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Elimination of HIV in South Africa through expanded access to antiretroviral therapy: a model comparison study.

ABSTRACT: Expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) using universal test and treat (UTT) has been suggested as a strategy to eliminate HIV in South Africa within 7 y based on an influential mathematical modeling study. However, the underlying deterministic model was criticized widely, and other modeling studies did not always confirm the study's finding. The objective of our study is to better understand the implications of different model structures and assumptions, so as to arrive at the best possible predictions of the long-term impact of UTT and the possibility of elimination of HIV.We developed nine structurally different mathematical models of the South African HIV epidemic in a stepwise approach of increasing complexity and realism. The simplest model resembles the initial deterministic model, while the most comprehensive model is the stochastic microsimulation model STDSIM, which includes sexual networks and HIV stages with different degrees of infectiousness. We defined UTT as annual screening and immediate ART for all HIV-infected adults, starting at 13% in January 2012 and scaled up to 90% coverage by January 2019. All models predict elimination, yet those that capture more processes underlying the HIV transmission dynamics predict elimination at a later point in time, after 20 to 25 y. Importantly, the most comprehensive model predicts that the current strategy of ART at CD4 count ?350 cells/µl will also lead to elimination, albeit 10 y later compared to UTT. Still, UTT remains cost-effective, as many additional life-years would be saved. The study's major limitations are that elimination was defined as incidence below 1/1,000 person-years rather than 0% prevalence, and drug resistance was not modeled.Our results confirm previous predictions that the HIV epidemic in South Africa can be eliminated through universal testing and immediate treatment at 90% coverage. However, more realistic models show that elimination is likely to occur at a much later point in time than the initial model suggested. Also, UTT is a cost-effective intervention, but less cost-effective than previously predicted because the current South African ART treatment policy alone could already drive HIV into elimination. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

SUBMITTER: Hontelez JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3805487 | biostudies-other | 2013 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Elimination of HIV in South Africa through expanded access to antiretroviral therapy: a model comparison study.

Hontelez Jan A C JA Lurie Mark N MN Bärnighausen Till T Bakker Roel R Baltussen Rob R Tanser Frank F Hallett Timothy B TB Newell Marie-Louise ML de Vlas Sake J SJ

PLoS medicine 20131022 10

<h4>Background</h4>Expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) using universal test and treat (UTT) has been suggested as a strategy to eliminate HIV in South Africa within 7 y based on an influential mathematical modeling study. However, the underlying deterministic model was criticized widely, and other modeling studies did not always confirm the study's finding. The objective of our study is to better understand the implications of different model structures and assumptions, so as to arri ...[more]

PMID: 24167449

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Project description:BackgroundWhile South Africa spends approximately 7.4% of GDP on healthcare, only 43% of these funds are spent in the public system, which is tasked with the provision of care to the majority of the population including a large proportion of those in need of antiretroviral treatment (ART). South Africa is currently debating the introduction of a National Health Insurance (NHI) system. Because such a universal health system could mean increased public healthcare funding and improved access to human resources, it could improve the sustainability of ART provision. This paper considers the minimum resources that would be required to achieve the proposed universal health system and contrasts these with the costs of scaled up access to ART between 2010 and 2020.MethodsThe costs of ART and universal coverage (UC) are assessed through multiplying unit costs, utilization and estimates of the population in need during each year of the planning cycle. Costs are from the provider's perspective reflected in real 2007 prices.ResultsThe annual costs of providing ART increase from US$1 billion in 2010 to US$3.6 billion in 2020. If increases in funding to public healthcare only keep pace with projected real GDP growth, then close to 30% of these resources would be required for ART by 2020. However, an increase in the public healthcare resource envelope from 3.2% to 5%-6% of GDP would be sufficient to finance both ART and other services under a universal system (if based on a largely public sector model) and the annual costs of ART would not exceed 15% of the universal health system budget.ConclusionsResponding to the HIV-epidemic is one of the many challenges currently facing South Africa. Whether this response becomes a "resource for democracy" or whether it undermines social cohesiveness within poor communities and between rich and poor communities will be partially determined by the steps that are taken during the next ten years. While the introduction of a universal system will be complex, it could generate a health system responsive to the needs of all South Africans.

Project description:BackgroundAccurately identifying individuals who are on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important to determine ART coverage and proportion on ART who are virally suppressed. ART is also included in recent infection testing algorithms used to estimate incidence. We compared estimates of ART coverage, viral load suppression rates and HIV incidence using ART self-report and detection of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs and we identified factors associated with discordance between the methods.MethodsCross-sectional population-based survey in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Individuals 15-59 years were eligible. Interviews included questions about ARV use. Rapid HIV testing was performed at the participants' home. Blood specimens were collected for ARV detection, LAg-Avidity HIV incidence testing and viral load quantification in HIV-positive individuals. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify socio-demographic covariates associated with discordance between self-reported ART and ARV detection.ResultsOf the 5649 individuals surveyed, 1423 were HIV-positive. Median age was 34 years and 76.3% were women. ART coverage was estimated at 51.4% (95%CI:48.5-54.3), 53.1% (95%CI:50.2-55.9) and 56.1% (95%CI:53.5-58.8) using self-reported ART, ARV detection and both methods combined (classified as ART exposed if ARV detected and/or ART reported) respectively. ART coverage estimates using the 3 methods were fairly similar within sex and age categories except in individuals aged 15-19 years: 33.3% (95%CI:23.3-45.2), 33.8% (95%CI:23.9-45.4%) and 44.3% (95%CI:39.3-46.7) using self-reported ART, ARV detection and both methods combined. Viral suppression below 1000cp/mL in individuals on ART was estimated at 89.8% (95%CI:87.3-91.9), 93.1% (95%CI:91.0-94.8) and 88.7% (95%CI:86.2-90.7) using self-reported ART, ARV detection and both methods combined respectively. HIV incidence was estimated at 1.4 (95%CI:0.8-2.0) new cases/100 person-years when employing no measure of ARV use, 1.1/100PY (95%CI:0.6-1.7) using self-reported ART, and 1.2/100PY (95%CI:0.7-1.7) using ARV detection. In multivariate analyses, individuals aged 15-19 years had a higher risk of discordance on measures of ARV exposure (aOR:9.4; 95%CI:3.9-22.8), while migrants had a lower risk (aOR:0.3; 95%CI:0.1-0.6).ConclusionsIn KwaZulu-Natal, the method of identifying ARV use had little impact on estimates of ART coverage, viral suppression rate and HIV incidence. However, discordant results were more common in younger individuals. This may skew estimates of ART coverage and viral suppression, particularly in adolescent surveys.

Project description:BackgroundMortality in HIV-infected patients who have access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) has declined in sub-Saharan Africa, but it is unclear how mortality compares to the non-HIV-infected population. We compared mortality rates observed in HIV-1-infected patients starting ART with non-HIV-related background mortality in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa.Methods and findingsPatients enrolled in antiretroviral treatment programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe were included. We calculated excess mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Expected numbers of deaths were obtained using estimates of age-, sex-, and country-specific, HIV-unrelated, mortality rates from the Global Burden of Disease project. Among 13,249 eligible patients 1,177 deaths were recorded during 14,695 person-years of follow-up. The median age was 34 y, 8,831 (67%) patients were female, and 10,811 of 12,720 patients (85%) with information on clinical stage had advanced disease when starting ART. The excess mortality rate was 17.5 (95% CI 14.5-21.1) per 100 person-years SMR in patients who started ART with a CD4 cell count of less than 25 cells/microl and World Health Organization (WHO) stage III/IV, compared to 1.00 (0.55-1.81) per 100 person-years in patients who started with 200 cells/microl or above with WHO stage I/II. The corresponding SMRs were 47.1 (39.1-56.6) and 3.44 (1.91-6.17). Among patients who started ART with 200 cells/microl or above in WHO stage I/II and survived the first year of ART, the excess mortality rate was 0.27 (0.08-0.94) per 100 person-years and the SMR was 1.14 (0.47-2.77).ConclusionsMortality of HIV-infected patients treated with combination ART in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be higher than in the general population, but for some patients excess mortality is moderate and reaches that of the general population in the second year of ART. Much of the excess mortality might be prevented by timely initiation of ART.

Project description:IntroductionAbout half a million people in South Africa are deprived of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and there is little systematic knowledge on who they are - e.g. by severity of disease, sex, or socio-economic status (SES). We performed a systematic review to determine the current quantitative evidence-base on equity in utilization of ART among HIV-infected people in South Africa.MethodWe conducted a literature search based on the Cochrane guidelines. A study was included if it compared for different groups of HIV infected people (by sex, age, severity of disease, area of living, SES, marital status, ethnicity, religion and/or sexual orientation (i.e. equity criteria)) the number initiating/adhering to ART with the number who did not. We considered ART utilization inequitable for a certain criterion (e.g. sex) if between groups (e.g. men versus women) significant differences were reported in ART initiation/adherence.ResultsTwelve studies met the inclusion criteria. For sex, 2 out of 10 studies that investigated this criterion found that men are less likely than women to utilize ART, while the other 8 found no differences. For age, 4 out of 8 studies found inequities and reported less utilization for younger people. For area of living, 3 out of 4 studies showed that those living in rural areas or certain provinces have less access and 2 out of 6 studies looking at SES found that people with lower SES have less access. One study which looked at the marital status found that those who are married are less likely to utilize ART. For severity of disease, 5 out of 6 studies used more than one outcome measure for disease stage and reported within their study contradicting results. One of the studies reported inconclusive findings for ethnicity and no study had looked at religion and sexual orientation.ConclusionIt seems that men, young people, those living in certain provinces or rural areas, people who are unemployed or with a low educational level, and those being unmarried have less access to ART. As studies stem from different contexts and use different methods conclusions should be taken with caution.

Project description:Same-day initiation (SDI) of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been recommended to improve ART programme outcomes in South Africa since August 2017. This study assessed implementation of SDI over time in two South African districts, describing the characteristics of same-day initiators and evaluating the impact of SDI on retention in ART care. Routine data were analysed for HIV-infected adults who were newly initiating ART in Johannesburg or Mopani Districts between October 2017 and June 2018. Characteristics of same-day ART initiators were compared to later initiators, and losses to follow-up (LTFU) to six months were assessed using Kaplan Meier survival analysis and multivariate logistic regression. The dataset comprised 32 290 records (29 964 from Johannesburg and 2 326 from Mopani). The overall rate of SDI was 40.4% (n = 13 038), increasing from 30.3% in October 2017 to 54.2% in June 2018. Same-day ART initiators were younger, more likely to be female and presented with less advanced clinical disease than those initiating treatment at later times following diagnosis (p<0.001 for all). SDI was associated with disengagement from care: LTFU was 30.1% in the SDI group compared to 22.4%, 19.8% and 21.9% among clients initiating ART 1-7 days, 8-21 days and ≥22 days after HIV diagnosis, respectively (p<0.001). LTFU was significantly more likely among clients in Johannesburg versus Mopani (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.43, p<0.001) and among same-day versus later initiators (aOR = 1.45, p<0.001), while increasing age reduced LTFU (aOR = 0.97, p<0.001). In conclusion, SDI has increased over time as per national guidelines, but there is serious concern regarding the reduced rate of retention among same-day initiators. Nevertheless, SDI may result in a net programmatic benefit provided that interventions are implemented to support client readiness for treatment and ongoing engagement in ART care, particularly among younger adults in large ART programmes such as Johannesburg.

Dataset Information

Elimination of HIV in South Africa through expanded access to antiretroviral therapy: a model comparison study.

Publications

Elimination of HIV in South Africa through expanded access to antiretroviral therapy: a model comparison study.

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