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Cost-effectiveness of a new rotavirus vaccination program in Pakistan: a decision tree model.

ABSTRACT: Rotavirus gastroenteritis places a significant health and economic burden on Pakistan. To determine the public health impact of a national rotavirus vaccination program, we performed a cost-effectiveness study from the perspective of the health care system.A decision tree model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a national vaccination program in Pakistan. Disease and cost burden with the program were compared to the current state. Disease parameters, vaccine-related costs, and medical treatment costs were based on published epidemiological and economic data, which were specific to Pakistan when possible. An annual birth cohort of children was followed for 5 years to model the public health impact of vaccination on health-related events and costs. The cost-effectiveness was assessed and quantified in cost (2012 US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted and cost per death averted. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).The base case results showed vaccination prevented 1.2 million cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis, 93,000 outpatient visits, 43,000 hospitalizations, and 6700 deaths by 5 years of age for an annual birth cohort scaled from 6% current coverage to DPT3 levels (85%). The medical cost savings would be US$1.4 million from hospitalizations and US$200,000 from outpatient visit costs. The vaccination program would cost US$35 million at a vaccine price of US$5.00. The ICER was US$149.50 per DALY averted or US$4972 per death averted. Sensitivity analyses showed changes in case-fatality ratio, vaccine efficacy, and vaccine cost exerted the greatest influence on the ICER.Across a range of sensitivity analyses, a national rotavirus vaccination program was predicted to decrease health and economic burden due to rotavirus gastroenteritis in Pakistan by ~40%. Vaccination was highly cost-effective in this context. As discussions of implementing the intervention intensify, future studies should address affordability, efficiency, and equity of vaccination introduction.

SUBMITTER: Patel HD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3865920 | biostudies-other | 2013 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Cost-effectiveness of a new rotavirus vaccination program in Pakistan: a decision tree model.

Patel Hiten D HD Roberts Eric T ET Constenla Dagna O DO

Vaccine 20131029 51

<h4>Background</h4>Rotavirus gastroenteritis places a significant health and economic burden on Pakistan. To determine the public health impact of a national rotavirus vaccination program, we performed a cost-effectiveness study from the perspective of the health care system.<h4>Methods</h4>A decision tree model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a national vaccination program in Pakistan. Disease and cost burden with the program were compared to the current state. Disease paramet ...[more]

PMID: 24176497

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Project description:BackgroundRotavirus is the most common cause of severe diarrhea leading to hospitalization or disease-specific death among young children. New rotavirus vaccines have recently been approved. Some previous studies have provided broad qualitative insights into the health and economic consequences of introducing the vaccines into low-income countries, representing several features of rotavirus infection, such as varying degrees of severity and age-dependency of clinical manifestation, in their model-based analyses. We extend this work to reflect additional features of rotavirus (e.g., the possibility of reinfection and varying degrees of partial immunity conferred by natural infection), and assess the influence of the features on the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination.MethodsWe developed a Markov model that reflects key features of rotavirus infection, using the most recent data available. We applied the model to the 2004 Vietnamese birth cohort and re-evaluated the cost-effectiveness (2004 US dollars per disability-adjusted life year [DALY]) of rotavirus vaccination (Rotarix) compared to no vaccination, from both societal and health care system perspectives. We conducted univariate sensitivity analyses and also performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, based on Monte Carlo simulations drawing parameter values from the distributions assigned to key uncertain parameters.ResultsRotavirus vaccination would not completely protect young children against rotavirus infection due to the partial nature of vaccine immunity, but would effectively reduce severe cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis (outpatient visits, hospitalizations, or deaths) by about 67% over the first 5 years of life. Under base-case assumptions (94% coverage and $5 per dose), the incremental cost per DALY averted from vaccination compared to no vaccination would be $540 from the societal perspective and $550 from the health care system perspective.ConclusionIntroducing rotavirus vaccines would be a cost-effective public health intervention in Vietnam. However, given the uncertainty about vaccine efficacy and potential changes in rotavirus epidemiology in local settings, further clinical research and re-evaluation of rotavirus vaccination programs may be necessary as new information emerges.

Project description:IntroductionRotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death in children under five years of age in the Philippines. Rotavirus (RV) vaccination was introduced into the national immunization program (NIP) in 2012 but has since been limited to one region due to cost considerations and conflicting local cost-effectiveness estimates. Updated estimates of the cost-effectiveness of RV vaccination are required to inform prioritization of national immunization activities.MethodsWe calculated the potential costs and benefits of rotavirus vaccination over a 10-year-period (2021-2031) from a government and societal perspective, comparing four alternative rotavirus vaccines: Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq. For each vaccine, a proportionate outcomes model was used to calculate the expected number of disease events, DALYs, vaccination program costs, and healthcare costs, with and without vaccination. The primary outcome measure was the cost per DALY averted. Assuming each product would generate similar benefits, the dominant (lowest cost) product was identified. We then calculated the cost-effectiveness (US$ per Disability Adjusted Life Year [DALY] averted) of the least costly product and compared it to willingness-to-pay thresholds of 0.5 and 1 times the national GDP per capita ($3,485), and ran deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsIntroducing any of the four rotavirus vaccines would avert around 40% of RVGE visits, hospitalizations, and deaths over the period 2021-2031. Over the same ten-year period, the incremental cost of vaccination from a government perspective was estimated to be around $104, $105, $220, and $277 million for Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq, respectively. The equivalent cost from a societal perspective was $58, $60, $178 and $231 million. The cost-effectiveness of the least costly product (Rotavac) was $1,148 ($830-$1682) from a government perspective and $646 ($233-1277) from a societal perspective. All other products offered similar benefits but at a higher cost. There is a >99% probability that Rotavac would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold set at 0.5 times the national GDP per capita.ConclusionBoth Rotavac and Rotasiil are likely to be cost-effective options in the Philippines, but it is not possible to say definitively which product should be preferred. Rotarix and Rotateq are expected to offer similar benefits at more cost, so would need to be priced far more competitively to be considered for introduction.

Project description:IntroductionDiarrhea is a leading cause of mortality worldwide and rotavirus accounts for many of these deaths. As of August 2018, 96 countries have introduced rotavirus vaccines into their immunization programs. Two rotavirus vaccines, Rotarix® and RotaTeq®, have been WHO-prequalified since 2009, with Rotarix® being the preferred product of most Gavi-supported countries. ROTAVAC® and ROTASIIL® have both been prequalified recently.Materials and methodsWe reevaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh, Ghana, and Malawi and compared Rotarix®, ROTAVAC®, and ROTASIIL® in each country. For consistency with previously published analyses in these countries, we used the same Excel-based cohort model and much of the same data as the original analyses. We varied the expected price (with and without Gavi subsidy), wastage, and incremental health system costs associated with each vaccine. We assumed the same efficacy and waning assumptions following administration of two or three doses for the respective product.ResultsThe discounted cost per DALY averted compared to no vaccination ranged from 0.3 to 1.3 times GNI per capita for each vaccine. With the Gavi subsidy, the average cost-effectiveness ratios were below 0.3 times GNI per capita in all three countries. Though critical empirical cost data are not yet available, Rotarix® is the least costly and most cost-effective product in the countries examined in this modelling study. However, small decreases in the incremental health system cost for other products could result in cost and cost-effectiveness outcomes that match or surpass those of Rotarix®.ConclusionCountries may wish to consider new rotavirus vaccines entering the market. Countries should carefully examine multiple product attributes including price and the incremental health system costs associated with each vaccine. These costs will vary by country and may be a defining factor in determining the least costly and most cost-effective product for the population.

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Cost-effectiveness of a new rotavirus vaccination program in Pakistan: a decision tree model.

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Cost-effectiveness of a new rotavirus vaccination program in Pakistan: a decision tree model.

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