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Using common random numbers in health care cost-effectiveness simulation modeling.

ABSTRACT: To identify the problem of separating statistical noise from treatment effects in health outcomes modeling and analysis. To demonstrate the implementation of one technique, common random numbers (CRNs), and to illustrate the value of CRNs to assess costs and outcomes under uncertainty.A microsimulation model was designed to evaluate osteoporosis treatment, estimating cost and utility measures for patient cohorts at high risk of osteoporosis-related fractures. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated using a full implementation of CRNs, a partial implementation of CRNs, and no CRNs. A modification to traditional probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was used to determine how variance reduction can impact a decision maker's view of treatment efficacy and costs.The full use of CRNs provided a 93.6 percent reduction in variance compared to simulations not using the technique. The use of partial CRNs provided a 5.6 percent reduction. The PSA results using full CRNs demonstrated a substantially tighter range of cost-benefit outcomes for teriparatide usage than the cost-benefits generated without the technique.CRNs provide substantial variance reduction for cost-effectiveness studies. By reducing variability not associated with the treatment being evaluated, CRNs provide a better understanding of treatment effects and risks.

SUBMITTER: Murphy DR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3725537 | biostudies-other | 2013 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Using common random numbers in health care cost-effectiveness simulation modeling.

Murphy Daniel R DR Klein Robert W RW Smolen Lee J LJ Klein Timothy M TM Roberts Stephen D SD

Health services research 20130213 4

<h4>Objectives</h4>To identify the problem of separating statistical noise from treatment effects in health outcomes modeling and analysis. To demonstrate the implementation of one technique, common random numbers (CRNs), and to illustrate the value of CRNs to assess costs and outcomes under uncertainty.<h4>Methods</h4>A microsimulation model was designed to evaluate osteoporosis treatment, estimating cost and utility measures for patient cohorts at high risk of osteoporosis-related fractures. I ...[more]

PMID: 23402573

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Project description:BackgroundA wide range of possible malaria vaccines is being considered and there is a need to identify which vaccines should be prioritized for clinical development. An important element of the information needed for this prioritization is a prediction of the cost-effectiveness of potential vaccines in the transmission settings in which they are likely to be deployed. This analysis needs to consider a range of delivery modalities to ensure that clinical development plans can be aligned with the most appropriate deployment strategies.MethodsThe simulations are based on a previously published individual-based stochastic model for the natural history and epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Three different vaccine types: pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEV), blood stage vaccines (BSV), mosquito-stage transmission-blocking vaccines (MSTBV), and combinations of these, are considered each delivered via a range of delivery modalities (Expanded Programme of Immunization - EPI-, EPI with booster, and mass vaccination combined with EPI). The cost-effectiveness ratios presented are calculated for four health outcomes, for assumed vaccine prices of US$ 2 or US$ 10 per dose, projected over a 10-year period.ResultsThe simulations suggest that PEV will be more cost-effective in low transmission settings, while BSV at higher transmission settings. Combinations of BSV and PEV are more efficient than PEV, especially in moderate to high transmission settings, while compared to BSV they are more cost-effective in moderate to low transmission settings. Combinations of MSTBV and PEV or PEV and BSV improve the effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness compared to PEV and BSV alone only when applied with EPI and mass vaccinations. Adding booster doses to the EPI is unlikely to be a cost-effective alternative to delivering vaccines via the EPI for any vaccine, while mass vaccination improves effectiveness, especially in low transmission settings, and is often a more efficient alternative to the EPI. However, the costs of increasing the coverage of mass vaccination over 50% often exceed the benefits.ConclusionThe simulations indicate malaria vaccines might be efficient malaria control interventions, and that both transmission setting and vaccine delivery modality are important to their cost-effectiveness. Alternative vaccine delivery modalities to the EPI may be more efficient than the EPI. Mass vaccination is predicted to provide substantial health benefits at low additional costs, although achieving high coverage rates can lead to substantial incremental costs.

Project description:BACKGROUND: This study aimed at providing information for priority setting in the health care sector of Zimbabwe as well as assessing the efficiency of resource use. A general approach proposed by the World Bank involving the estimation of the burden of disease measured in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and calculation of cost-effectiveness ratios for a large number of health interventions was followed. METHODS: Costs per DALY for a total of 65 health interventions were estimated. Costing data were collected through visits to health centres, hospitals and vertical programmes where a combination of step-down and micro-costing was applied. Effectiveness of health interventions was estimated based on published information on the efficacy adjusted for factors such as coverage and compliance. RESULTS: Very cost-effective interventions were available for the major health problems. Using estimates of the burden of disease, the present paper developed packages of health interventions using the estimated cost-effectiveness ratios. These packages could avert a quarter of the burden of disease at total costs corresponding to one tenth of the public health budget in the financial year 1997/98. In general, the analyses suggested that there was substantial potential for improving the efficiency of resource use in the public health care sector. DISCUSSION: The proposed World Bank approach applied to Zimbabwe was extremely data demanding and required extensive data collection in the field and substantial human resources. The most important limitation of the study was the scarcity of evidence on effectiveness of health interventions so that a range of important health interventions could not be included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. This and other limitations could in principle be overcome if more research resources were available. CONCLUSION: The present study showed that it was feasible to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses for a large number of health interventions in a developing country like Zimbabwe using a consistent methodology.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Obesity is an important risk factor for many chronic diseases. Mobile health interventions such as smartphone apps can potentially provide a convenient low-cost addition to other obesity reduction strategies. OBJECTIVE:This study aimed to estimate the impacts on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and health system costs over the remainder of the life span of the New Zealand population (N=4.4 million) for a smartphone app promotion intervention in 1 calendar year (2011) using currently available apps for weight loss. METHODS:The intervention was a national mass media promotion of selected smartphone apps for weight loss compared with no dedicated promotion. A multistate life table model including 14 body mass index-related diseases was used to estimate QALYs gained and health systems costs. A lifetime horizon, 3% discount rate, and health system perspective were used. The proportion of the target population receiving the intervention (1.36%) was calculated using the best evidence for the proportion who have access to smartphones, are likely to see the mass media campaign promoting the app, are likely to download a weight loss app, and are likely to continue using this app. RESULTS:In the base-case model, the smartphone app promotion intervention generated 29 QALYs (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 14-52) and cost the health system US $1.6 million (95% UI: 1.1-2.0 million) with the standard download rate. Under plausible assumptions, QALYs increased to 59 (95% UI: 27-107) and costs decreased to US $1.2 million (95% UI: 0.5-1.8) when standard download rates were doubled. Costs per QALY gained were US $53,600 for the standard download rate and US $20,100 when download rates were doubled. On the basis of a threshold of US $30,000 per QALY, this intervention was cost-effective for Māori when the standard download rates were increased by 50% and also for the total population when download rates were doubled. CONCLUSIONS:In this modeling study, the mass media promotion of a smartphone app for weight loss produced relatively small health gains on a population level and was of borderline cost-effectiveness for the total population. Nevertheless, the scope for this type of intervention may expand with increasing smartphone use, more easy-to-use and effective apps becoming available, and with recommendations to use such apps being integrated into dietary counseling by health workers.

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Using common random numbers in health care cost-effectiveness simulation modeling.

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Using common random numbers in health care cost-effectiveness simulation modeling.

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