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Development and validation of a prognostic model in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with sunitinib: a European collaboration.

ABSTRACT: Accurate prediction of outcome for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) patients receiving targeted therapy is essential. Most of the available models have been developed in patients treated with cytokines, while most of them are fairly complex, including at least five factors. We developed and externally validated a simple model for overall survival (OS) in mRCC. We also studied the recently validated International Database Consortium (IDC) model in our data sets.The development cohort included 170 mRCC patients treated with sunitinib. The final prognostic model was selected by uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Risk groups were defined by the number of risk factors and by the 25th and 75th percentiles of the model's prognostic index distribution. The model was validated using an independent data set of 266 mRCC patients (validation cohort) treated with the same agent.Eastern Co-operative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS), time from diagnosis of RCC and number of metastatic sites were included in the final model. Median OS of patients with 1, 2 and 3 risk factors were: 24.7, 12.8 and 5.9 months, respectively, whereas median OS was not reached for patients with 0 risk factors. Concordance (C) index for internal validation was 0.712, whereas C-index for external validation was 0.634, due to differences in survival especially in poor-risk populations between the two cohorts. Predictive performance of the model was improved after recalibration. Application of the mRCC International Database Consortium (IDC) model resulted in a C-index of 0.574 in the development and 0.576 in the validation cohorts (lower than those recently reported for this model). Predictive ability was also improved after recalibration in this analysis. Risk stratification according to IDC model showed more similar outcomes across the development and validation cohorts compared with our model.Our model provides a simple prognostic tool in mRCC patients treated with a targeted agent. It had similar performance with the IDC model, which, however, produced more consistent survival results across the development and validation cohorts. The predictive ability of both models was lower than that suggested by internal validation (our model) or recent published data (IDC model), due to differences between observed and predicted survival among intermediate and poor-risk patients. Our results highlight the importance of external validation and the need for further refinement of existing prognostic models.

SUBMITTER: Bamias A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3721408 | biostudies-other | 2013 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:PurposeWe identified sunitinib alternative schedules that maintained dose intensity while decreasing adverse events in patients with metastatic renal cell cancer. We also determined the impact of alternative schedules on clinical outcomes.Materials and methodsWe retrospectively reviewed the records of patients 18 years old or older with clear cell metastatic renal cell cancer who received first line sunitinib between January 26, 2006 and March 1, 2011 at our major comprehensive cancer center. A subset of patients was switched at the first intolerable adverse event from the traditional schedule of 28 days on and 14 days off to a schedule of 14 days on and 7 days off or other alternative schedules. A control group underwent standard dose reduction. We estimated progression-free and overall survival by the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors of progression-free and overall survival were analyzed using Cox regression.ResultsA total of 187 patients were included in analysis, of whom 87% were on the traditional schedule at baseline. During treatment 53% of patients continued on the traditional schedule and 47% began or were transitioned to alternative schedules. Baseline characteristics were similar. Adverse events prompting schedule modification included fatigue in 64% of cases, hand-foot syndrome in 38% and diarrhea in 32%. Median time to alternative schedules was 5.6 months. Median overall survival was 17.7 months (95% CI 10.8-22.2) on the traditional schedule compared to 33.0 months (95% CI 29.3-not estimable) on alternative schedules (p <0.0001). On multivariable analysis poor Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, increased lactate dehydrogenase, decreased albumin, unfavorable Heng criteria and the traditional schedule were associated with decreased overall survival (p <0.05).ConclusionsSunitinib administered on alternative schedules may mitigate adverse events while achieving outcomes comparable to those of the traditional schedule in patients with metastatic renal cell cancer. Prospective investigations of alternate dosing schemas are warranted.

Project description:The purpose of the study was to identify a comprehensive prognostic system of pretreatment clinical parameters in 425 patients (pts) with metastatic renal-cell carcinoma treated with different subcutaneous (s.c.) recombinant cytokine-based home therapies in consecutive trials. Treatment consisted of (A) s.c. interferon-alpha 2a (INF-alpha), s.c. interleukin-2 (IL-2) (n=102 pts), (B) s.c. IFN-alpha 2a, s.c. IL-2, and i.v. 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) (n=235 pts) or (C) s.c. IFN-alpha 2a, s.c. IL-2, and i.v. 5-FU combined with p.o. 13-cis-retinoic acid (13cRA) (n=88 pts). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, log-rank statistics, and Cox regression analysis were employed to identify risk factors and to create a multiple risk factor model. The following pretreatment risk factors were identified by univariate analysis: (1) three and more metastatic sites, (2) presence of liver, lymph node or bone metastases, (3) neutrophil count > or = 6500 cells microl(-1), (4) serum lactate dehydrogenase level (LDH) > or = 220 U l(-1), and (5) serum C-reactive protein level (CRP) > or = 11 mg l(-1). Cox regression analysis with forward stepwise variable selection identified neutrophil count as the major prognostic factor (hazard ratio=1.9, P<0.001), while serum levels of LDH and CRP, time between diagnosis of tumour and onset of metastatic disease, number of metastatic sites, and bone metastases were significant but somewhat less important prognostic variables within the multiple risk factor model (hazard ratio < or = 1.5). Patients were assigned to one of the three risk groups according to cumulative risk defined as the sum of simplified risk s.c.ores for six pretreatment variables. Low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients achieved a median overall survival of 32+ months (95% CI 24, 43; 5-year survival of 27%), 18+ months (95% CI 15, 20; 5-year survival of 11%), and 8+ months (95% CI 6, 10; 5-year survival of 5%), respectively. These prognostic categories are helpful both in individual patient care and in the assessment of patients entering prospective clinical trials.

Project description:BackgroundMetastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) patients receiving first-line sunitinib typically survive >2 yr, with chronic treatment sometimes extending to ≥6 yr.ObjectiveTo analyze long-term safety with sunitinib in mRCC patients.Design, setting, and participantsData were pooled from 5739 patients in nine trials, comprising seven phase II studies, a phase III study, and an expanded-access trial in various treatment settings (e.g., cytokine refractory or treatment-naïve).Outcome measurements and statistical analysisInterval and cumulative time-period analyses evaluated the incidence of treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) for up to 6 yr, in the overall population and in those with long-term (≥2 yr) sunitinib treatment.Results and limitationsAmong long-term patients (n=807), most TRAEs occurred initially in the first year and then decreased in frequency; TRAEs following this pattern included decreased appetite, diarrhea, dysgeusia, dyspepsia, fatigue, hypertension, mucosal inflammation, nausea, and stomatitis. However, hypothyroidism increased by interval analysis from 6% at 0-<6 mo to 42% at 5-<6 yr and by cumulative analysis from 14% at 0-<1 yr to 36% over 6 yr. Grade 3/4 TRAEs in long-term patients peaked during the first year and then steadily decreased. The overall population displayed only minor differences from long-term patients, with no clinically significant differences between grade ≥3 TRAE profiles (<5% difference in incidence rates at all intervals). Limitations included retrospective design, assessment variability, lack of pharmacokinetic data, and absence of baseline characteristics for long-term patients.ConclusionsProlonged sunitinib was not associated with new types or increased severity of TRAEs. Except hypothyroidism, toxicity was not cumulative.Patient summaryMore than 800 mRCC patients received sunitinib for between 2 and 6 yr without experiencing new or more severe treatment-related toxicity. Clinicians may be able to prescribe chronic sunitinib treatment for as long as patients continue to derive clinical benefit, without untoward additional risk.

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Development and validation of a prognostic model in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with sunitinib: a European collaboration.

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