagenomic species (MGS) strongly associated with A. muciniphila with one standing out: Subdoligranulum. By analyzing both qPCR and shotgun metagenomic data, we discovered that the abundance of Subdoligranulum was correlated positively with microbial richness and HDL-cholesterol levels and negatively correlated with fat mass, adipocyte diameter, insulin resistance, levels of leptin, insulin, CRP, and IL6 in humans. Therefore, to further explore whether these strong correlations could be translated into causation, we investigated the effects of the unique cultivated strain of Subdoligranulum (Subdoligranulum variabile DSM 15176 T) in obese and diabetic mice as a proof-of-concept. Strikingly, there were no significant difference in any of the hallmarks of obesity and diabetes measured (e.g., body weight gain, fat mass gain, glucose tolerance, liver weight, plasma lipids) at the end of the 8 weeks of treatment. Therefore, the absence of effect following the supplementation with S. variabile indicates that increasing the intestinal abundance of this bacterium is not translated into beneficial effects in mice. In conclusion, we demonstrated that despite the fact that numerous strong correlations exist between a given bacteria and health, proof-of-concept experiments are required to be further validated or not in vivo. Hence, an urgent need for causality studies is warranted to move from human observations to preclinical validations.

Dataset Information

"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.

Publications

"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.

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