Developing R&D portfolio business validity simulation model and system.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yeo HJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4393916 | biostudies-other | 2015
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Background: Funding for neglected disease product development fell from 2009-2015, other than a brief injection of Ebola funding. One impediment to mobilizing resources is a lack of information on product candidates, the estimated costs to move them through the pipeline, and the likelihood of specific launches. This study aimed to help fill these information gaps. Methods: We conducted a pipeline portfolio review to identify current candidates for 35 neglected diseases. Using an adapted version of the Portfolio to Impact financial modelling tool, we estimated the costs to move these candidates through the pipeline over the next decade and the likely launches. Since the current pipeline is unlikely to yield several critical products, we estimated the costs to develop a set of priority "missing" products. Results: We found 685 neglected disease product candidates as of August 31, 2017; 538 candidates met inclusion criteria for input into the model. It would cost about $16.3 billion (range $13.4-19.8B) to move these candidates through the pipeline, with three-quarters of the costs incurred in the first 5 years, resulting in about 128 (89-160) expected product launches. Based on the current pipeline, there would be few launches of complex new chemical entities; launches of highly efficacious HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria vaccines would be unlikely. Estimated additional costs to launch one of each of 18 key missing products are $13.6B assuming lowest product complexity or $21.8B assuming highest complexity ($8.1B-36.6B). Over the next 5 years, total estimated costs to move current candidates through the pipeline and develop these 18 missing products would be around $4.5B (low complexity missing products) or $5.8B/year (high complexity missing products). Conclusions: Since current annual global spending on product development is about $3B, this study suggests the annual funding gap over the next 5 years is at least $1.5-2.8B.
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Project description:The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.
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Project description:BackgroundPurchasers can play an important role in eliminating racial and ethnic disparities in health care. A need exists to develop a compelling "business case" from the employer perspective to put, and keep, the issue of racial/ethnic disparities in health care on the quality improvement agenda for health plans and providers.MethodsTo illustrate a method for calculating an employer business case for disparity reduction and to compare the business case in two clinical areas, we conducted analyses of the direct (medical care costs paid by employers) and indirect (absenteeism, productivity) effects of eliminating known racial/ethnic disparities in mammography screening and appropriate medication use for patients with asthma. We used Markov simulation models to estimate the consequences, for defined populations of African-American employees or health plan members, of a 10% increase in HEDIS mammography rates or a 10% increase in appropriate medication use among either adults or children/adolescents with asthma.ResultsThe savings per employed African-American woman aged 50-65 associated with a 10% increase in HEDIS mammography rate, from direct medical expenses and indirect costs (absenteeism, productivity) combined, was $50. The findings for asthma were more favorable from an employer point of view at approximately $1,660 per person if raising medication adherence rates in African-American employees or dependents by 10%.ConclusionsFor the employer business case, both clinical scenarios modeled showed positive results. There is a greater potential financial gain related to eliminating a disparity in asthma medications than there is for eliminating a disparity in mammography rates.
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Project description:IntroductionThe Portfolio Diet combines cholesterol-lowering plant foods for the management of cardiovascular disease risk. However, the translation of this dietary approach into clinical practice necessitates a user-friendly method for patients to autonomously monitor their adherence.ObjectiveThis study aimed to develop and validate the clinical-Portfolio Diet Score (c-PDS) as a food-based metric to facilitate self-tracking of the Portfolio Diet.MethodsUsing a simulation model to estimate the c-PDS, the validity was assessed in a secondary analysis of a completed trial of the Portfolio Diet in 98 participants with hyperlipidemia over 6 months. Concurrent and predictive validity of the estimated c-PDS were assessed against the reference measure (weighed 7-day diet records) and concomitant changes in LDL-C from baseline to 6 months. Bland-Altman analysis was used to assess the limits of agreement between the two methods.ResultsThe c-PDS was positively correlated with dietary adherence as measured using the 7-day diet records (r = 0.94, p < 0.001). The c-PDS was negatively correlated with change in LDL-C (r = -0.43, p < 0.001) with a 1-point increase in the c-PDS being associated with a - 0.04 mmol/L (CI:-0.06,-0.03; p < 0.001) or a 1.09% reduction in LDL-C. Visual evaluation of the Bland-Altman plots showed reasonable agreement.ConclusionThese findings indicate good validity of the c-PDS for primary prevention in adults with hyperlipidemia. The predictive validity findings have informed the goals and messaging within the PortfolioDiet.app, a digital health application for delivering the Portfolio Diet. Future research will assess the effectiveness of the intended combination of the c-PDS and the PortfolioDiet.app in supporting behavior change.
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Project description:We propose a dynamic model for systemic risk using a bipartite network of banks and assets in which the weight of links and node attributes vary over time. Using market data and bank asset holdings, we are able to estimate a single parameter as an indicator of the stability of the financial system. We apply the model to the European sovereign debt crisis and observe that the results closely match real-world events (e.g., the high risk of Greek sovereign bonds and the distress of Greek banks). Our model could become complementary to existing stress tests, incorporating the contribution of interconnectivity of the banks to systemic risk in time-dependent networks. Additionally, we propose an institutional systemic importance ranking, BankRank, for the financial institutions analyzed in this study to assess the contribution of individual banks to the overall systemic risk.
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Project description:Businesses must respond to the ecology in which they operate. Especially the rapid transformation of technology has increased the degree of dependency on the system. The main reason for this is perceived only as the technology costs brought by digital transformation. However, we understand from the bankruptcy of economically strong companies that this is not the real problem. This study looks at it from the perspective of leadership, which is an important skill for businesses. The research focuses on leadership roles needed to adapt to digital transformation. At this point, the roles of digital leadership and its contribution to businesses were investigated. At this point, we try to reveal the role of digital leadership with two different qualitative analyzes. In the research, semi-structured interviews were conducted with senior managers, phenomenological and content analysis was performed using Nvivo and MAXQDA qualitative analysis programs, and relevant confidential information was revealed. As a result of the research, it has been determined that there is an important link between time management and productivity while supporting system efficiency and transformation adaptation. In other words, a positive relationship has been determined between the success of digital transformation and digital leadership roles. In digital transformation, digital leadership has a role in the positive development of the relationship between the digital transformation process and business strategies. As a result, a perspective on how digital leadership can contribute to businesses that want to develop strategies suitable for the digital transformation process is presented.
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Project description:PurposeSimulation training allows trainees to gain experience in a safe environment. Computer simulation and animal models to practice a Lichtenstein open inguinal hernia repair (LOIHR) are available; however, a low-cost model is not. We constructed an inexpensive model using fabric, felt, and yarn that simulates the anatomy and hazards of the LOIHR. This study examined the fidelity, and perceived usefulness of our developed simulation model by surgical residents and expert surgeons.MethodsA total of 66 Dutch surgical residents and ten international expert surgeons were included. All participants viewed a video-demonstration of LOIHR on the simulation model and subsequently performed the surgery themselves on the model. Afterward, they assessed the model by rating 13 statements concerning its fidelity (six model, three equipment, and four psychological) and six usefulness statements on a five-point Likert scale. One-sample Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare to the neutral value of 3.ResultsThe fidelity was assessed as being high by residents [model 4.00 (3.00-4.00), equipment 4.00 (3.00-4.00), psychological 4.00 (3.00-4.00); all p's < 0.001] and by expert surgeons [model 4.00 (3.00-4.00), p = 0.025; equipment 4.00 (3.00-5.00), p < 0.001; psychological 4.00 (3.00-4.00), p = 0.053]. The usefulness was rated high by residents and experts, especially the usefulness for training of residents [residents 4.00 (4.00-5.00), p < 0.001; experts 4.50 (3.75-5.00), p = 0.015].ConclusionOur developed Lichtenstein open inguinal hernia repair simulation model was assessed by surgical residents and expert surgeons as a model with high fidelity and high potential usefulness, especially for the training of surgical residents.
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