Dataset Information

New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury.

ABSTRACT: Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.

SUBMITTER: Smith LC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3612651 | biostudies-other | 2013 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury.

Smith Laurence C LC Stephenson Scott R SR

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20130304 13

Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different c ...[more]

PMID: 23487747

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Project description:The sea urchins Strongylocentotus pallidus and S. droebachiensis first invaded the Atlantic Ocean from the Pacific following the opening of the Bering seaway in the late Miocene. While trans-Arctic dispersal during the Pleistocene is thought to have maintained species' integrity, a recent genomic analysis identified a reproductively isolated cryptic species within S. droebachiensis. Based on previous studies, the distribution of one of these lineages (S. droebachiensis W) includes the shallow water habitats of the northwest Atlantic and Pacific, while the other (S. droebachiensis E) is found throughout the shallow habitat in the northeast but is mostly restricted to deep habitats (>65 m) in the northwest Atlantic. However, since genetic variation within S. droebachiensis has been largely unstudied in the north Pacific and Arctic oceans, the biogeography of the cryptic species is not well known, and it is difficult to identify the mechanisms driving population subdivision and speciation. Here we use population genetic analyses to characterize the distribution of each species, and to test hypotheses about the role of vicariance in the evolution of systematic and genomic divergence within the genus. We collected individuals of all three Strongylocentrotus species (n = 365) from 10 previously unsampled locations in the northeast Pacific and north Atlantic (Labrador Sea and Norway), and generated mtDNA sequence data for a 418 bp fragment of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI). To assess the biogeography of all three species, we combined our alignment with five previously published data sets (total n = 789) and used statistical parsimony and maximum likelihood to identify species and characterize their distribution within and among oceans. Patterns of haplotype sharing, pairwise F ST , and hierarchical analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) identified trans-Arctic dispersal in S. pallidus and S. droebachiensis W, but other than 5 previously reported singletons we failed to detect additional mtDNA haplotypes of S. droebachiensis E in the north Pacific. Within the Atlantic, patterns of habitat segregation suggests that temperature may play a role in limiting the distribution of S. droebachiensis E, particularly throughout the warmer coastal waters along the coast of Nova Scotia. Our results are consistent with the cycles of trans-Arctic dispersal and vicariance in S. pallidus and S. droebachiensis W, but we suggest that the evolution of Atlantic populations of S. droebachiensis E has been driven by persistent trans-Arctic vicariance that may date to the initial invasion in the late Pliocene.

Dataset Information

New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury.

Publications

New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury.

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