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Predictors of business return in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

ABSTRACT: We analyzed the business reopening process in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, which hit the region on August 29, 2005, to better understand what the major predictors were and how their impacts changed through time. A telephone survey of businesses in New Orleans was conducted in October 2007, 26 months after Hurricane Katrina. The data were analyzed using a modified spatial probit regression model to evaluate the importance of each predictor variable through time. The results suggest that the two most important reopening predictors throughout all time periods were the flood depth at the business location and business size as represented by its wages in a logarithmic form. Flood depth was a significant negative predictor and had the largest marginal effects on the reopening probabilities. Smaller businesses had lower reopening probabilities than larger ones. However, the nonlinear response of business size to the reopening probability suggests that recovery aid would be most effective for smaller businesses than for larger ones. The spatial spillovers effect was a significant positive predictor but only for the first nine months. The findings show clearly that flood protection is the overarching issue for New Orleans. A flood protection plan that reduces the vulnerability and length of flooding would be the first and foremost step to mitigate the negative effects from climate-related hazards and enable speedy recovery. The findings cast doubt on the current coastal protection efforts and add to the current debate of whether coastal Louisiana will be sustainable or too costly to protect from further land loss and flooding given the threat of sea-level rise. Finally, a plan to help small businesses to return would also be an effective strategy for recovery, and the temporal window of opportunity that generates the greatest impacts would be the first 6?9 months after the disaster.

SUBMITTER: Lam NS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3480509 | biostudies-other | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Predictors of business return in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

Lam Nina S N NS Arenas Helbert H Pace Kelley K LeSage James J Campanella Richard R

PloS one 20121024 10

We analyzed the business reopening process in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, which hit the region on August 29, 2005, to better understand what the major predictors were and how their impacts changed through time. A telephone survey of businesses in New Orleans was conducted in October 2007, 26 months after Hurricane Katrina. The data were analyzed using a modified spatial probit regression model to evaluate the importance of each predictor variable through time. The results suggest that t ...[more]

PMID: 23133530

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Empirical observations on how businesses respond after a major catastrophe are rare, especially for a catastrophe as great as Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans, Louisiana on August 29, 2005. We analyzed repeated telephone surveys of New Orleans businesses conducted in December 2005, June 2006, and October 2007 to understand factors that influenced decisions to re-open amid post-disaster uncertainty. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Businesses in the group of professional, scientific, and technical services reopened the fastest in the near term, but differences in the rate of reopening for businesses stratified by type became indistinguishable in the longer term (around two years later). A reopening rate of 65% was found for all businesses by October 2007. Discriminant analysis showed significant differences in responses reflecting their attitudes about important factors between businesses that reopened and those that did not. Businesses that remained closed at the time of our third survey (two years after Katrina) ranked levee protection as the top concern immediately after Katrina, but damage to their premises and financing became major concerns in subsequent months reflected in the later surveys. For businesses that had opened (at the time of our third survey), infrastructure protection including levee, utility, and communications were the main concerns mentioned in surveys up to the third survey, when the issue of crime became their top concern. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings underscore the need to have public policy and emergency plans in place prior to the actual disaster, such as infrastructure protection, so that the policy can be applied in a timely manner before business decisions to return or close are made. Our survey results, which include responses from both open and closed businesses, overcome the "survivorship bias" problem and provide empirical observations that should be useful to improve micro-level spatial economic modeling of factors that influence business return decisions.

Project description:Besides their common link with unemployment, unemployment benefits are also relevant to the decision to become an entrepreneur. We thoroughly explored this relationship for a panel of 23 EU countries over the period 2001–2019. Our results demonstrate that generous unemployment compensations hinder entrepreneurial initiative, and those opportunity entrepreneurs, who are more likely to create new jobs and innovation, are affected more. Contrary to common belief, we find an unequal pattern of effects, with higher benefits being more detrimental at the beginning of the unemployment spell. A favourable policy framework results in being relevant for entrepreneurial endeavours on its own; in addition, high-quality policies and programmes for entrepreneurs are found to temper the negative effects of large unemployment benefits on new business creation during long unemployment spells. Our results support the call for properly designed unemployment benefit systems (as both level and time pattern) that ensure an optimum balance between adequate income replacement and poverty prevention, on the one hand, and limited side effects on new venture creation, on the other hand. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11187-023-00735-9. Plain English Summary Generous unemployment payments can either “make or break you”! In simple words, while social benefits may contribute to income support and poverty prevention among the unemployed, these can also harm the economy by breaking one of its most important engines: entrepreneurship. By focusing on 23 EU countries, the paper highlights a negative impact of unemployment compensations on overall but also opportunity entrepreneurs, while the effects on necessity entrepreneurs are inconclusive. New business creation is inhibited when unemployment benefit systems offer generous compensations, especially at the beginning of the unemployment spell. At long unemployment durations, high-quality policies and programmes for entrepreneurs efficiently act towards diminishing such side effects. Our findings suggest that, when choosing the design features of social security systems, policymakers should definitely consider their adverse impact on entrepreneurship. Even when unemployment benefits are large, their side effects could be limited by compensatory measures, such as stricter job-search requirements or allowing unemployed individuals to keep receiving compensation while in the process of creating a new business. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11187-023-00735-9.

Project description:BackgroundThe risk of sustaining a graft rupture after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) is high. Contributing risk factors are, however, still not clearly identified.ObjectiveThe aim of this systematic review was to identify and quantify risk factors for graft rupture after ACLR.MethodsA systematic review with meta-analysis (PROSPERO CRD42020140129) based on PRISMA guidelines was performed. MEDLINE, CINAHL and EMBASE were searched from inception to September 2021. Prospective and retrospective studies addressing risk factors for graft rupture after ACLR in males/females of all ages were considered. Meta-analyses using a random effect model (effect measure: odds ratio [OR] with 95% confidence interval [CI]) were performed. The GRADE tool was used to assess evidence quality.ResultsFollowing full-text screening of 310 relevant papers, 117 were eventually included, incorporating up to 133,000 individuals in each meta-analysis. Higher Tegner activity level (≥ 7 vs < 7) at primary injury (OR 3.91, 95% CI 1.69-9.04), increased tibial slope (degrees) (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.26-3.86), lower psychological readiness to return to sport (RTS) (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.32-3.61), early surgery (< 12 vs ≥ 12 months) (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.58-2.22), RTS (pre-injury level) (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.21-2.91) and family history of ACL injury (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.34-2.31) were all associated with increased odds of graft rupture. Higher age (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.39-0.59), female sex (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79-0.98), fewer self-reported knee symptoms pre-reconstruction (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.69-0.95) and concomitant cartilage injuries (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.62-0.79) instead decreased the odds. Meta-analysis revealed no association between body mass index, smoking, joint laxity, RTS time, knee kinematics, muscle strength or hop performance and graft rupture.ConclusionConspicuous risk factors for graft rupture were mainly sports and hereditary related. Few studies investigated function-related modifiable factors or included sports exposure data.

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Predictors of business return in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

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Predictors of business return in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

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