Dataset Information

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. RESULTS: The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6-8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. CONCLUSIONS: External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection.

SUBMITTER: Hardstaff JL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3503836 | biostudies-other | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

Hardstaff Joanne L JL Bulling Mark T MT Marion Glenn G Hutchings Michael R MR White Piran C L PC

BMC veterinary research 20120627

<h4>Background</h4>The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental ...[more]

PMID: 22738118

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Project description:Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) poses a challenge to animal health and welfare worldwide. Presence of genetic variation in host resistance to Mycobacterium bovis infection makes the trait amenable to improvement with genetic selection. Genetic evaluations for resistance to infection in dairy cattle are currently available in the United Kingdom (UK), enabling genetic selection of more resistant animals. However, the extent to which genetic selection could contribute to bTB eradication is unknown. The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of genetic selection for bTB resistance on cattle-to-cattle disease transmission dynamics and prevalence by developing a stochastic genetic epidemiological model. The model was used to implement genetic selection in a simulated cattle population. The model considered various levels of selection intensity over 20 generations assuming genetic heterogeneity in host resistance to infection. Our model attempted to represent the dairy cattle population structure and current bTB control strategies in the UK, and was informed by genetic and epidemiological parameters inferred from data collected from UK bTB infected dairy herds. The risk of a bTB breakdown was modeled as the percentage of herds where initially infected cows (index cases) generated secondary cases by infecting herd-mates. The model predicted that this risk would be reduced by half after 4, 6, 9, and 15 generations for selection intensities corresponding to genetic selection of the 10, 25, 50, and 70% most resistant sires, respectively. In herds undergoing bTB breakdowns, genetic selection reduced the severity of breakdowns over generations by reducing both the percentage of secondary cases and the duration over which new secondary cases were detected. Selection of the 10, 25, 50, and 70% most resistant sires reduced the percentage of secondary cases to <1% in 4, 5, 7, and 11 generations, respectively. Similarly, the proportion of long breakdowns (breakdowns in which secondary cases were detected for more than 365 days) was reduced by half in 2, 2, 3, and 4 generations, respectively. Collectively, results suggest that genetic selection could be a viable tool that can complement existing management and surveillance methods to control and ultimately eradicate bTB.

Project description:BackgroundComputer-aided detection (CAD) can help identify people with active tuberculosis left undetected. However, few studies have compared the performance of commercially available CAD products for screening in high tuberculosis and high HIV settings, and there is poor understanding of threshold selection across products in different populations. We aimed to compare CAD products' performance, with further analyses on subgroup performance and threshold selection.MethodsWe evaluated 12 CAD products on a case-control sample of participants from a South African tuberculosis prevalence survey. Only those with microbiological test results were eligible. The primary outcome was comparing products' accuracy using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) against microbiological evidence. Threshold analyses were performed based on pre-defined criteria and across all thresholds. We conducted subgroup analyses including age, gender, HIV status, previous tuberculosis history, symptoms presence, and current smoking status.FindingsOf the 774 people included, 516 were bacteriologically negative and 258 were bacteriologically positive. Diverse accuracy was noted: Lunit and Nexus had AUCs near 0·9, followed by qXR, JF CXR-2, InferRead, Xvision, and ChestEye (AUCs 0·8-0·9). XrayAME, RADIFY, and TiSepX-TB had AUC under 0·8. Thresholds varied notably across these products and different versions of the same products. Certain products (Lunit, Nexus, JF CXR-2, and qXR) maintained high sensitivity (>90%) across a wide threshold range while reducing the number of individuals requiring confirmatory diagnostic testing. All products generally performed worst in older individuals, people with previous tuberculosis, and people with HIV. Variations in thresholds, sensitivity, and specificity existed across groups and settings.InterpretationSeveral previously unevaluated products performed similarly to those evaluated by WHO. Thresholds differed across products and demographic subgroups. The rapid emergence of products and versions necessitates a global strategy to validate new versions and software to support CAD product and threshold selections.FundingGovernment of Canada.

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Dataset Information

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

Publications

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

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