Dataset Information

Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990-2009.

ABSTRACT: Recent studies concerning the possible relationship between climate trends and the risks of violent conflict have yielded contradictory results, partly because of choices of conflict measures and modeling design. In this study, we examine climate-conflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for East Africa from 1990 to 2009. Unlike previous studies that relied exclusively on political and economic controls, we analyze the many geographical factors that have been shown to be important in understanding the distribution and causes of violence while also considering yearly and country fixed effects. For our main climate indicators at gridded 1° resolution (~100 km), wetter deviations from the precipitation norms decrease the risk of violence, whereas drier and normal periods show no effects. The relationship between temperature and conflict shows that much warmer than normal temperatures raise the risk of violence, whereas average and cooler temperatures have no effect. These precipitation and temperature effects are statistically significant but have modest influence in terms of predictive power in a model with political, economic, and physical geographic predictors. Large variations in the climate-conflict relationships are evident between the nine countries of the study region and across time periods.

SUBMITTER: O'Loughlin J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3494887 | biostudies-other | 2012 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990-2009.

O'Loughlin John J Witmer Frank D W FD Linke Andrew M AM Laing Arlene A Gettelman Andrew A Dudhia Jimy J

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20121022 45

Recent studies concerning the possible relationship between climate trends and the risks of violent conflict have yielded contradictory results, partly because of choices of conflict measures and modeling design. In this study, we examine climate-conflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for East ...[more]

PMID: 23090992

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Project description:IntroductionTension-type headache (TTH) is the most prevalent neurological disorder. As there is a gap in the literature regarding the disease burden attributable to TTH in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the aim of the present study was to report the epidemiological indicators of TTH in MENA, from 1990 to 2019, by sex, age and socio-demographic index (SDI).MethodsPublicly available data on the point prevalence, annual incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were retrieved from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study for the 21 countries and territories in MENA, between 1990 and 2019. The results were presented with numbers and age-standardised rates per 100000 population, along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsIn 2019, the age-standardised point prevalence and annual incidence rates for TTH in the MENA region were 24504.5 and 8680.1 per 100000, respectively, which represents a 2.0% and a 0.9% increase over 1990-2019, respectively. The age-standardised YLD rate of TTH in this region in 2019 was estimated to be 68.1 per 100000 population, which has increased 1.0% since 1990. Iran [29640.4] had the highest age-standardised point prevalence rate for TTH, while Turkey [21726.3] had the lowest. In 2019, the regional point prevalence of TTH was highest in the 35-39 and 70-74 age groups, for males and females, respectively. Furthermore, the number of prevalent cases was estimated to be highest in those aged 35-39 and 25-29 years, in both males and females, respectively. Moreover, the burden of TTH was not observed to have a clear association with SDI.ConclusionsWhile the prevalence of TTH in the MENA region increased from 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate did not change. In addition, the burden of TTH in MENA was higher than at the global level for both sexes and all age groups. Therefore, prevention of TTH would help alleviate the attributable burden imposed on the hundreds of millions of people suffering from TTH around the region.

Project description:Understanding major climate risks, adaptation strategies, and factors influencing the choice of those strategies is crucial to reduce farmers' vulnerability. Employing comprehensive data from 2822 farm households in Ethiopia and Kenya (East Africa; EA) and 1902 farm households in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal (South Asia; SA), this study investigates the main climate risks that farmers faced and the adaptation strategies they used. Among others, excessive rainfall and heightened crop pest/disease incidence are commonly observed climate-induced risks in all study areas, while cyclones and salinity are unique to Bangladesh. Drought is prevalent in Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Nepal. Farmers in those countries responded with strategies that include change in farming practices, sustainable land management, reduce consumption, sell assets, use savings and borrowings, seek alternative employment and assistance from government or NGO. In general, farmers faced several multiple climate risks simultaneously and they responded with multiple adaptation strategies. Therefore, this study used a multivariate probit (MVP) approach to examine the factors influencing the adoption of adaptation strategies. Unlike other studies, we also tested and corrected for possible endogeneity in model estimation. All the countries mentioned have low adaptive capacity to address climate change, which is further weakened by inadequate governance and inefficient institutions. We observed significant differences in the choice of adaptation strategies between male-headed households (MHHs) and female-headed households (FHHs), as well as across countries. Generally, MHHs are more likely to seek additional employment and change agricultural practices, while FHHs and households headed by older persons tend to reduce consumption and rely on savings and borrowings. Institutional support for adaptation is much less in EA compared to SA. Training on alternative farming practices, enhancing non-farm employment options, better institutional support, and social security for older farmers are crucial for climate change adaptation in both regions.

Dataset Information

Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990-2009.

Publications

Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990-2009.

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