Dataset Information

Agent-based Bayesian approach to monitoring the progress of invasive species eradication programs.

ABSTRACT: Eradication of an invasive species can provide significant environmental, economic, and social benefits, but eradication programs often fail. Constant and careful monitoring improves the chance of success, but an invasion may seem to be in decline even when it is expanding in abundance or spatial extent. Determining whether an invasion is in decline is a challenging inference problem for two reasons. First, it is typically infeasible to regularly survey the entire infested region owing to high cost. Second, surveillance methods are imperfect and fail to detect some individuals. These two factors also make it difficult to determine why an eradication program is failing. Agent-based methods enable inferences to be made about the locations of undiscovered individuals over time to identify trends in invader abundance and spatial extent. We develop an agent-based Bayesian method and apply it to Australia's largest eradication program: the campaign to eradicate the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) from Brisbane. The invasion was deemed to be almost eradicated in 2004 but our analyses indicate that its geographic range continued to expand despite a sharp decline in number of nests. We also show that eradication would probably have been achieved with a relatively small increase in the area searched and treated. Our results demonstrate the importance of inferring temporal and spatial trends in ongoing invasions. The method can handle incomplete observations and takes into account the effects of human intervention. It has the potential to transform eradication practices.

SUBMITTER: Keith JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3746841 | biostudies-other | 2013 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Publications

Agent-based Bayesian approach to monitoring the progress of invasive species eradication programs.

Keith Jonathan M JM Spring Daniel D

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20130722 33

Eradication of an invasive species can provide significant environmental, economic, and social benefits, but eradication programs often fail. Constant and careful monitoring improves the chance of success, but an invasion may seem to be in decline even when it is expanding in abundance or spatial extent. Determining whether an invasion is in decline is a challenging inference problem for two reasons. First, it is typically infeasible to regularly survey the entire infested region owing to high c ...[more]

PMID: 23878210

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Project description:Biological invasions are not only a major threat to biodiversity, they also have major impacts on local economies and agricultural production systems. Once established, the connection of local populations into metapopulation networks facilitates dispersal at landscape scales, generating spatial dynamics that can impact the outcome of pest-management actions. Much planning goes into landscape-scale invasive species management. However, effective management requires knowledge on the interplay between metapopulation network topology and management actions. We address this knowledge gap using simulation models to explore the effectiveness of two common management strategies, applied across different extents and according to different rules for selecting target localities in metapopulations with different network topologies. These management actions are: (i) general population reduction, and (ii) reduction of an obligate resource. The reduction of an obligate resource was generally more efficient than population reduction for depleting populations at landscape scales. However, the way in which local populations are selected for management is important when the topology of the metapopulation is heterogeneous in terms of the distribution of connections among local populations. We tested these broad findings using real-world scenarios of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) infesting agricultural landscapes in Western Australia. Although management strategies targeting central populations were more effective in simulated heterogeneous metapopulation structures, no difference was observed in real-world metapopulation structures that are highly homogeneous. In large metapopulations with high proximity and connectivity of neighbouring populations, different spatial management strategies yield similar outcomes. Directly considering spatial attributes in pest-management actions will be most important for metapopulation networks with heterogeneously distributed links. Our modelling framework provides a simple approach for identifying the best possible management strategy for invasive species based on metapopulation structure and control capacity. This information can be used by managers trying to devise efficient landscape-oriented management strategies for invasive species and can also generate insights for conservation purposes.

Dataset Information

Agent-based Bayesian approach to monitoring the progress of invasive species eradication programs.

Publications

Agent-based Bayesian approach to monitoring the progress of invasive species eradication programs.

Similar Datasets

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