Dataset Information

The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields.

ABSTRACT: Europe has experienced a stagnation of some crop yields since the early 1990s as well as statistically significant warming during the growing season. Although it has been argued that these two are causally connected, no previous studies have formally attributed long-term yield trends to a changing climate. Here, we present two statistical tests based on the distinctive spatial pattern of climate change impacts and adaptation, and explore their power under a range of parameter values. We show that statistical power for the identification of climate change impacts is high in many settings, but that power for identifying adaptation is almost always low. Applying these tests to European agriculture, we find evidence that long-term temperature and precipitation trends since 1989 have reduced continent-wide wheat and barley yields by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively, and have slightly increased maize and sugar beet yields. These averages disguise large heterogeneity across the continent, with regions around the Mediterranean experiencing significant adverse impacts on most crops. This result means that climate trends can account for ? 10% of the stagnation in European wheat and barley yields, with likely explanations for the remainder including changes in agriculture and environmental policies.

SUBMITTER: Moore FC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4352830 | biostudies-other | 2015 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields.

Moore Frances C FC Lobell David B DB

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20150217 9

Europe has experienced a stagnation of some crop yields since the early 1990s as well as statistically significant warming during the growing season. Although it has been argued that these two are causally connected, no previous studies have formally attributed long-term yield trends to a changing climate. Here, we present two statistical tests based on the distinctive spatial pattern of climate change impacts and adaptation, and explore their power under a range of parameter values. We show tha ...[more]

PMID: 25691735

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Project description:Soil labile C and N fractions can change rapidly in response to management practices compared to non-labile fractions. High variability in soil properties in the field, however, results in nonresponse to management practices on these parameters. We evaluated the effects of residue placement (surface application [or simulated no-tillage] and incorporation into the soil [or simulated conventional tillage]) and crop types (spring wheat [Triticum aestivum L.], pea [Pisum sativum L.], and fallow) on crop yields and soil C and N fractions at the 0-20 cm depth within a crop growing season in the greenhouse and the field. Soil C and N fractions were soil organic C (SOC), total N (STN), particulate organic C and N (POC and PON), microbial biomass C and N (MBC and MBN), potential C and N mineralization (PCM and PNM), NH4-N, and NO3-N concentrations. Yields of both wheat and pea varied with residue placement in the greenhouse as well as in the field. In the greenhouse, SOC, PCM, STN, MBN, and NH4-N concentrations were greater in surface placement than incorporation of residue and greater under wheat than pea or fallow. In the field, MBN and NH4-N concentrations were greater in no-tillage than conventional tillage, but the trend reversed for NO3-N. The PNM was greater under pea or fallow than wheat in the greenhouse and the field. Average SOC, POC, MBC, PON, PNM, MBN, and NO3-N concentrations across treatments were higher, but STN, PCM and NH4-N concentrations were lower in the greenhouse than the field. The coefficient of variation for soil parameters ranged from 2.6 to 15.9% in the greenhouse and 8.0 to 36.7% in the field. Although crop yields varied, most soil C and N fractions were greater in surface placement than incorporation of residue and greater under wheat than pea or fallow in the greenhouse than the field within a crop growing season. Short-term management effect on soil C and N fractions were readily obtained with reduced variability under controlled soil and environmental conditions in the greenhouse compared to the field. Changes occurred more in soil labile than non-labile C and N fractions in the greenhouse than the field.

Dataset Information

The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields.

Publications

The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields.

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