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Concordance of effects of medical interventions on hospital admission and readmission rates with effects on mortality.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Many clinical trials examine a composite outcome of admission to hospital and death, or infer a relationship between hospital admission and survival benefit. This assumes concordance of the outcomes "hospital admission" and "death." However, whether the effects of a treatment on hospital admissions and readmissions correlate to its effect on serious outcomes such as death is unknown. We aimed to assess the correlation and concordance of effects of medical interventions on admission rates and mortality. METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from its inception to January 2012 (issue 1, 2012) for systematic reviews of treatment comparisons that included meta-analyses for both admission and mortality outcomes. For each meta-analysis, we synthesized treatment effects on admissions and death, from respective randomized trials reporting those outcomes, using random-effects models. We then measured the concordance of directions of effect sizes and the correlation of summary estimates for the 2 outcomes. RESULTS: We identified 61 meta-analyses including 398 trials reporting mortality and 182 trials reporting admission rates; 125 trials reported both outcomes. In 27.9% of comparisons, the point estimates of treatment effects for the 2 outcomes were in opposite directions; in 8.2% of trials, the 95% confidence intervals did not overlap. We found no significant correlation between effect sizes for admission and death (Pearson r = 0.07, p = 0.6). Our results were similar when we limited our analysis to trials reporting both outcomes. INTERPRETATION: In this metaepidemiological study, admission and mortality outcomes did not correlate, and discordances occurred in about one-third of the treatment comparisons included in our analyses. Both outcomes convey useful information and should be reported separately, but extrapolating the benefits of admission to survival is unreliable and should be avoided.

SUBMITTER: Hemkens LG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3855143 | biostudies-other | 2013 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Concordance of effects of medical interventions on hospital admission and readmission rates with effects on mortality.

Hemkens Lars G LG Contopoulos-Ioannidis Despina G DG Ioannidis John P A JP

CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne 20131021 18

<h4>Background</h4>Many clinical trials examine a composite outcome of admission to hospital and death, or infer a relationship between hospital admission and survival benefit. This assumes concordance of the outcomes "hospital admission" and "death." However, whether the effects of a treatment on hospital admissions and readmissions correlate to its effect on serious outcomes such as death is unknown. We aimed to assess the correlation and concordance of effects of medical interventions on admi ...[more]

PMID: 24144601

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Project description:ImportanceThe Affordable Care Act has led to US national reductions in hospital 30-day readmission rates for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and pneumonia. Whether readmission reductions have had the unintended consequence of increasing mortality after hospitalization is unknown.ObjectiveTo examine the correlation of paired trends in hospital 30-day readmission rates and hospital 30-day mortality rates after discharge.Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older hospitalized with HF, AMI, or pneumonia from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2014.ExposureThirty-day risk-adjusted readmission rate (RARR).Main outcomes and measuresThirty-day RARRs and 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rates (RAMRs) after discharge were calculated for each condition in each month at each hospital in 2008 through 2014. Monthly trends in each hospital's 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were examined for each condition. The weighted Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated for hospitals' paired monthly trends in 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge for each condition.ResultsIn 2008 through 2014, 2 962 554 hospitalizations for HF, 1 229 939 for AMI, and 2 544 530 for pneumonia were identified at 5016, 4772, and 5057 hospitals, respectively. In January 2008, mean hospital 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were 24.6% and 8.4% for HF, 19.3% and 7.6% for AMI, and 18.3% and 8.5% for pneumonia. Hospital 30-day RARRs declined in the aggregate across hospitals from 2008 through 2014; monthly changes in RARRs were -0.053% (95% CI, -0.055% to -0.051%) for HF, -0.044% (95% CI, -0.047% to -0.041%) for AMI, and -0.033% (95% CI, -0.035% to -0.031%) for pneumonia. In contrast, monthly aggregate changes across hospitals in hospital 30-day RAMRs after discharge varied by condition: HF, 0.008% (95% CI, 0.007% to 0.010%); AMI, -0.003% (95% CI, -0.005% to -0.001%); and pneumonia, 0.001% (95% CI, -0.001% to 0.003%). However, correlation coefficients in hospitals' paired monthly changes in 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were weakly positive: HF, 0.066 (95% CI, 0.036 to 0.096); AMI, 0.067 (95% CI, 0.027 to 0.106); and pneumonia, 0.108 (95% CI, 0.079 to 0.137). Findings were similar in secondary analyses, including with alternate definitions of hospital mortality.Conclusions and relevanceAmong Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or pneumonia, reductions in hospital 30-day readmission rates were weakly but significantly correlated with reductions in hospital 30-day mortality rates after discharge. These findings do not support increasing postdischarge mortality related to reducing hospital readmissions.

Project description:Importance:Hospital readmissions contribute to higher expenditures and may sometimes reflect suboptimal patient care. Individuals discharged against medical advice (AMA) are a vulnerable patient population and may have higher risk for readmission. Objectives:To determine odds of readmission and mortality for patients discharged AMA vs all others, to characterize patient and hospital-level factors associated with readmissions, and to quantify their overall cost burden. Design, Setting, and Participants:Nationally representative, all-payer cohort study using the 2014 National Readmissions Database. Eligible index admissions were nonobstetrical/newborn hospitalizations for patients 18 years and older discharged between January 2014 and November 2014. Admissions were excluded if there was a missing primary diagnosis, discharge disposition, length of stay, or if the patient died during that hospitalization. Data were analyzed between January 2018 and June 2018. Exposures:Discharge AMA and non-AMA discharge. Main Outcomes and Measures:Thirty-day all-cause readmission and in-hospital mortality rate. Results:There were 19.9 million weighted index admissions, of which 1.5% resulted in an AMA discharge. Within the AMA cohort, 85% were younger than 65 years, 63% were male, 55% had Medicaid or other (including uninsured) coverage, and 39% were in the lowest income quartile. Thirty-day all-cause readmission was 21.0% vs 11.9% for AMA vs non-AMA discharge (P?<?.001), and 30-day in-hospital mortality was 2.5% vs 5.6% (P?<?.001), respectively. Individuals discharged AMA were more likely to be readmitted to a different hospital compared with non-AMA patients (43.0% vs 23.9%; P?<?.001). Of all 30-day readmissions, 19.0% occurred within the first day after AMA discharge vs 6.1% for non-AMA patients (P?<?.001). On multivariable regression, AMA discharge was associated with a 2.01 (95% CI, 1.97-2.05) increased adjusted odds of readmission and a 0.80 (95% CI, 0.74-0.87) decreased adjusted odds of in-hospital mortality compared with non-AMA discharge. Nationwide readmissions after AMA discharge accounted for more than 400?000 inpatient hospitalization days at a total cost of $822 million in 2014. Conclusions and Relevance:Individuals discharged AMA have higher odds of 30-day readmission at significant cost to the health care system and lower in-hospital mortality rates compared with non-AMA patients. Patients discharged AMA are also more likely to be readmitted to different hospitals and to have earlier bounce-back readmissions, which may reflect dissatisfaction with their initial episode of care.

Project description:Medicare penalizes hospitals with higher than expected readmission rates by up to 3% of annual inpatient payments. Expected rates are adjusted only for patients' age, sex, discharge diagnosis, and recent diagnoses.To assess the extent to which a comprehensive set of patient characteristics accounts for differences in hospital readmission rates.Using survey data from the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and linked Medicare claims for HRS participants enrolled in Medicare who were hospitalized from 2009 to 2012 (n = 8067 admissions), we assessed 29 patient characteristics from survey data and claims as potential predictors of 30-day readmission when added to standard Medicare adjustments of hospital readmission rates. We then compared the distribution of these characteristics between participants admitted to hospitals with higher vs lower hospital-wide readmission rates reported by Medicare. Finally, we estimated differences in the probability of readmission between these groups of participants before vs after adjusting for the additional patient characteristics.All-cause readmission within 30 days of discharge.Of the additional 29 patient characteristics assessed, 22 significantly predicted readmission beyond standard adjustments, and 17 of these were distributed differently between hospitals in the highest vs lowest quintiles of publicly reported hospital-wide readmission rates (P ? .04 for all comparisons). Almost all of these differences (16 of 17) indicated that participants admitted to hospitals in the highest quintile of readmission rates were more likely to have characteristics that were associated with a higher probability of readmission. The difference in the probability of readmission between participants admitted to hospitals in the highest vs lowest quintile of hospital-wide readmission rates was reduced by 48% from 4.41 percentage points with standard adjustments used by Medicare to 2.29 percentage points after adjustment for all patient characteristics assessed (reduction in difference: -2.12; 95% CI, -3.33 to -0.67; P =?.003).Patient characteristics not included in Medicare's current risk-adjustment methods explained much of the difference in readmission risk between patients admitted to hospitals with higher vs lower readmission rates. Hospitals with high readmission rates may be penalized to a large extent based on the patients they serve.

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Concordance of effects of medical interventions on hospital admission and readmission rates with effects on mortality.

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Concordance of effects of medical interventions on hospital admission and readmission rates with effects on mortality.

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