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Clinical-guide risk prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development in chronic hepatitis C patients after interferon-based therapy.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Interferon (IFN)-based therapies could eradicate hepatitis C (HCV) and reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, HCC could still happen after sustained virological response (SVR). We aimed to develop a simple scoring system to predict the risk of HCC development among HCV patients after antiviral therapies. METHODS: From 1999 to 2009, 1879 patients with biopsy-proven HCV infection treated with IFN-based therapies were analyzed. RESULTS: Multivariable analysis showed old age (adjusted HR (aHR)=1.73, 95% CI=1.13-2.65 for aged 60-69 and aHR=2.20, 95% CI=1.43-3.37 for aged ? 70), Male gender (aHR=1.74, 95% CI=1.26-2.41), platelet count <150 × 10(9)/l (HR=1.91, 95% CI=1.27-2.86), ?-fetoprotein ? 20 ng ml(-1) (HR=2.23, 95% CI=1.58-3.14), high fibrotic stage (HR=3.32, 95% CI=2.10-5.22), HCV genotype 1b (HR=1.53, 95% CI=1.10-2.14), and non SVR (HR=2.40, 95% CI=1.70-3.38) were independent risk factors for HCC. Regression coefficients were used to build up a risk score and the accuracy was evaluated by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Three groups as low-, intermediate-, and high-risk are classified based on the risk scores. One hundred sixty patients (12.78%) in the derivation and 82 patients (13.08%) in the validation cohort developed HCC with AUC of 79.4%, sensitivity of 84.38%, and specificity of 60.66%. In the validation cohort, the 5-year HCC incidence was 1.81%, 12.92%, and 29.95% in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, with hazard ratios 4.49 in intermediate- and 16.14 in high-risk group respectively. The risk reduction of HCC is greatest in patients with SVR, with a 5-year and 10-year risk reduction of 28.91% and 27.99% respectively. CONCLUSION: The risk scoring system is accurate in predicting HCC development for HCV patients after antiviral therapies.

SUBMITTER: Chang KC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3817320 | biostudies-other | 2013 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Clinical-guide risk prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development in chronic hepatitis C patients after interferon-based therapy.

Chang K-C KC Wu Y-Y YY Hung C-H CH Lu S-N SN Lee C-M CM Chiu K-W KW Tsai M-C MC Tseng P-L PL Huang C-M CM Cho C-L CL Chen H-H HH Hu T-H TH

British journal of cancer 20131001 9

<h4>Background</h4>Interferon (IFN)-based therapies could eradicate hepatitis C (HCV) and reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, HCC could still happen after sustained virological response (SVR). We aimed to develop a simple scoring system to predict the risk of HCC development among HCV patients after antiviral therapies.<h4>Methods</h4>From 1999 to 2009, 1879 patients with biopsy-proven HCV infection treated with IFN-based therapies were analyzed.<h4>Results</h4>Multivaria ...[more]

PMID: 24084770

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Project description:Importance:Antiviral therapy cannot erase hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B, and it is not indicated for most hepatitis B virus (HBV) carriers. Another effective way of reducing HCC risk needs to be developed. Aspirin may prevent cancer development, but clinical evidence in patients with HBV-related HCC remains limited. Objective:To investigate the association of daily aspirin therapy with HBV-related HCC risk. Design, Setting, and Participants:In this Taiwan nationwide cohort study, we screened 204 507 patients with chronic hepatitis B for the period January 1, 1997, to December 31, 2012. After excluding patients with confounding conditions, 2123 patients who continuously received daily aspirin for 90 or more days (treated group) were randomly matched 1:4 with 8492 patients who had never received antiplatelet therapy (untreated group) by means of propensity scores, consisting of the follow-up index date, baseline characteristics, and potentially chemopreventive drug use during follow-up. Data were analyzed from August 1 to November 30, 2018. Exposures:Daily aspirin therapy during the study period. Main Outcomes and Measures:Both cumulative incidence of and hazard ratios (HRs) for HCC development were analyzed after adjusting patient mortality as a competing risk event. Results:Of the 10 615 patients included in the analysis, 7690 (72.4%) were men; mean (SD) age was 58.8 (11.8) years. The cumulative incidence of HCC in the treated group was significantly lower than that in the untreated group in 5 years (5.20%; 95% CI, 4.11%-6.29% vs 7.87%; 95% CI, 7.15%-8.60%; P < .001). In the multivariable regression analysis, aspirin therapy was independently associated with a reduced HCC risk (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.58-0.86; P < .001). Sensitivity subgroup analyses also verified this association (all HRs <1.0). In addition, older age (HR, 1.01 per year; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02), male sex (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.43-2.14), and cirrhosis (HR, 2.89; 95% CI, 2.45-3.40) were independently associated with an increased HCC risk, but nucleos(t)ide analogue (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.41-0.71) or statin (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42-0.90) use was correlated with a decreased HCC risk. Conclusions and Relevance:Daily aspirin therapy may be associated with a reduced risk of HBV-related HCC.

Dataset Information

Clinical-guide risk prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development in chronic hepatitis C patients after interferon-based therapy.

Publications

Clinical-guide risk prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development in chronic hepatitis C patients after interferon-based therapy.

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