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Spatial extent of an outbreak in animal epidemics.

ABSTRACT: Characterizing the spatial extent of epidemics at the outbreak stage is key to controlling the evolution of the disease. At the outbreak, the number of infected individuals is typically small, and therefore, fluctuations around their average are important: then, it is commonly assumed that the susceptible-infected-recovered mechanism can be described by a stochastic birth-death process of Galton-Watson type. The displacements of the infected individuals can be modeled by resorting to brownian motion, which is applicable when long-range movements and complex network interactions can be safely neglected, like in the case of animal epidemics. In this context, the spatial extent of an epidemic can be assessed by computing the convex hull enclosing the infected individuals at a given time. We derive the exact evolution equations for the mean perimeter and the mean area of the convex hull, and we compare them with Monte Carlo simulations.

SUBMITTER: Dumonteil E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3600442 | biostudies-other | 2013 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Spatial extent of an outbreak in animal epidemics.

Dumonteil Eric E Majumdar Satya N SN Rosso Alberto A Zoia Andrea A

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20130225 11

Characterizing the spatial extent of epidemics at the outbreak stage is key to controlling the evolution of the disease. At the outbreak, the number of infected individuals is typically small, and therefore, fluctuations around their average are important: then, it is commonly assumed that the susceptible-infected-recovered mechanism can be described by a stochastic birth-death process of Galton-Watson type. The displacements of the infected individuals can be modeled by resorting to brownian mo ...[more]

PMID: 23440212

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