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Nomogram prediction for overall survival of patients diagnosed with cervical cancer.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Nomograms are predictive tools that are widely used for estimating cancer prognosis. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for the prediction of overall survival (OS) in patients diagnosed with cervical cancer. METHODS: Cervical cancer databases of two large institutions were analysed. Overall survival was defined as the clinical endpoint and OS probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Based on the results of survival analyses and previous studies, relevant covariates were identified, a nomogram was constructed and validated using bootstrap cross-validation. Discrimination of the nomogram was quantified with the concordance probability. RESULTS: In total, 528 consecutive patients with invasive cervical cancer, who had all nomogram variables available, were identified. Mean 5-year OS rates for patients with International Federation of Gynecologists and Obstetricians (FIGO) stage IA, IB, II, III, and IV were 99.0%, 88.6%, 65.8%, 58.7%, and 41.5%, respectively. Seventy-six cancer-related deaths were observed during the follow-up period. FIGO stage, tumour size, age, histologic subtype, lymph node ratio, and parametrial involvement were selected as nomogram covariates. The prognostic performance of the model exceeded that of FIGO stage alone and the model's estimated optimism-corrected concordance probability was 0.723, indicating accurate prediction of OS. We present the prediction model as nomogram and provide a web-based risk calculator (http://www.ccc.ac.at/gcu). CONCLUSION: Based on six easily available parameters, a novel statistical model to predict OS of patients diagnosed with cervical cancer was constructed and validated. The model was implemented in a nomogram and provides accurate prediction of individual patients' prognosis useful for patient counselling and deciding on follow-up strategies.

SUBMITTER: Polterauer S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3464766 | biostudies-other | 2012 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:Aims. This study is aimed at identifying a prognostic signature for cervical cancer. Main Methods. The gene expression data and clinical information of cervical cancer and normal cervical tissues were acquired from The Cancer Genome Atlas and from three datasets of the Gene Expression Omnibus database. DESeq2 and Limma were employed to screen differentially expressed genes (DEGs). The overlapping DEGs among all datasets were considered the final DEGs. Then, the functional enrichment analysis was performed. Moreover, the Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to establish a prognostic signature of the DEGs. The Kaplan-Meier analysis was applied to test the model. Relationships between gene expression and clinicopathological parameters in cervical cancer, including age, HPV status, histology, stage, and lymph node metastasis, were analysed by the chi-square test. The somatic mutations of these prognostic genes were assessed through cBioPortal. The robustness of the model was verified in another two independent validation cohorts. Key Findings. In total, 169 overlapping upregulated genes and 29 overlapping downregulated genes were identified in cervical cancer compared with normal cervical tissues. Functional enrichment analysis indicated that the DEGs were mainly enriched in DNA replication, the cell cycle, and the p53 signalling pathway. Finally, a 5-gene- (ITM2A, DSG2, SPP1, EFNA1, and MMP1) based prognostic signature was built. According to this model, each patient was given a prognostic-related risk value. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that a higher risk was related to worse overall survival in cervical cancer, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.811 for 15 years. The validity of this model in the prediction of cervical cancer outcome was verified in another two independent datasets. In addition, our study also found that the low expression of ITM2A was associated with cervical adenocarcinoma. Interestingly, DSG2 was associated with the HPV status of cervical cancer. Significance. Our study constructed a prognostic model in cervical cancer and discovered two novel genes, ITM2A and DSG2, associated with cervical carcinogenesis and survival.

Project description:Aims: This study aims to develop a prediction tool for the overall survival of cervical cancer patients. Methods: We obtained 4116 female patients diagnosed with cervical cancer aged 25-69 during 2008-2019 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The overall survival between groups was illustrated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by a log-rank test adjusted by the Bonferroni-Holm method. We first performed the multivariate Cox regression analysis to evaluate the predictive values of the variables. A prediction model was created using cox regression based on the training set, and the model was presented as a nomogram. The proposed nomogram was designed to predict the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year overall survival of patients with cervical cancer. Besides the c-index, time-dependent receiver operating curves, and calibration curves were created to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram at the timepoint of one year, three years, and five years. Results: With a median follow-up of 54 (28, 92) months, 1045 (25.39%) patients were deceased. Compared with alive individuals, the deceased were significantly older and the primary site was more likely to be the cervix uteri site, large tumor size, higher grade, and higher combined summary stage (all p values < 0.001). In the multivariate Cox regression, age at diagnosis, race, tumor size, grade, combined summary stage, pathology, and surgery treatment were significantly associated with the all-cause mortality for patients with cervical cancer. The proposed nomogram showed good performance with a C-index of 0.82 in the training set. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year areas under the curves (with 95% confidence interval) of the receiver operating curves were 0.88 (0.84, 0.91), 0.84 (0.81, 0.87), and 0.83 (0.80, 0.86), respectively. Conclusions: This study develops a prediction nomogram model for the overall survival of cervical cancer patients with a good performance. Further studies are required to validate the prediction model further.

Project description:BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with a dismal prognosis, and prediction of the prognosis of HCC can assist in therapeutic decision-makings. An increasing number of studies have shown that the texture parameters of images can reflect the heterogeneity of tumors, and may have the potential to predict the prognosis of patients with HCC after surgical resection. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) texture parameters in patients with HCC after hepatectomy and to develop a radiomics nomogram by combining clinicopathological factors and the radiomics signature.MethodsIn all, 544 eligible patients were enrolled in this retrospective study and were randomly divided into the training cohort (n = 381) and the validation cohort (n = 163). The tumor regions of interest (ROIs) were delineated, and the corresponding texture parameters were extracted. The texture parameters were selected by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox model in the training cohort, and a radiomics signature was established. Then, the radiomics signature was further validated as an independent risk factor for overall survival (OS). The radiomics nomogram was established based on the Cox regression model. The concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the radiomics nomogram.ResultsThe radiomics signature was formulated based on 7 OS-related texture parameters, which were selected in the training cohort. In addition, the radiomics nomogram was developed based on the following five variables: α-fetoprotein (AFP), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), largest tumor size, microvascular invasion (MVI) and radiomics score (Rad-score). The nomogram displayed good accuracy in predicting OS (C-index = 0.747) in the training cohort and was confirmed in the validation cohort (C-index = 0.777). The calibration plots also showed excellent agreement between the actual and predicted survival probabilities. The DCA indicated that the radiomics nomogram showed better clinical utility than the clinicopathologic nomogram.ConclusionThe radiomics signature is a potential prognostic biomarker of HCC after hepatectomy. The radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature can provide a more accurate estimation of OS than the clinicopathologic nomogram for HCC patients after hepatectomy.

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Nomogram prediction for overall survival of patients diagnosed with cervical cancer.

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