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BitCoin meets Google Trends and Wikipedia: quantifying the relationship between phenomena of the Internet era.

ABSTRACT: Digital currencies have emerged as a new fascinating phenomenon in the financial markets. Recent events on the most popular of the digital currencies--BitCoin--have risen crucial questions about behavior of its exchange rates and they offer a field to study dynamics of the market which consists practically only of speculative traders with no fundamentalists as there is no fundamental value to the currency. In the paper, we connect two phenomena of the latest years--digital currencies, namely BitCoin, and search queries on Google Trends and Wikipedia--and study their relationship. We show that not only are the search queries and the prices connected but there also exists a pronounced asymmetry between the effect of an increased interest in the currency while being above or below its trend value.

SUBMITTER: Kristoufek L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3849639 | biostudies-other | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundSalmonella infection (salmonellosis) is a common infectious disease leading to gastroenteritis, dehydration, uveitis, etc. Internet search is a new method to monitor the outbreak of infectious disease. An internet-based surveillance system using internet data is logistically advantageous and economical to show term-related diseases. In this study, we tried to determine the relationship between salmonellosis and Google Trends in the USA from January 2004 to December 2017.MethodsWe downloaded the reported salmonellosis in the USA from the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) from January 2004 to December 2017. Additionally, we downloaded the Google search terms related to salmonellosis from Google Trends in the same period. Cross-correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were conducted.ResultsThe results showed that 6 Google Trends search terms appeared earlier than reported salmonellosis, 26 Google Trends search terms coincided with salmonellosis, and 16 Google Trends search terms appeared after salmonellosis were reported. When the search terms preceded outbreaks, "foods" (t = 2.927, P = 0.004) was a predictor of salmonellosis. When the search terms coincided with outbreaks, "hotel" (t = 1.854, P = 0.066), "poor sanitation" (t = 2.895, P = 0.004), "blueberries" (t = 2.441, P = 0.016), and "hypovolemic shock" (t = 2.001, P = 0.047) were predictors of salmonellosis. When the search terms appeared after outbreaks, "ice cream" (t = 3.077, P = 0.002) was the predictor of salmonellosis. Finally, we identified the most important indicators of Google Trends search terms, including "hotel" (t = 1.854, P = 0.066), "poor sanitation" (t = 2.895, P = 0.004), "blueberries" (t = 2.441, P = 0.016), and "hypovolemic shock" (t = 2.001, P = 0.047). In the future, the increased search activities of these terms might indicate the salmonellosis.ConclusionWe evaluated the related Google Trends search terms with salmonellosis and identified the most important predictors of salmonellosis outbreak.

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BitCoin meets Google Trends and Wikipedia: quantifying the relationship between phenomena of the Internet era.

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