Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000.
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SUBMITTER: Moolgavkar SH
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3317881 | biostudies-other | 2012 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000.
Moolgavkar Suresh H SH Holford Theodore R TR Levy David T DT Kong Chung Yin CY Foy Millenia M Clarke Lauren L Jeon Jihyoun J Hazelton William D WD Meza Rafael R Schultz Frank F McCarthy William W Boer Robert R Gorlova Olga O Gazelle G Scott GS Kimmel Marek M McMahon Pamela M PM de Koning Harry J HJ Feuer Eric J EJ
Journal of the National Cancer Institute 20120314 7
<h4>Background</h4>Considerable effort has been expended on tobacco control strategies in the United States since the mid-1950s. However, we have little quantitative information on how changes in smoking behaviors have impacted lung cancer mortality. We quantified the cumulative impact of changes in smoking behaviors that started in the mid-1950s on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975-2000.<h4>Methods</h4>A consortium of six groups of investigators used common inputs ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundConsiderable effort has been expended on tobacco control strategies in the United States since the mid-1950s. However, we have little quantitative information on how changes in smoking behaviors have impacted lung cancer mortality. We quantified the cumulative impact of changes in smoking behaviors that started in the mid-1950s on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975-2000.MethodsA consortium of six groups of investigators used common inputs consisting of simulated cohort-wise smoking histories for the birth cohorts of 1890 through 1970 and independent models to estimate the number of US lung cancer deaths averted during 1975-2000 as a result of changes in smoking behavior that began in the mid-1950s. We also estimated the number of deaths that could have been averted had tobacco control been completely effective in eliminating smoking after the Surgeon General's first report on Smoking and Health in 1964.ResultsApproximately 795,851 US lung cancer deaths were averted during the period 1975-2000: 552,574 among men and 243,277 among women. In the year 2000 alone, approximately 70,218 lung cancer deaths were averted: 44,135 among men and 26,083 among women. However, these numbers are estimated to represent approximately 32% of lung cancer deaths that could have potentially been averted during the period 1975-2000, 38% of the lung cancer deaths that could have been averted in 1991-2000, and 44% of lung cancer deaths that could have been averted in 2000.ConclusionsOur results reflect the cumulative impact of changes in smoking behavior since the 1950s. Despite a large impact of changing smoking behaviors on lung cancer deaths, lung cancer remains a major public health problem. Continued efforts at tobacco control are critical to further reduce the burden of this disease.
| S-EPMC3317881 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceLung cancer has become a leading cause of death among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH). Over 40% of PLWH in the United States smoke cigarettes; HIV independently increases the risk of lung cancer.ObjectiveTo project cumulative lung cancer mortality by smoking exposure among PLWH in care.DesignUsing a validated microsimulation model of HIV, we applied standard demographic data and recent HIV/AIDS epidemiology statistics with specific details on smoking exposure, combining smoking status (current, former, or never) and intensity (heavy, moderate, or light). We stratified reported mortality rates attributable to lung cancer and other non-AIDS-related causes by smoking exposure and accounted for an HIV-conferred independent risk of lung cancer. Lung cancer mortality risk ratios (vs never smokers) for male and female current moderate smokers were 23.6 and 24.2, respectively, and for those who quit smoking at age 40 years were 4.3 and 4.5. In sensitivity analyses, we accounted for nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and for a range of HIV-conferred risks of death from lung cancer and from other non-AIDS-related diseases (eg, cardiovascular disease).Main outcomes and measuresCumulative lung cancer mortality by age 80 years (stratified by sex, age at entry to HIV care, and smoking exposure); total expected lung cancer deaths, accounting for nonadherence to ART.ResultsAmong 40-year-old men with HIV, estimated cumulative lung cancer mortality for heavy, moderate, and light smokers who continued to smoke was 28.9%, 23.0%, and 18.8%, respectively; for those who quit smoking at age 40 years, it was 7.9%, 6.1%, and 4.3%; and for never smokers, it was 1.6%. Among women, the corresponding mortality for current smokers was 27.8%, 20.9%, and 16.6%; for former smokers, it was 7.5%, 5.2%, and 3.7%; and for never smokers, it was 1.2%. ART-adherent individuals who continued to smoke were 6 to 13 times more likely to die from lung cancer than from traditional AIDS-related causes, depending on sex and smoking intensity. Due to greater AIDS-related mortality risks, individuals with incomplete ART adherence had higher overall mortality but lower lung cancer mortality. Applying model projections to the approximately 644 200 PLWH aged 20 to 64 in care in the United States, 59 900 (9.3%) are expected to die from lung cancer if smoking habits do not change.Conclusions and relevanceThose PLWH who adhere to ART but smoke are substantially more likely to die from lung cancer than from AIDS-related causes.
| S-EPMC5675744 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionTobacco product retailers provide access to tobacco products and exposure to tobacco marketing. Without a national tobacco retailer licensing system in the United States, there are no estimates of national trends in tobacco retailer numbers and store type over time.MethodsWe developed a protocol to identify likely tobacco retailers across the United States between 2000 and 2017 using industry codes and retailer names in the annual National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database. We calculated annual counts of tobacco retailers in seven store-type categories and annual numbers of tobacco retailers that opened and closed.ResultsWe estimate that there were 317 492 tobacco product retailers in 2000; the number grew to 412 536 in 2009 before falling to 356 074 in 2017, for a net 12% increase overall. Gas/convenience stores and grocery stores accounted for more than two thirds of all retailers. On average, new openings accounted for 8.0% of the total retailers, whereas 7.3% of retailers closed or stopped selling tobacco each year, with stronger market volatility following the Great Recession. Since 2011, there was a disproportionate reduction in tobacco-selling pharmacies and an increase in both tobacco-specialty shops and tobacco-selling discount stores.ConclusionsDuring two decades when smoking declined, tobacco retailer availability increased in the United States. The economic climate, corporate and public policies, and new tobacco products may all contribute to trends in tobacco retailer availability. State and local jurisdictions considering tobacco retailer policies may find retailer trend information useful for forecasting or evaluating potential policy impacts.ImplicationsThis study provides historic data tracking tobacco retailers in the United States between 2000 and 2017, documenting trends that unfolded as the general economic market contracted and grew, with greater regulation of the tobacco retailer environment. These data provide a context for better understanding future changes in the tobacco retailer market. In addition, the protocol established in this study could be applied in any US-based location without tobacco retailer licensing to allow identification of stores and tracking of trends.
| S-EPMC8666124 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Tobacco use became an ingrained habit in the United States (US) following the First World War and a large proportion of physicians, similar to the general population, were smokers. The period from 1949 to 1984 was a pivotal era of change however, as the medical profession, like the society it served, became increasingly aware of the dangers that tobacco incurred for health. METHODS:An extensive review targeted all manuscripts published in academic journals between 1949 and 1984 that related to tobacco smoking among US physicians. The study was undertaken in 2007-08 with an internet search of relevant medical databases, after which time the reference lists of manuscripts were also examined to find additional articles. RESULTS:A total of 57 manuscripts met the inclusion criteria. From a research perspective, the methodology and coverage of smoking surveys ranged from detailed national investigations, to local medical association surveys, and journal readership questionnaires. From a historical perspective, it can be seen that by the 1950s many US physicians had begun questioning the safety of tobacco products, and by the 1960s and 1970s, this had resulted in a continuous decline in tobacco use. By the 1980s, few US physicians were still smoking, and many of their younger demographic had probably never smoked at all. CONCLUSION:Although the quality and coverage of historical surveys varied over time, a review of their main results indicates a clear and consistent decline in tobacco use among US physicians between 1949 and 1984. Much can be learned from this pivotal era of public health, where the importance of scientific knowledge, professional leadership and social responsibility helped set positive examples in the fight against tobacco.
| S-EPMC2556033 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionTobacco policies that limit the sale of cigarettes to minors and restrict smoking in public places are important strategies to deter youth from accessing and consuming cigarettes.MethodsWe examined the relationship of youth cigarette smoking status to state-level youth access and clean indoor air laws, controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and cigarette price. Data were analyzed from the 2001 to 2002 U.S. Health Behavior in School-Aged Children survey, a cross-sectional survey conducted with a nationally representative sample of 13,339 students in the United States.ResultsCompared with students living in states with strict regulations, those living in states with no or minimal restrictions, particularly high school students, were more likely to be daily smokers. These effects were somewhat reduced when logistic regressions were adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and cigarette price, suggesting that higher cigarette prices may discourage youth to access and consume cigarettes independent of other tobacco control measures.DiscussionStrict tobacco control legislation could decrease the potential of youth experimenting with cigarettes or becoming daily smokers. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that smoking policies, particularly clean indoor air provisions, reduce smoking prevalence among high school students.
| S-EPMC2699932 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Primary breast lymphoma (PBL) has gained attention with the description of breast implant-associated anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALCL). Less is known about PBL incidence, treatment, and survival by lymphoma subtype. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry database was queried for patients with PBL as first malignancy, with attention to non-Hodgkin Lymphoma PBL subtypes: diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), follicular lymphoma, marginal zone lymphoma (MZL), and ALCL. Incidence was estimated by age and subtype with joinpoint analyses, along with initial local therapy. Five-year relative and overall survival estimates were compared using z and two-sided log-rank tests. PBL incidence (per 1 000 000 women) increased from 0.66 (1975-1977) to 2.96 (2011-2013) with an annual percentage change (APC) of 5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.8% to 6.9%, P < .001) from 1975 to 1999 and no statistically significant change thereafter. Incidence continues to increase for women younger than age 50 years (APC = 2.8%, 95% CI = 1.0% to 4.6%, P = .003) and for ALCL-PBL (APC = 11.8%, 95% CI = 0.2% to 24.9%, P = .047) and MZL-PBL (APC = 2.3%, 95% CI = -0.2% to 4.9%, P = .07), with the latter increasing significantly from 1995 to 2013 (APC = 7.5%, 95% CI = 3.4% to 11.8%, P = .001). Surgery and surgery with radiation declined from 2000 to 2013 as initial local therapy for PBL. Five-year relative survival for PBL improved markedly over four decades and was superior for stage I DLBCL-PBL and stage I follicular PBL than for corresponding systemic presentations. PBL has increased in incidence over the last four decades and continues to increase for younger women and for some subtypes. The rise in imaging and procedures to the breast might enhance diagnostic sensitivity for PBL. Further study of the etiologies of PBL is needed.
| S-EPMC6059147 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:Tobacco control efforts implemented in the United States since the 1960s have led to considerable reductions in smoking and smoking-related diseases, including lung cancer. Objective:To project reductions in tobacco use and lung cancer mortality from 2015 to 2065 due to existing tobacco control efforts. Design:Comparative modeling approach using 4 simulation models of the natural history of lung cancer that explicitly relate temporal smoking patterns to lung cancer rates. Setting:U.S. population, 1964 to 2065. Participants:Adults aged 30 to 84 years. Measurements:Models were developed using U.S. data on smoking (1964 to 2015) and lung cancer mortality (1969 to 2010). Each model projected lung cancer mortality by smoking status under the assumption that current decreases in smoking would continue into the future (status quo trends). Sensitivity analyses examined optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Results:Under the assumption of continued decreases in smoking, age-adjusted lung cancer mortality was projected to decrease by 79% between 2015 and 2065. Concomitantly, and despite the expected growth, aging, and longer life expectancy of the U.S. population, the annual number of lung cancer deaths was projected to decrease from 135 000 to 50 000 (63% reduction). However, 4.4 million deaths from lung cancer are still projected to occur in the United States from 2015 to 2065, with about 20 million adults aged 30 to 84 years continuing to smoke in 2065. Limitation:Projections assumed no changes to tobacco control efforts in the future and did not explicitly consider the potential effect of lung cancer screening. Conclusion:Tobacco control efforts implemented since the 1960s will continue to reduce lung cancer rates well into the next half-century. Additional prevention and cessation efforts will be required to sustain and expand these gains to further reduce the lung cancer burden in the United States. Primary Funding Source:National Cancer Institute.
| S-EPMC6242740 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAssessing cumulative effects of the multiple environmental factors influencing mortality remains a challenging task.ObjectivesThis study aimed to examine the associations between cumulative environmental quality and all-cause and leading cause-specific (heart disease, cancer, and stroke) mortality rates.MethodsWe used the overall Environmental Quality Index (EQI) and its five domain indices (air, water, land, built, and sociodemographic) to represent environmental exposure. Associations between the EQI and mortality rates (CDC WONDER) for counties in the contiguous United States (n = 3,109) were investigated using multiple linear regression models and random intercept and random slope hierarchical models. Urbanicity, climate, and a combination of the two were used to explore the spatial patterns in the associations.ResultsWe found 1 standard deviation increase in the overall EQI (worse environment) was associated with a mean 3.22% (95% CI: 2.80%, 3.64%) increase in all-cause mortality, a 0.54% (95% CI: -0.17%, 1.25%) increase in heart disease mortality, a 2.71% (95% CI: 2.21%, 3.22%) increase in cancer mortality, and a 2.25% (95% CI: 1.11%, 3.39%) increase in stroke mortality. Among the environmental domains, the associations ranged from -1.27% (95% CI: -1.70%, -0.84%) to 3.37% (95% CI: 2.90%, 3.84%) for all-cause mortality, -2.62% (95% CI: -3.52%, -1.73%) to 4.50% (95% CI: 3.73%, 5.27%) for heart disease mortality, -0.88% (95% CI: -2.12%, 0.36%) to 3.72% (95% CI: 2.38%, 5.06%) for stroke mortality, and -0.68% (95% CI: -1.19%, -0.18%) to 3.01% (95% CI: 2.46%, 3.56%) for cancer mortality. Air had the largest associations with all-cause, heart disease, and cancer mortality, whereas the sociodemographic index had the largest association with stroke mortality. Across the urbanicity gradient, no consistent trend was found. Across climate regions, the associations ranged from 2.29% (95% CI: 1.87%, 2.72%) to 5.30% (95% CI: 4.30%, 6.30%) for overall EQI, and larger associations were generally found in dry areas for both overall EQI and domain indices.ConclusionsThese results suggest that poor environmental quality, particularly poor air quality, was associated with increased mortality and that associations vary by urbanicity and climate region. Citation: Jian Y, Messer LC, Jagai JS, Rappazzo KM, Gray CL, Grabich SC, Lobdell DT. 2017. Associations between environmental quality and mortality in the contiguous United States, 2000-2005. Environ Health Perspect 125:355-362;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP119.
| S-EPMC5332172 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe United States (U.S.) suffers from high infant mortality (IM) rates and there are significant racial/ethnic differences in these rates. Prior studies on the environment and infant mortality are generally limited to singular exposures. We utilize the Environmental Quality Index (EQI), a measure of cumulative environmental exposure (across air, water, land, sociodemographic, and land domains) for U.S. counties from 2000 to 2005, to investigate associations between ambient environment and IM across maternal race/ethnicity.MethodsWe linked 2000-2005 infant data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to the EQI (n = 22,702,529; 144,741 deaths). We utilized multi-level regression to estimate associations between quartiles of county-level EQI and IM. We also considered associations between quartiles of county level domain specific indices with IM. We controlled for rural-urban status (RUCC1: urban, metropolitan; RUCC2: urban, non-metropolitan; RUCC3: less urbanized; RUCC4: thinly populated), maternal age, maternal education, marital status, infant sex, and stratified on race/ethnicity. Additionally, we estimated associations for linear combinations of environmental quality and rural-urban status.ResultsWe found a mix of positive, negative, and null associations and our findings varied across domain and race/ethnicity. Poorer overall environmental quality was associated with decreased odds among Non-Hispanic whites (OR and 95% CI: EQIQ4 (ref. EQIQ1): 0.84[0.80,0.89]). For Non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics, some increased odds were observed. Poorer air quality was monotonically associated with increased odds among Non-Hispanic whites (airQ4 (ref. airQ1): 1.05[0.99,1.11]) and blacks (airQ4 (ref. airQ1): 1.09 [0.9,1.31]). Rural status was associated with increased IM odds among Hispanics (RUCC4-Q4:1.36[1.04,1.78]; RUCC1-Q4: 1.04[0.92,1.16], ref. for both RUCC1-Q1).ConclusionsThis study is the first to report on associations between ambient environmental quality and IM across the United States. It corroborates prior research suggesting an association between air pollution and IM and identifies residence in thinly populated (rural) areas as a potential risk factor towards IM amongst Hispanics. Some of the counterintuitive findings highlight the need for additional research into potentially differential drivers of environmental quality across the rural-urban continuum, especially with regards to the sociodemographic environment.
| S-EPMC6191999 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The disease risks from cigarette smoking increased in the United States over most of the 20th century, first among male smokers and later among female smokers. Whether these risks have continued to increase during the past 20 years is unclear.We measured temporal trends in mortality across three time periods (1959-1965, 1982-1988, and 2000-2010), comparing absolute and relative risks according to sex and self-reported smoking status in two historical cohort studies and in five pooled contemporary cohort studies, among participants who became 55 years of age or older during follow-up.For women who were current smokers, as compared with women who had never smoked, the relative risks of death from lung cancer were 2.73, 12.65, and 25.66 in the 1960s, 1980s, and contemporary cohorts, respectively; corresponding relative risks for male current smokers, as compared with men who had never smoked, were 12.22, 23.81, and 24.97. In the contemporary cohorts, male and female current smokers also had similar relative risks for death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (25.61 for men and 22.35 for women), ischemic heart disease (2.50 for men and 2.86 for women), any type of stroke (1.92 for men and 2.10 for women), and all causes combined (2.80 for men and 2.76 for women). Mortality from COPD among male smokers continued to increase in the contemporary cohorts in nearly all the age groups represented in the study and within each stratum of duration and intensity of smoking. Among men 55 to 74 years of age and women 60 to 74 years of age, all-cause mortality was at least three times as high among current smokers as among those who had never smoked. Smoking cessation at any age dramatically reduced death rates.The risk of death from cigarette smoking continues to increase among women and the increased risks are now nearly identical for men and women, as compared with persons who have never smoked. Among men, the risks associated with smoking have plateaued at the high levels seen in the 1980s, except for a continuing, unexplained increase in mortality from COPD.
| S-EPMC3632080 | biostudies-literature