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Predicting recurrence patterns after resection of hepatocellular cancer.

ABSTRACT: The reliable prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence patterns potentially allows for the prioritization of patients for liver resection (LR) or transplantation.The aim of this study was to analyse clinicopathological factors and preoperative Milan criteria (MC) status in predicting patterns of HCC recurrence.During 1992-2012, 320 patients undergoing LR for HCC were categorized preoperatively as being within or beyond the MC, as were recurrences.After a median follow-up of 47 months, 183 patients developed recurrence, giving a 5-year cumulative incidence of recurrence of 62.5%. Patients with preoperative disease within the MC had better survival outcomes than those with preoperative disease beyond the MC (median survival: 102 months versus 45 months; P < 0.001). Overall, 31% of patients had preoperative disease within the MC and 69% had preoperative disease beyond the MC. Estimated rates of recurrence-free survival at 5 years were 61.8% for all patients and 53.8% for patients with initial beyond-MC status. Independent factors for recurrence beyond-MC status included preoperative disease beyond the MC, the presence of microsatellite or multiple tumours and lymphovascular invasion (all: P < 0.001). A clinical risk score was used to predict survival and the likelihood of recurrence beyond the MC; patients with scores of 0, 1, 2 and 3 had 5- year incidence of recurring beyond-MC of 9.0%, 29.5%, 48.8% and 75.4%, respectively (P < 0.0001).Regardless of initial MC status, at 5 years the majority of patients remained disease-free or experienced recurrence within the MC after LR, and thus were potentially eligible for salvage transplantation (ST). Incorporating clinicopathological parameters into the MC allows for better risk stratification, which improves the selection of patients for ST and identifies patients in need of closer surveillance.

SUBMITTER: Lee SY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4238862 | biostudies-other | 2014 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Predicting recurrence patterns after resection of hepatocellular cancer.

Lee Ser Yee SY Konstantinidis Ioannis T IT Eaton Anne A AA Gönen Mithat M Kingham T Peter TP D'Angelica Michael I MI Allen Peter J PJ Fong Yuman Y DeMatteo Ronald P RP Jarnagin William R WR

HPB : the official journal of the International Hepato Pancreato Biliary Association 20140716 10

<h4>Background</h4>The reliable prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence patterns potentially allows for the prioritization of patients for liver resection (LR) or transplantation.<h4>Objectives</h4>The aim of this study was to analyse clinicopathological factors and preoperative Milan criteria (MC) status in predicting patterns of HCC recurrence.<h4>Methods</h4>During 1992-2012, 320 patients undergoing LR for HCC were categorized preoperatively as being within or beyond the MC, a ...[more]

PMID: 25041404

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Project description:Background and aimsCurrent prediction models for early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after surgical resection remain unsatisfactory. The aim of this study was to develop evolutionary learning-derived prediction models with interpretability using both clinical and radiomic features to predict early recurrence of HCC after surgical resection.MethodsConsecutive 517 HCC patients receiving surgical resection with available contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) images before resection were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were randomly assigned to a training set (n = 362) and a test set (n = 155) in a ratio of 7:3. Tumor segmentation of all CECT images including noncontrast phase, arterial phase, and portal venous phase was manually performed for radiomic feature extraction. A novel evolutionary learning-derived method called genetic algorithm for predicting recurrence after surgery of liver cancer (GARSL) was proposed to design prediction models for early recurrence of HCC within 2 years after surgery.ResultsA total of 143 features, including 26 preoperative clinical features, 5 postoperative pathological features, and 112 radiomic features were used to develop GARSL preoperative and postoperative models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for early recurrence of HCC within 2 years were 0.781 and 0.767, respectively, in the training set, and 0.739 and 0.741, respectively, in the test set. The accuracy of GARSL models derived from the evolutionary learning method was significantly better than models derived from other well-known machine learning methods or the early recurrence after surgery for liver tumor (ERASL) preoperative (AUC = 0.687, p < 0.001 vs. GARSL preoperative) and ERASL postoperative (AUC = 0.688, p < 0.001 vs. GARSL postoperative) models using clinical features only.ConclusionThe GARSL models using both clinical and radiomic features significantly improved the accuracy to predict early recurrence of HCC after surgical resection, which was significantly better than other well-known machine learning-derived models and currently available clinical models.

Project description:BACKGROUND:High-quality randomized controlled trials have demonstrated the benefit of radiotherapy (RT) in patients with radical resected gastric cancer (GC), however, utilization rates of postoperative RT remain remarkably low. Patterns, incidences, and time of recurrence provide biological bases for clinical monitoring of GC patients and guiding potential complementary therapies. Thus, the aim of this study is to understand the location of locoregional recurrence which may allow individualized RT strategies and minimize radiation-related toxic effects. METHODS:A relatively large sample of GC patients in a single institution who had undergone curative D2 resection was retrospectively reviewed and the relevant recurrence patterns were illustrated. Independent recurrence-related risk factors were analyzed by logistic regression analysis. New logistic regression models were further developed to predict the probability of recurrence. RESULTS:Overall, among 776 GC patients who had continuous and complete follow-up data, 300 cases relapsed after curative resection. Lymphovascular invasion, lymph node metastases, and tumor stage were indicators for early recurrence. Peritoneal, regional, local, and distant recurrence initially occurred in 51 (6.6%), 151 (19.4%), 56 (7.2%), and 164 (21.1%) patients, respectively. Among patients with regional recurrence, the most common sites were lymph node stations 16a2, 8, 12, 16b1, and 9. Remnant stomach recurrence was not so prominent that it seemed reasonable to be excluded from an irradiation field for patients with negative surgical/pathologic margins. CONCLUSIONS:For GC patients who underwent radical D2 resection, distant and regional recurrences were still common. Besides, optimizing regional control of lymph nodes outside the D2 dissected area was crucial for rational design of the RT field. Furthermore, the new logistic regression models might act as useful tools to evaluate recurrence risk and determine which patients should receive postoperative chemoradiotherapy.

Project description:ImportanceLate recurrence (more than 2 years) after liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is generally considered as a multicentric tumor or a de novo cancer.ObjectiveTo investigate the risk factors, patterns, and outcomes of late recurrence after curative liver resection for HCC.Design, setting, and participantsThis study was a multicenter retrospective analysis of patients who underwent curative liver resection for HCC at 6 hospitals in China from January 2001 to December 2015. Among 734 patients who were alive and free of recurrence at 2 years after resection, 303 patients developed late recurrence. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to February 2018.InterventionsLiver resection for HCC.Main outcomes and measuresRisk factors of late recurrence as well as patterns, treatments, and long-term outcomes of patients with late recurrence. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors of late recurrence.ResultsOf the included 734 patients, 652 (88.8%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 51.0 (10.3) years. At a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 78.0 (52.8-112.5) months, 303 patients (41.3%) developed late recurrence. Multivariate analysis revealed that male sex, cirrhosis, multiple tumors, satellite nodules, tumor size greater than 5 cm, and macroscopic and microscopic vascular invasion were independent risk factors of late recurrence. Of the 303 patients with late recurrence, 273 (90.1%) had only intrahepatic recurrence, 30 (9.9%) had both intrahepatic and extrahepatic recurrence, and none had only extrahepatic recurrence. Potentially curative treatments were given to 165 of 303 patients (54.5%) with late recurrence, which included reresection, transplant, and local ablation. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that regular surveillance for postoperative recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 0.470; 95% CI, 0.310-0.713; P = .001), cirrhosis (HR, 1.381; 95% CI, 1.049-1.854; P = .02), portal hypertension (HR, 2.424; 95% CI, 1.644-3.574; P < .001), Child-Pugh grade of B or C (HR, 1.376; 95% CI, 1.153-1.674; P < .001), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B (HR, 1.304; 95% CI, 1.007-1.708; P = .04) and stage C (HR, 2.037; 95% CI, 1.583-2.842; P < .001), and potentially curative treatment (HR, 0.443; 95% CI, 0.297-0.661; P < .001) were independent predictors of overall survival for patients with late recurrence.Conclusions and relevanceLate recurrence after HCC resection was associated with sex, cirrhosis, and several aggressive tumor characteristics of the initial HCC. The patterns of late recurrence suggested surveillance for recurrence after 2 years of surgery should be targeted to the liver. Postoperative surveillance improved the chance of potentially curative treatments, with improved survival outcomes in patients with late recurrence.

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Predicting recurrence patterns after resection of hepatocellular cancer.

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Predicting recurrence patterns after resection of hepatocellular cancer.

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