Fracture risk prediction: importance of age, BMD and spine fracture status.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Krege JH
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3789218 | biostudies-other | 2013
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Type 2 diabetes is a risk factor for fracture independent of FRAX (fracture risk assessment) probability. We directly compared four proposed methods to improve the performance of FRAX for type 2 diabetes by: (1) including the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) input to FRAX; (2) making a trabecular bone score (TBS) adjustment to FRAX; (3) reducing the femoral neck T-score input to FRAX by 0.5 SD; and (4) increasing the age input to FRAX by 10 years. We examined major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) and hip fractures (HFs) over a mean of 8.3 years observation among 44,543 women and men 40 years of age or older (4136 with diabetes) with baseline lumbar spine and hip DXA from 1999 through 2016. Controlled for unadjusted FRAX probability, diabetes was associated with an increased risk for MOFs and HFs. All four FRAX adjustments attenuated the effect of diabetes, but a residual effect of diabetes was seen on MOF risk after TBS adjustment, and on HF risk after the RA and TBS adjustments. Among those with diabetes, unadjusted FRAX risk underestimated MOF (observed/predicted ratio 1.15; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.28), but this was no longer significant after applying the diabetes adjustments. HF risk was more severely underestimated (observed/predicted ratio 1.85; 95% CI, 1.51 to 2.20) and was only partially corrected with the diabetes adjustments (still significant for the RA and TBS adjustments). Among those with diabetes, there was moderate reclassification based upon a fixed MOF cut-off of 20% (4.1% to 7.1%) or fixed HF cut-off of 3% (5.7% to 16.5%). Net reclassification improvement increased for MOF with each of the diabetes adjustments (range 3.9% to 5.6% in the diabetes subgroup). In conclusion, each of the proposed methods for addressing limitations in the ability of FRAX to assess fracture risk in individuals with diabetes was found to improve performance, though no single method was optimal in all settings. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
| S-EPMC6193547 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Serum proteomics analysis may lead to the discovery of novel osteoporosis biomarkers. The Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study comprises men ?65 years old in the US who have had repeated BMD measures and have been followed for incident fracture. High-throughput quantitative proteomic analysis was performed on baseline fasting serum samples from non-Hispanic white men using a multidimensional approach coupling liquid chromatography, ion-mobility separation, and mass spectrometry (LC-IMS-MS). We followed the participants for a mean of 4.6 years for changes in femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) and for incident hip fracture. Change in BMD was determined from mixed effects regression models taking age and weight into account. Participants were categorized into three groups: BMD maintenance (no decline; estimated change ?0?g/cm2 , n?=?453); expected loss (estimated change 0 to 1 SD below the estimated mean change, -0.034?g/cm2 for femoral neck, n?=?1184); and accelerated loss (estimated change ?1 SD below mean change, n?=?237). Differential abundance values of 3946 peptides were summarized by meta-analysis to determine differential abundance of each of 339 corresponding proteins for accelerated BMD loss versus maintenance. Using this meta-analytic standardized fold change at cutoffs of ?1.1 or ?0.9 (p?<?0.10), 20 proteins were associated with accelerated BMD loss. Associations of those 20 proteins with incident hip fracture were tested using Cox proportional hazards models with age and BMI adjustment in 2473 men. Five proteins were associated with incident hip fracture (HR between 1.29 and 1.41 per SD increase in estimated protein abundance). Some proteins have been previously associated with fracture risk (eg, CD14 and SHBG), whereas others have roles in cellular senescence and aging (B2MG and TIMP1) and complement activation and innate immunity (CO7, CO9, CFAD). These findings may inform development of biomarkers for future research in bone biology and fracture prediction. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
| S-EPMC5489383 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In women of ages 75-80 years, a low one leg standing time (OLST) was associated with an increased risk of incident fractures, independently of bone mineral density and clinical risk factors. OLST contributed substantially to fracture probability, indicating that the test should be considered when evaluating fracture risk in older women.IntroductionPhysical function and risk of falls are important risk factors for fracture. A few previous studies have suggested that a one leg standing time (OLST) less than 10 s predicts fracture risk, but the impact of OLST, in addition to known clinical risk factors, for fracture probability is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the independent contribution of OLST to fracture probability in older women.MethodsThe Sahlgrenska University Hospital Prospective Evaluation of Risk of Bone Fractures (SUPERB) is a prospective population-based study of 3028 women 75-80 years old, recruited from the greater Gothenburg area in Sweden. At baseline, information on risk factors was collected using questionnaires, bone mineral density was measured with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and OLST was performed.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 3.6 years (IQR 1.5 years), X-ray-verified incident fractures were identified using health records. OLST was available in 2405 women. OLST less than 10 s was associated with an increased risk for incident hip fracture (Hazard Ratio (HR) 3.02, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) [1.49-6.10]), major osteoporotic fracture (HR 95% CI 1.76 [1.34-1.46]), and nonvertebral fracture (HR 95% CI 1.61 [1.26-2.05]) in Cox regression analyses adjusted for age, height, and weight. Depending on BMD, the 4-year fracture probability increased by a factor of 1.3 to 1.5 in a 75-year-old woman with a low OLST (<10 s).ConclusionA low OLST has a substantial impact on fracture probability and should be considered when evaluating fracture risk in older women.
| S-EPMC8758616 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) without bone mineral density (BMD) and risk for major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) in type 1 diabetes.MethodsSubjects with type 1 diabetes and without diabetes from the 'Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes' study were included. Risk for MOF was calculated using FRAX-based clinical risk factors and without BMD at visit 3 (2006-2008). Incident fractures were defined as fractures that occurred between visit 3 and visit 4 (2013-2017). Survival models were used to study the predictability of new MOF by diabetes status.Results346 type 1 diabetes (mean age 43.3 ± 9, BMI 26.4 ± 5, diabetes duration 29.4 ± 8.6 years, A1c 7.8 ± 1.1) and 411 controls (mean age 46.9 ± 9 years, BMI 26.3 ± 5 kg/m2, A1c 5.5 ± 0.4) were analyzed in this study. In unadjusted survival analysis, the FRAX score without BMD was significantly associated with MOF (HR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04-1.13, p < 0.0001), and remained significantly associated after adjustment for age and sex (HR 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04-1.15, p = 0.0007) and type 1 diabetes (HR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04-1.12, p = 0.0002). In the fully adjusted model (adjusted for age, sex and type 1 diabetes), the FRAX score without BMD was the only variable significantly associated with risk of MOF (HR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02-1.14, p = 0.006).ConclusionClinical use of FRAX without BMD is useful tool in identifying adults with type 1 diabetes at higher risk for MOF risk and may help clinicians to guide therapeutic decision-making in this high fracture risk population.
| S-EPMC7770010 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD), age plus femoral neck BMD T score, and three externally generated fracture risk tools had similar accuracy to identify older men who developed osteoporotic fractures. Risk tools with femoral neck BMD performed better than those without BMD. The externally developed risk tools were poorly calibrated. INTRODUCTION:We compared the performance of fracture risk assessment tools in older men, accounting for competing risks including mortality. METHODS:A comparative ROC curve analysis assessed the ability of the QFracture, FRAX® and Garvan fracture risk tools, and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) T score with or without age to identify incident fracture in community-dwelling men aged 65 years or older (N = 4994) without hip or clinical vertebral fracture or antifracture treatment at baseline. RESULTS:Among risk tools calculated with BMD, the discriminative ability to identify men with incident hip fracture was similar for FRAX (AUC 0.77, 95% CI 0.73, 0.81), the Garvan tool (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.74, 0.82), age plus femoral neck BMD T score (AUC 0.79, 95% CI 0.75, 0.83), and femoral neck BMD T score alone (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.72, 0.81). Among risk tools calculated without BMD, the discriminative ability to identify hip fracture was similar for QFracture (AUC 0.69, 95% CI 0.66, 0.73), FRAX (AUC 0.70, 95% CI 0.66, 0.73), and the Garvan tool (AUC 0.71, 95% CI 0.67, 0.74). Correlated ROC curve analyses revealed better diagnostic accuracy for risk scores calculated with BMD compared with QFracture (P < 0.0001). Calibration was good for the internally generated BMD T score predictor with or without age and poor for the externally developed risk tools. CONCLUSION:In untreated older men without fragility fractures at baseline, an age plus femoral neck BMD T score classifier identified men with incident hip fracture as accurately as more complicated fracture risk scores.
| S-EPMC5695884 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A large number of SNPs significant for osteoporosis (OP) had been identified by genome-wide association studies. However, the underlying association mechanisms were largely unknown. From the perspective of protein phosphorylation, gene expression regulation, and bone cell activity, this study aims to illustrate association mechanisms for representative SNPs of interest. We utilized public databases and bioinformatics tool to identify OP-associated SNPs which potentially influence protein phosphorylation (phosSNPs). Associations with hip/spine BMD, as well as fracture risk, in human populations for one significant phosSNP, that is, rs227584 (major/minor allele: C/A, EAS population) located in C17orf53 gene, were suggested in prior meta-analyses. Specifically, carriers of allele C had significant higher BMD and lower risk of low-trauma fractures than carriers of A. We pursued to test the molecular and cellular functions of rs227584 in bone through osteoblastic cell culture and multiple assays. We identified five phosSNPs significant for OP (P < 0.01). The osteoblastic cells, which was transfected with wild-type C17orf53 (allele C at rs227584, P126), demonstrated specific interaction with NEK2 kinase, increased expression levels of osteoblastic genes significantly (OPN, OCN, COL1A1, P < 0.05), and promoted osteoblast growth and ALP activity, in contrast to those transfected with mutant C17orf53 (allele A at rs227584, T126). In the light of the consistent evidences between the present functional study in human bone cells and the prior association studies in human populations, we conclude that the SNP rs227584, via altering protein-kinase interaction, regulates osteoblastic gene expression, influences osteoblast growth and activity, hence to affect BMD and fracture risk in humans.
| S-EPMC6349212 | biostudies-literature
Project description:FRAX is a tool that identifies individuals with high fracture risk who will benefit from pharmacological treatment of osteoporosis. However, a majority of fractures among elderly occur in people without osteoporosis and most occur after a fall. Our aim was to accurately identify men with a high future risk of fracture, independent of cause. In the population-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) and using survival analysis we studied different models' prognostic values (R(2)) for any fracture and hip fracture within 10 years from age 50 (n?=?2322), 60 (n?=?1852), 71 (n?=?1221), and 82 (n?=?526) years. During the total follow-up period from age 50 years, 897 fractures occurred in 585 individuals. Of these, 281 were hip fractures occurring in 189 individuals. The rates of any fracture were 5.7/1000 person-years at risk from age 50 years and 25.9/1000 person-years at risk from age 82 years. Corresponding hip fractures rates were 2.9 and 11.7/1000 person-years at risk. The FRAX model included all variables in FRAX except bone mineral density. The full model combining FRAX variables, comorbidity, medications, and behavioral factors explained 25% to 45% of all fractures and 80% to 92% of hip fractures, depending on age. The corresponding prognostic values of the FRAX model were 7% to 17% for all fractures and 41% to 60% for hip fractures. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) comparing the full model with the FRAX model ranged between 40% and 53% for any fracture and between 40% and 87% for hip fracture. Within the highest quintile of predicted fracture risk with the full model, one-third of the men will have a fracture within 10 years after age 71 years and two-thirds after age 82 years. We conclude that the addition of comorbidity, medication, and behavioral factors to the clinical components of FRAX can substantially improve the ability to identify men at high risk of fracture, especially hip fracture.
| S-EPMC3415621 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Proper knee kinematics depends upon the integrity of ACL at its femoral and medial tibial spine attachments. Tibial spine fractures disrupt this complex and if untreated can lead to pain, instability and functional limitation. So proper diagnosis and early treatment of tibial spine avulsion fracture is important. Tibial spine fractures are often associated with intra-articular injuries which are more common in adults. Diagnosis and treatment of these associated injuries along with proper fixation of tibial spine fractures are essential. Surgical options for tibial spine fractures include reduction and fixation through arthrotomy or arthroscopic technique. Arthroscopic technique is now more popular as it allows accurate diagnosis and treatment of associated injuries, reduction and fixation of all types of tibial spine fractures and reduced morbidity compared with open techniques.
| S-EPMC5990123 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have revealed numerous loci for areal bone mineral density (aBMD). We completed the first GWAS meta-analysis (n?=?15,275) of lumbar spine volumetric BMD (vBMD) measured by quantitative computed tomography (QCT), allowing for examination of the trabecular bone compartment. SNPs that were significantly associated with vBMD were also examined in two GWAS meta-analyses to determine associations with morphometric vertebral fracture (n?=?21,701) and clinical vertebral fracture (n?=?5893). Expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analyses of iliac crest biopsies were performed in 84 postmenopausal women, and murine osteoblast expression of genes implicated by eQTL or by proximity to vBMD-associated SNPs was examined. We identified significant vBMD associations with five loci, including: 1p36.12, containing WNT4 and ZBTB40; 8q24, containing TNFRSF11B; and 13q14, containing AKAP11 and TNFSF11. Two loci (5p13 and 1p36.12) also contained associations with radiographic and clinical vertebral fracture, respectively. In 5p13, rs2468531 (minor allele frequency [MAF]?=?3%) was associated with higher vBMD (??=?0.22, p?=?1.9?×?10-8 ) and decreased risk of radiographic vertebral fracture (odds ratio [OR]?=?0.75; false discovery rate [FDR] p?=?0.01). In 1p36.12, rs12742784 (MAF?=?21%) was associated with higher vBMD (??=?0.09, p?=?1.2?×?10-10 ) and decreased risk of clinical vertebral fracture (OR?=?0.82; FDR p?=?7.4?×?10-4 ). Both SNPs are noncoding and were associated with increased mRNA expression levels in human bone biopsies: rs2468531 with SLC1A3 (??=?0.28, FDR p?=?0.01, involved in glutamate signaling and osteogenic response to mechanical loading) and rs12742784 with EPHB2 (??=?0.12, FDR p?=?1.7?×?10-3 , functions in bone-related ephrin signaling). Both genes are expressed in murine osteoblasts. This is the first study to link SLC1A3 and EPHB2 to clinically relevant vertebral osteoporosis phenotypes. These results may help elucidate vertebral bone biology and novel approaches to reducing vertebral fracture incidence. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
| S-EPMC5477772 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAccurately quantifying the risk of osteoporotic fracture is important for directing appropriate clinical interventions. While skeletal measures such as heel quantitative speed of sound (SOS) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density are able to predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture, the utility of such measurements is subject to the availability of equipment and human resources. Using data from 341,449 individuals of white British ancestry, we previously developed a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS), called gSOS, that captured 25.0% of the total variance in SOS. Here, we test whether gSOS can improve fracture risk prediction.MethodsWe examined the predictive power of gSOS in five genome-wide genotyped cohorts, including 90,172 individuals of European ancestry and 25,034 individuals of Asian ancestry. We calculated gSOS for each individual and tested for the association between gSOS and incident major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. We tested whether adding gSOS to the risk prediction models had added value over models using other commonly used clinical risk factors.ResultsA standard deviation decrease in gSOS was associated with an increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in populations of European ancestry, with odds ratios ranging from 1.35 to 1.46 in four cohorts. It was also associated with a 1.26-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.41) increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in the Asian population. We demonstrated that gSOS was more predictive of incident major osteoporotic fracture (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.734; 95% CI 0.727-0.740) and incident hip fracture (AUROC = 0.798; 95% CI 0.791-0.805) than most traditional clinical risk factors, including prior fracture, use of corticosteroids, rheumatoid arthritis, and smoking. We also showed that adding gSOS to the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) could refine the risk prediction with a positive net reclassification index ranging from 0.024 to 0.072.ConclusionsWe generated and validated a PRS for SOS which was associated with the risk of fracture. This score was more strongly associated with the risk of fracture than many clinical risk factors and provided an improvement in risk prediction. gSOS should be explored as a tool to improve risk stratification to identify individuals at high risk of fracture.
| S-EPMC7860212 | biostudies-literature