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Can intensity of long-term follow-up for survivors of childhood and teenage cancer be determined by therapy-based risk stratification?

ABSTRACT: To determine the feasibility of therapy-based, risk-stratified follow-up guidelines for childhood and teenage cancer survivors by evaluating adverse health outcomes in a survivor cohort retrospectively assigned a risk category.Retrospective cohort study.Tertiary level, single centre, paediatric cancer unit in South East Scotland.All children and teenagers diagnosed with cancer (<19 years) between 1 January 1971 and 31 July 2004, who were alive more than 5 years from diagnosis formed the study cohort. Each survivor was retrospectively assigned a level of follow-up, based on their predicted risk of developing treatment-related late effects (LEs; levels 1, 2 and 3 for low, medium and high risk, respectively). Adverse health outcomes were determined from review of medical records and postal questionnaires. LEs were graded using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Event, V.3.607 5-year survivors were identified. Risk stratification identified 86 (14.2%), 271 (44.6%) and 250 (41.2%) as levels 1, 2 and 3 survivors, respectively. The prevalence of LEs for level 1 survivors was 11.6% with only one patient with grade 3 or above toxicity. 35.8% of level 2 survivors had an LE, of whom 9.3%, 58.8%, 18.5%, 10.3% and 3% had grades 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 toxicity, respectively. 65.2% of level 3 survivors had LE, of whom 5.5% (n=9), 34.4% (n=56), 36.2% (n=59), 22.1% (n=36) and 1.8% (n=3) had grades 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 toxicity, respectively.Therapy-based risk stratification of survivors can predict which patients are at significant risk of developing moderate-to-severe LEs and require high-intensity long-term follow-up. Our findings will need confirmation in a prospective cohort study that has the power to adjust for all potentially confounding variables.

SUBMITTER: Edgar AB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3733304 | biostudies-other | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Can intensity of long-term follow-up for survivors of childhood and teenage cancer be determined by therapy-based risk stratification?

Edgar A B AB Duffin K K Borthwick S S Marciniak-Stepak P P Wallace W H WH

BMJ open 20130802 8

<h4>Objective</h4>To determine the feasibility of therapy-based, risk-stratified follow-up guidelines for childhood and teenage cancer survivors by evaluating adverse health outcomes in a survivor cohort retrospectively assigned a risk category.<h4>Design</h4>Retrospective cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Tertiary level, single centre, paediatric cancer unit in South East Scotland.<h4>Participants</h4>All children and teenagers diagnosed with cancer (<19 years) between 1 January 1971 and 31 July 200 ...[more]

PMID: 23913770

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Project description:BackgroundLong-term childhood cancer survivors (CCS) are at increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events; however, there is a paucity of risk-stratification tools to identify those at higher-than-normal risk.Subjects, materials, and methodsThis was a population-based study using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (1973-2013). Long-term CCS (age at diagnosis ≤19 years, survival ≥5 years) were followed up over a median time period of 12.3 (5-40.9) years. Independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality (CVM) were combined into a risk score, which was developed in a derivation set (n = 22,374), and validated in separate patient registries (n = 6,437).ResultsIn the derivation registries, older age at diagnosis (≥10 years vs. reference group of 1-5 years), male sex, non-white race, a history of lymphoma, and a history of radiation were independently associated with an increased risk of CVM among long-term CCS (p < .05). A risk score derived from this model (Childhood and Adolescence Cancer Survivor CardioVascular score [CHACS-CV], range: 0-8) showed good discrimination for CVM (Harrell's C-index [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 0.73 [0.68-0.78], p < .001) and identified a high-risk group (CHACS-CV ≥6), with cumulative CVM incidence over 30 years of 6.0% (95% CI: 4.3%-8.1%) versus 2.6% (95% CI: 1.8%-3.7%), and 0.7% (95% CI: 0.5%-1.0%) in the mid- (CHACS-CV = 4-5) and low-risk groups (CHACS-CV ≤3), respectively (plog-rank < .001). In the validation set, the respective cumulative incidence rates were 4.7%, 3.1%, and 0.8% (plog-rank < .001).ConclusionWe propose a simple risk score that can be applied in everyday clinical practice to identify long-term CCS at increased cardiovascular risk, who may benefit from early cardiovascular screening, and risk-reduction strategies.Implications for practiceChildhood cancer survivors (CCS) are known to be at increased cardiovascular risk. Currently available prognostic tools focus on treatment-related adverse events and late development of congestive heart failure, but there is no prognostic model to date to estimate the risk of cardiovascular mortality among long-term CCS. A simple clinical tool is proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification of long-term CCS based on easily obtainable information from their medical history. This scoring system may be used as a first-line screening tool to assist health care providers in identifying those who may benefit from closer follow-up and enable timely deployment of preventive strategies.

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Can intensity of long-term follow-up for survivors of childhood and teenage cancer be determined by therapy-based risk stratification?

Publications

Can intensity of long-term follow-up for survivors of childhood and teenage cancer be determined by therapy-based risk stratification?

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