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A statistical model to assess the risk of communicable diseases associated with multiple exposures in healthcare settings.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The occurrence of communicable diseases (CD) depends on exposure to contagious persons. The effects of exposure to CD are delayed in time and contagious persons remain contagious for several days during which their contagiousness varies. Moreover when multiple exposures occur, it is difficult to know which exposure is associated with the CD. METHODS: A statistical model at the individual level is presented to estimate the risk of CD to patients, in healthcare settings, with multiple observed exposures to other patients and healthcare workers and unobserved exposures to unobserved or unobservable sources. The model explores the delayed effect of observed exposure, of source contagiousness and of unobserved exposure. It was applied to data on influenza-like illness (ILI) among patients in a university hospital during 3 influenza seasons: from 2004 to 2007. Over a total of 138,411 patients-days of follow-up, 64 incident ILI cases were observed among 21,519 patients at risk of ILI. RESULTS: The ILI risk per 10,000 patients-days associated with observed exposure was about 129.1 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 84.5, 182.9) and was associated at 72% with exposures to patients or healthcare workers 1 day earlier and at 41% with the 1st day of source contagiousness. The ILI risk associated with unobserved exposure was 0.8 (95% CrI: 0.3, 1.6) per 10,000 patients-days in non-epidemic situation in the community and 4.3 (95% CrI: 0.4, 11.0) in epidemic situation. CONCLUSIONS: The model could be an interesting epidemiological tool to further assess the relative contributions of observed and unobserved exposures to CD risk in healthcare settings.

SUBMITTER: Payet C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3599894 | biostudies-other | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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A statistical model to assess the risk of communicable diseases associated with multiple exposures in healthcare settings.

Payet Cécile C Voirin Nicolas N Vanhems Philippe P Ecochard René R

BMC medical research methodology 20130220

<h4>Background</h4>The occurrence of communicable diseases (CD) depends on exposure to contagious persons. The effects of exposure to CD are delayed in time and contagious persons remain contagious for several days during which their contagiousness varies. Moreover when multiple exposures occur, it is difficult to know which exposure is associated with the CD.<h4>Methods</h4>A statistical model at the individual level is presented to estimate the risk of CD to patients, in healthcare settings, w ...[more]

PMID: 23425160

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Project description:Adopting healthy lifestyles is greatly influenced by an individual's perceived risk of developing non-communicable diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to develop and validate a questionnaire that can assess an individual's perceived risk of developing four major NCDs. We used the exploratory sequential mixed methods design. The qualitative part developed a questionnaire by two rounds of Delphi expert panels. The quantitative part validated the questionnaire using both exploratory (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). We used separate samples for EFA (n = 150) and CFA (n = 210). The participants were aged between 25-60 years of both sexes with no known history of NCDs, and face-to-face interviews were conducted. First, we generated an 86-item questionnaire based on the health belief model. Two expert panels ensured the questionnaire's content validity. The experts removed the overlapped items and items that did not represent the specific construct and developed a 51-item questionnaire. Next, we validated the questionnaire. We conducted a parallel analysis to determine the number of factors to be extracted. EFA constituted a five-factor model with 22 high loading items, which extracted 54% of the variance. We run four CFA models (single factor, five-factor, bifactor, and hierarchical) and tested the hypothesized five-factor model. It was found that the 21-item questionnaire (removed one efficacy item due to low loading) was satisfied with good psychometric properties and fitted with observed data in the bifactor model (RMSEA = 0.051, CFI = 0.954, TLI = 0.938, SRMR = 0.054). Hence, an individual's perceived risk of getting NCDs was constituted with a general perceived risk construct and five specific constructs (perceived susceptibility, perceived barrier, perceived benefit, perceived self-efficacy, and perceived behavioral change intention). It can be measured using the developed questionnaire (NCD-PR5-21). Further research is warranted to assess the questionnaire's utility in a mismatch between risk perception and current risk; and individualized counseling for behavioral change communication.

Project description:BackgroundModifiable non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors are becoming increasingly common among adolescents, with clustering of these risk factors in individuals of particular concern. The aim of this study was to assess global status of clustering of common modifiable NCD risk factors among adolescents.MethodsWe used latest available data from nationally representative survey for 140 countries, namely the Global School-based Student Health Survey, the Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children and the longitudinal study of Australian Children. Weighted mean estimates of prevalence with corresponding 95% confidence intervals of nine NCD risk factors - physical inactivity, sedentary behaviour, insufficient fruits and vegetable consumption, carbonated soft drink consumption, fast food consumption, tobacco use, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity - were calculated by country, region and sex.FindingsOver 487,565 adolescents, aged 11-17 years, were included in this study. According to trend analysis, prevalence of four or more NCD risk factors increased gradually over time. Prevalence of four or more NCD risk factors was 14.8% in 2003-2007 and increased to 44% in 2013-2017, an approximately three-fold increase (44.0%). Similar trends were also observed for three and two risk factors. Large variation between countries in the prevalence of adolescents with four or more risk factors was found in all regions. The country level range was higher in the South-East Asia Region (minimum Sri Lanka = 8%, maximum Myanmar = 84%) than Western Pacific Region (minimum China = 3%, maximum Niue = 72%), European Region (minimum Sweden = 13.9%, maximum Ireland = 66.0%), African Region (minimum Senegal = 0.8%, maximum Uganda = 82.1%) and Eastern Mediterranean Region (minimum Libya = 0.2%, maximum Lebanon = 80.2%). Insufficient vegetable consumption, insufficient fruit consumption and physically inactivity were three of the four most prevalent risk factors in all regions.InterpretationOur results suggest a high prevalence of four or more NCD risk factors in adolescents globally, although variation was found between countries. Results from our study indicate that efforts to reduce adolescent NCD risk factors and the associated health burden need to be improved. These findings can assist policy makers to target the rollout of country- specific interventions.FundingNone.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:Identify, describe and appraise trials of interventions delivered by healthcare professionals to manage non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and communicable diseases that require long-term care or treatment (LT-CDs), excluding mental health and substance use disorders, in homeless adults. DESIGN:Systematic review of randomised controlled trials (RCTs), non-RCTs and controlled before-after studies. Interventions characterised using Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) taxonomy. Quality assessed using EPOC risk of bias criteria. DATA SOURCES:Database searches (MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Scopus, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA) and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), hand searching reference lists, citation searches, grey literature and contact with study authors. SETTING:Community. PARTICIPANTS:Adults (?18 years) fulfilling European Typology of Homelessness criteria. INTERVENTION:Delivered by healthcare professionals managing NCD and LT-CDs. OUTCOMES:Primary outcome: unscheduled healthcare utilisation. SECONDARY OUTCOMES:mortality, biological markers of disease control, adherence to treatment, engagement in care, patient satisfaction, knowledge, self-efficacy, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS:11 studies were included (8 RCTs, 2 quasi-experimental and 1 feasibility) involving 9-520 participants (67%-94%?male, median age 37-49 years). Ten from USA and one from UK. Studies included various NCDs (n=3); or focused on latent tuberculosis (n=4); HIV (n=2); hepatitis C (n=1) or type 2 diabetes (n=1). All interventions were complex with multiple components. Four described theories underpinning intervention. Three assessed unscheduled healthcare utilisation: none showed consistent reduction in hospitalisation or emergency department attendance. Six assessed adherence to specific treatments, of which four showed improved adherence to latent tuberculosis therapy. Three concerned education case management, all of which improved disease-specific knowledge. No improvements in biological markers of disease (two studies) and none assessed mortality. CONCLUSIONS:Evidence for management of NCD and LT-CDs in homeless adults is sparse. Educational case-management interventions may improve knowledge and medication adherence. Large trials of theory-based interventions are needed, assessing healthcare utilisation and outcomes as well as assessment of biological outcomes and cost-effectiveness.

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A statistical model to assess the risk of communicable diseases associated with multiple exposures in healthcare settings.

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A statistical model to assess the risk of communicable diseases associated with multiple exposures in healthcare settings.

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