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Five-year longitudinal assessment of the downstream impact on schistosomiasis transmission following closure of the Three Gorges Dam.

ABSTRACT: Schistosoma japonicum is a major public health concern in the Peoples' Republic of China (PRC), with about 800,000 people infected and another 50 million living in areas at risk of infection. Based on ecological, environmental, population genetic and molecular factors, schistosomiasis transmission in PRC can be categorised into four discrete ecosystems or transmission modes. It is predicted that, long-term, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) will impact upon the transmission of schistosomiasis in the PRC, with varying degree across the four transmission modes.We undertook longitudinal surveillance from 2002 to 2006 in sentinel villages of the three transmission modes below the TGD across four provinces (Hunan, Jiangxi, Hubei and Anhui) to determine whether there was any immediate impact of the TGD on schistosomiasis transmission. Eight sentinel villages were selected to represent both province and transmission mode. The primary end point measured was human incidence. Here we present the results of this five-year longitudinal cohort study. Results showed that the incidence of human S. japonicum infection declined considerably within individual villages and overall mode over the course of the study. This is also reflected in the yearly odds ratios (adjusted) for infection risk that showed significant (P<0.01) downward trends in all modes over the follow-up period.The decrease in human S. japonicum incidence observed across all transmission modes in this study can probably be attributed to the annual human and bovine PZQ chemotherapy. If an increase in schistosome transmission had occurred as a result of the TGD, it would be of negligible size compared to the treatment induced decline seen here. It appears therefore that there has been virtually no immediate impact of the TGD on schistosomiasis transmission downstream of the dam.

SUBMITTER: Gray DJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3323517 | biostudies-other | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Five-year longitudinal assessment of the downstream impact on schistosomiasis transmission following closure of the Three Gorges Dam.

Gray Darren J DJ Thrift Aaron P AP Williams Gail M GM Zheng Feng F Li Yue-Sheng YS Guo Jiagang J Chen Honggen H Wang Tianping T Xu Xin Jiang XJ Zhu Rong R Zhu Hongqing H Cao Chun Li CL Lin Dan Dan DD Zhao Zhen Yuan ZY Li Robert S RS Davis George M GM McManus Donald P DP

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20120410 4

<h4>Background</h4>Schistosoma japonicum is a major public health concern in the Peoples' Republic of China (PRC), with about 800,000 people infected and another 50 million living in areas at risk of infection. Based on ecological, environmental, population genetic and molecular factors, schistosomiasis transmission in PRC can be categorised into four discrete ecosystems or transmission modes. It is predicted that, long-term, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) will impact upon the transmission of schist ...[more]

PMID: 22506083

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Project description:BackgroundSnail abundance varies spatially and temporally. Few studies have elucidated the different effects of the determinants affecting snail density between upstream and downstream areas of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). We therefore investigated the differential drivers of changes in snail density in these areas, as well as the spatial-temporal effects of these changes.MethodsA snail survey was conducted at 200 sites over a 5-year period to monitor dynamic changes in snail abundance within the Yangtze River basin. Data on corresponding variables that might affect snail abundance, such as meteorology, vegetation, terrain and economy, were collected from multiple data sources. A Bayesian spatial-temporal modeling framework was constructed to explore the differential determinants driving the change in snail density and the spatial-temporal effects of the change.ResultsVolatility in snail density was unambiguously detected in the downstream area of the TGD, while a small increment in volatility was detected in the upstream area. Regarding the downstream area of the TGD, snail density was positively associated with the average minimum temperature in January of the same year, the annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the previous year and the second, third and fourth quartile, respectively, of average annual relative humidity of the previous year. Snail density was negatively associated with the average maximum temperature in July of the previous year and annual nighttime light of the previous year. An approximately inverted "U" curve of relative risk was detected among sites with a greater average annual ground surface temperature in the previous year. Regarding the upstream area, snail density was positively associated with NDVI and with the second, third and fourth quartile, respectively, of total precipitation of the previous year. Snail density was negatively associated with slope.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated a rebound in snail density between 2015 and 2019. In particular, temperature, humidity, vegetation and human activity were the main drivers affecting snail abundance in the downstream area of the TGD, while precipitation, slope and vegetation were the main drivers affecting snail abundance in the upstream area. These findings can assist authorities to develop and perform more precise strategies for surveys and control of snail populations.

Project description:In 2009, Mekele, the capital of the Tigray Region in Ethiopia, presented a mean prevalence of 44.7% of schistosomiasis (S. mansoni) in school children. Termed a public health problem, NALA, an international public health non-governmental organization, and their partners implemented a novel model of intervention, which aimed to compliment mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns with behavioral change (BC) and improved sanitation to achieve sustained elimination of schistosomiasis. The four-year intervention (2009-2012) covered 38 primary schools. The objective of this study was to examine factors associated with control or resurgence of the disease, and the association between the behavioral change program and disease prevalence, ten years after initiation. Eleven primary schools were selected for this follow-up study. All students provided a stool sample and filled in a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) questionnaire. In seven out of eleven schools (63.6%) the prevalence of schistosomiasis was maintained below 2% ten years after the initiation of the intervention. In four schools, prevalence returned to pre-intervention levels, defining them as persistent hot spots (PHS). Students from PHS schools scored lower on KAP questionnaires compared to students from responder schools; 3.9 ± 0.9 vs. 4.2 ± 0.9 (p-value < 0.001) for practice questions and 4.4 ± 1.4 vs. 4.6 ± 1.5 (p-value = 0.03) for attitude questions. The prevalence of schistosomiasis correlated positively with age, (p-value = 0.049), sex (relative risk = 1.7, p-value < 0.001), and location. Semi-urban locations (n = 382) had higher disease prevalence than urban locations (n = 242), (22.7% vs. 5.5%, p-value < 0.001). Students residing in semi-urban areas and close to a river (<500 m) were at higher risk of contracting schistosomiasis than those living in urban areas far from the river (RR = 5.95, p-value < 0.001). Finally, a correlation between prevalence and proximity of schools to rivers was found (semi-urban areas; RR = -0.91, p-value = 0.001 vs. urban areas; RR = -0.51, p-value = 0.001). Soil-transmitted-helminths prevalence in 2009 was 8.1% and declined during the intervention years to 0.5%. Prevalence in 2018 was found to be stable at 0.8%. These results demonstrate the long-term success of NALAs' comprehensive model of intervention for elimination of schistosomiasis in school children, combining behavioral change and improved sanitation with MDA.

Project description:BACKGROUND: In this study, we aim to identify key climatic factors that are associated with the transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus in areas located near the Three Gorges Dam, between 1997 and 2008. METHODS: We identified three geographical regions of Chongqing, based on their distance from the Three Gorges Dam. Collectively, the three regions consisted of 12 districts from which study information was collected. Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression models were run to identify key climatic factors of the transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus for both the whole study area and for each individual region; linear regression models were conducted to examine the fluctuation of climatic variables over time during the construction of the Three Gorges Dam. RESULTS: Between 1997 and 2008, the incidence of Japanese encephalitis decreased throughout the entire city of Chongqing, with noticeable variations taking place in 2000, 2001 and 2006. The eastern region, which is closest to the Three Gorges Dam, suffered the highest incidence of Japanese encephalitis, while the western region experienced the lowest incidence. Linear regression models revealed that there were seasonal fluctuations of climatic variables during this period. Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression models indicated a significant positive association between temperature (with a lag of 1 and 3 months) and Japanese encephalitis incidence, and a significant negative association between rainfall (with a lag of 0 and 4 months) and Japanese encephalitis incidence. CONCLUSION: The spatial and temporal trends of Japanese encephalitis incidence that occurred in the City of Chongqing were associated with temperature and rainfall. Seasonal fluctuations of climatic variables during this period were also observed. Additional studies that focus on long-term data collection are needed to validate the findings of this study and to further explore the effects of the Three Gorges Dam on Japanese encephalitis and other related diseases.

Dataset Information

Five-year longitudinal assessment of the downstream impact on schistosomiasis transmission following closure of the Three Gorges Dam.

Publications

Five-year longitudinal assessment of the downstream impact on schistosomiasis transmission following closure of the Three Gorges Dam.

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