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Time-Dependent Predictors of Loss to Follow-Up in a Large HIV Treatment Cohort in Nigeria.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Most evaluations of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment programs focus on baseline predictors, prior to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. As risk of LTFU is a continuous issue, the aim of this evaluation was to augment existing information with further examination of time-dependent predictors of loss. METHODS: This was a retrospective evaluation of data collected between 2004 and 2012 by the Harvard School of Public Health and the AIDS Prevention Initiative in Nigeria as part of PEPFAR-funded program in Nigeria. We used multivariate modeling methods to examine associations between CD4(+) cell counts, viral load, and early adherence patterns with LTFU, defined as no refills collected for at least 2 months since the last scheduled appointment. RESULTS: Of 51 953 patients initiated on ART between 2004 and 2011, 14 626 (28%) were LTFU by 2012. Factors associated with increased risk for LTFU were young age, having nonincome-generating occupations or no education, being unmarried, World Health Organization (WHO) stage, having a detectable viral load, and lower CD4(+) cell counts. In a subset analysis, adherence patterns during the first 3 months of ART were associated with risk of LTFU by month 12. CONCLUSIONS: In settings with limited resources, early adherence patterns, as well as CD4(+) cell counts and unsuppressed viral load, at any time point in treatment are predictive of loss and serve as effective markers for developing targeted interventions to reduce rates of attrition.

SUBMITTER: Meloni ST

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4281819 | biostudies-other | 2014 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Time-Dependent Predictors of Loss to Follow-Up in a Large HIV Treatment Cohort in Nigeria.

Meloni Seema Thakore ST Chang Charlotte C Chaplin Beth B Rawizza Holly H Jolayemi Oluwatoyin O Banigbe Bolanle B Okonkwo Prosper P Kanki Phyllis P

Open forum infectious diseases 20140806 2

<h4>Background</h4>Most evaluations of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment programs focus on baseline predictors, prior to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. As risk of LTFU is a continuous issue, the aim of this evaluation was to augment existing information with further examination of time-dependent predictors of loss.<h4>Methods</h4>This was a retrospective evaluation of data collected between 2004 and 2012 by the Harvard School of Public Health and ...[more]

PMID: 25734125

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Project description:Despite progress on population-level HIV viral suppression, unknown outcomes amongst people who have initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries, commonly referred to as loss to follow-up (LTFU), remains a barrier. The mean global estimate of LTFU is 20%, exceeding the World Health Organization target of <15%. Pervasive predictors associated with LTFU include younger age, low body mass index, low CD4 count, advanced HIV clinical stage and certain ART regimens. In Namibia, ART use by eligible individuals exceeds 85%, surpassing the global average. Nonetheless, LTFU remains a barrier to achieving viral suppression and requires research to elucidate context-specific factors. An observational cohort study was conducted in Namibia in 2012 by administering surveys to individuals who presented for HIV care and initiated ART for the first time. Additional data were collected from routine medical data monitoring systems. Participants classified as LTFU at 12 months were traced to confirm their status. Predictors of LTFU were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. Of those who presented consecutively to initiate ART, 524 were identified as eligible to enroll in the study, 497 enrolled, and 474 completed the baseline questionnaire. The cohort had mean age 36 years, 39% were male, mean CD4 cell count 222 cells/mm3, 17% were WHO HIV clinical stage III-IV, and 14% started efavirenz-based regimens. Tracing participants classified as LTFU yielded a re-categorization from 27.8% (n = 132) to 14.3% (n = 68) LTFU. In the final multivariable model, factors associated with confirmed LTFU status were: younger age (OR 0.97, 95% CI 1.00-1.06, p = 0.02); male sex (OR 2.34, CI 1.34-4.06, p = 0.003); difficulty leaving work or home to attend clinic (OR 2.55, CI 1.40-4.65, p = 0.002); and baseline efavirenz-based regimen (OR 2.35, CI 1.22-4.51, p = 0.01). Interventions to reduce LTFU should therefore target young men, particularly those who report difficulty leaving work or home to attend clinic and are on an efavirenz-based regimen.

Project description:BackgroundDespite the rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy services, 'loss to follow-up' is a significant public health concern globally. Loss to follow-up of individuals from ART has a countless negative impact on the treatment outcomes. There is, however, limited information about the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up in our study area. Thus, this study aimed to determine the incidence rate and predictors of loss to follow-up among adult HIV patients on ART.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was undertaken using 484 HIV patients between January 30, 2008, and January 26, 2018, at Debre Markos Referral Hospital. All eligible HIV patients who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in this study. Data were entered into Epi-data Version 4.2 and analyzed using STATATM Version 14.0 software. The Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard estimator was used to estimate the hazard rate of loss to follow-up, and the log-rank test was used to compare the survival curve between different categorical variables. Both bivariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard regression models were fitted to identify predictors of LTFU.ResultsAmong a cohort of 484 HIV patients at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, 84 (17.36%) were loss their ART follow-up. The overall incidence rate of loss to follow-up was 3.7 (95% CI 3.0, 5.0) per 100 adult-years. The total LTFU free time of the participants was 2294.8 person-years. In multivariable Cox-regression analysis, WHO stage IV (AHR 2.8; 95% CI 1.2, 6.2), having no cell phone (AHR 1.9; 95% CI 1.1, 3.4), and rural residence (AHR 0.6; 95% CI 0.37, 0.99) were significant predictors of loss to follow-up.ConclusionThe incidence of loss to ART follow-up in this study was low. Having no cell phone and WHO clinical stage IV were causative predictors, and rural residence was the only protective factor of loss to follow-up. Therefore, available intervention modalities should be strengthened to mitigate loss to follow-up by addressing the identified risk factors.

Project description:BackgroundLoss to follow-up (LTFU) from tuberculosis (TB) treatment and care is a major public health problem as patients can be infectious and also may develop a multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB). The study aimed to assess whether LTFU differs by the distance TB patients travelled to receive care from the nearest health facility.MethodsA total of 402 patient cards of TB patients who received care were reviewed from March 1-30, 2020. The Kaplan-Meir curve with the Log-rank test was used to compare differences in LTFU by the distance travelled to reach to the nearest health facility for TB care. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to identify predictors. All statistical tests are declared significant at a p-value< 0.05.ResultsA total of 37 patients were LTFU with the incidence rate of 11.26 per 1000 person-months of observations (PMOs) (95% CI: 8.15-15.53). The incidence rate ratio was 12.19 (95% CI: 5.01-35.73) among the groups compared (those who travelled 10 km or more versus those who travelled less than 10 km). Age ≥ 45 years (aHR = 7.71, 95% CI: 1.72, 34.50), educational status (primary schooling, aHR = 3.54, 95% CI: 1.49, 8.40; secondary schooling, aHR = 2.75, 95% CI: 1.08, 7.03), lack of family support (aHR = 2.80, 95% CI: 1.27, 6.19), nutritional support (aHR = 3.40, 95% CI:1.68, 6.89), ≥ 10 km distance to travel to a health facility (aHR = 6.06, 95% CI: 2.33, 15.81) had significantly predicted LTFU from TB treatment and care.ConclusionsLTFU from adult TB care and treatment was 12 times higher among those who travelled ≥10 km to reach a health facility compared to those who travelled less. To retain adult TB patients in care and ensure appropriate treatment, health professionals and other stakeholders should give due attention to the factors that drive LTFU. We suggest identifying concerns of older patients at admission and those who travel long distance and establish social support platforms that could help people to complete TB treatment.

Project description:BackgroundThe cross-sectional HIV care continuum is widely used to assess the success of HIV care programmes among populations of people with HIV and the potential for ongoing transmission. We aimed to investigate whether a longitudinal continuum, which incorporates loss to follow-up and mortality, might provide further insights about the performance of care programmes.MethodsIn this longitudinal cohort study, we included individuals who entered the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) study between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2004, and were linked to the national HIV cohort database (HIV and AIDS Reporting System). For each month during a 10 year follow up period, we classified individuals into one of ten distinct categories according to engagement in care, antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, viral suppression, loss to cohort follow-up and loss to care, and mortality, and assessed the proportion of person-months of follow-up spent in each stage of the continuum. 5 year longitudinal continuums were also constructed for three separate cohorts (baseline years of entry 2000-03, 2004-07, and 2008-09) to compare changes over time.FindingsWe included 12 811 people contributing 1 537 320 person-months in our analysis. During 10 years of follow-up, individuals spent 811 057 (52·8%) of 1 537 320 person-months on ART. Of the 811 057 person-months spent on ART, individuals had a viral load of 200 copies per mL or less for 607 185 (74·9%) person-months. 10 years after cohort entry, 3612 (28·1%) of 12 811 individuals were lost to follow-up, 954 (26·4%) of whom had transferred to a non-CHIC UK clinic for care. By 10 years, 759 (5·9%) of 12 811 participants who entered the cohort had died. Loss to follow-up decreased and the proportion of person-months that individuals spent virally suppressed increased over calendar time.InterpretationLoss to follow-up in HIV care programmes was high and rates of viral suppression were lower than previously reported. Complementary information provided by a longitudinal continuum might highlight areas for intervention along the HIV care pathway, however, transfers outside the cohort must be accounted for.FundingMedical Research Council, UK.

Dataset Information

Time-Dependent Predictors of Loss to Follow-Up in a Large HIV Treatment Cohort in Nigeria.

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Time-Dependent Predictors of Loss to Follow-Up in a Large HIV Treatment Cohort in Nigeria.

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