Dataset Information

Middle-Eastern plant communities tolerate 9 years of drought in a multi-site climate manipulation experiment.

ABSTRACT: For evaluating climate change impacts on biodiversity, extensive experiments are urgently needed to complement popular non-mechanistic models which map future ecosystem properties onto their current climatic niche. Here, we experimentally test the main prediction of these models by means of a novel multi-site approach. We implement rainfall manipulations--irrigation and drought--to dryland plant communities situated along a steep climatic gradient in a global biodiversity hotspot containing many wild progenitors of crops. Despite the large extent of our study, spanning nine plant generations and many species, very few differences between treatments were observed in the vegetation response variables: biomass, species composition, species richness and density. The lack of a clear drought effect challenges studies classifying dryland ecosystems as most vulnerable to global change. We attribute this resistance to the tremendous temporal and spatial heterogeneity under which the plants have evolved, concluding that this should be accounted for when predicting future biodiversity change.

SUBMITTER: Tielborger K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4205856 | biostudies-other | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Middle-Eastern plant communities tolerate 9 years of drought in a multi-site climate manipulation experiment.

Tielbörger Katja K Bilton Mark C MC Metz Johannes J Kigel Jaime J Holzapfel Claus C Lebrija-Trejos Edwin E Konsens Irit I Parag Hadas A HA Sternberg Marcelo M

Nature communications 20141006

For evaluating climate change impacts on biodiversity, extensive experiments are urgently needed to complement popular non-mechanistic models which map future ecosystem properties onto their current climatic niche. Here, we experimentally test the main prediction of these models by means of a novel multi-site approach. We implement rainfall manipulations--irrigation and drought--to dryland plant communities situated along a steep climatic gradient in a global biodiversity hotspot containing many ...[more]

PMID: 25283495

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Project description:Forest understory plant communities in the eastern United States are often diverse and are potentially sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric inputs of nitrogen caused by air pollution. In recent years, empirical and processed-based mathematical models have been developed to investigate such changes in plant communities. In the study reported here, a robust set of understory vegetation response functions (expressed as version 2 of the Probability of Occurrence of Plant Species model for the United States [US-PROPS v2]) was developed based on observations of forest understory and grassland plant species presence/absence and associated abiotic characteristics derived from spatial datasets. Improvements to the US-PROPS model, relative to version 1, were mostly focused on inclusion of additional input data, development of custom species-level input datasets, and implementation of methods to address uncertainty. We investigated the application of US-PROPS v2 to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, and climate change on forest ecosystems at three forested sites located in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee in the eastern United States. Species-level N and S critical loads (CLs) were determined under ambient deposition at all three modeled sites. The lowest species-level CLs of N deposition at each site were between 2 and 11 kg N/ha/yr. Similarly, the lowest CLs of S deposition, based on the predicted soil pH response, were less than 2 kg S/ha/yr among the three sites. Critical load exceedance was found at all three model sites. The New Hampshire site included the largest percentage of species in exceedance. Simulated warming air temperature typically resulted in lower maximum occurrence probability, which contributed to lower CLs of N and S deposition. The US-PROPS v2 model, together with the PROPS-CLF model to derive CL functions, can be used to develop site-specific CLs for understory plants within broad regions of the United States. This study demonstrates that species-level CLs of N and S deposition are spatially variable according to the climate, light availability, and soil characteristics at a given location. Although the species niche models generally performed well in predicting occurrence probability, there remains uncertainty with respect to the accuracy of reported CLs. As such, the specific CLs reported here should be considered as preliminary estimates.

Dataset Information

Middle-Eastern plant communities tolerate 9 years of drought in a multi-site climate manipulation experiment.

Publications

Middle-Eastern plant communities tolerate 9 years of drought in a multi-site climate manipulation experiment.

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