Correction: "hand down, man down." analysis of defensive adjustments in response to the hot hand in basketball using novel defense metrics.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Csapo P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4395350 | biostudies-other | 2015
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:PurposeWe analyzed the interaction between offensive (i.e. space creation dynamics--SCDs) and defensive (i.e. space protection dynamics--SPDs) actions in six play outcomes (free shot, contested shot, new SCD, reset, foul, and turnover) in Spanish professional basketball games.MethodData consisted of 1548 SCD-SPD-outcome triples obtained from six play-off games. We used Bayesian methods to compute marginal probabilities of six outcomes following five different SCDs. We also computed probabilities of the six outcomes following the 16 most frequent SCD-SPD combinations.ResultsThe pick action (e.g. pick and roll, pop and pop) was the most prevalent SCD (33%). However, this SCD did not produce the highest probability of a free shot (0.235). The highest probability of a free shot followed the SCD without ball (0.409). The pick was performed not only to attempt scoring but also to initiate offenses, as it produced the highest probability leading to a new SCD (0.403). Additionally, the SPD performed influenced the outcome of the SCD. This reinforces the notion that the opposition (offensive-defensive interaction) should be considered. To the best of our knowledge, in team sports, this is the first study to successfully model the tactical features involved in offense-defense interactions. Our analyses revealed that the high frequency of occurrence of some SCDs may be justified not only by an associated high probability of free shots but also by the possibility of progressively create more space in the defense (i.e. a new SCD as outcome). In the second case, it evidences offensive strategic features of progressive disruption of the defensive system through the concatenation of subsequent offensive actions.
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Project description:Streaks of success have always fascinated people and a lot of research has been conducted to identify whether the "hot hand" effect is real. While sports have provided an appropriate platform for studying this phenomenon, the majority of existing literature examines scenarios in a vacuum with results that might or might not be applicable in the wild. In this study, we build on the existing literature and develop an appropriate framework to quantify the extent to which success can come in streaks-beyond the stroke of chance-in a natural environment. Considering in-game basketball game situations, our analysis provides statistical evidence that individual players do indeed exhibit the hot hand in varying degrees, that is, individual players can consistently get in a streak of successful shots beyond random chance. However, as a whole, the average player exhibits shooting regression, that is, after consecutive makes he tends to perform below expectations. Even though our results are based on a sports setting, we believe that our study provides a path towards thinking of the hot hand beyond a laboratory-like, controlled environment. This is crucial if we want to use similar results to enhance our decision making and better understand short and long term outcomes of repeated decisions.
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Project description:Building accurate rainfall-runoff models is an integral part of hydrological science and practice. The variety of modeling goals and applications have led to a large suite of evaluation metrics for these models. Yet, hydrologists still put considerable trust into visual judgment, although it is unclear whether such judgment agrees or disagrees with existing quantitative metrics. In this study, we tasked 622 experts to compare and judge more than 14,000 pairs of hydrographs from 13 different models. Our results show that expert opinion broadly agrees with quantitative metrics and results in a clear preference for a Machine Learning model over traditional hydrological models. The expert opinions are, however, subject to significant amounts of inconsistency. Nevertheless, where experts agree, we can predict their opinion purely from quantitative metrics, which indicates that the metrics sufficiently encode human preferences in a small set of numbers. While there remains room for improvement of quantitative metrics, we suggest that the hydrologic community should reinforce their benchmarking efforts and put more trust in these metrics.
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Project description:The impaired vaso- and sudomotor functions limit sweat capacity in individuals with a spinal cord injury (SCI) and might increase the risk for heat-related illness and decreased performance, especially in hot conditions (HOT). This study investigated the differences in fluid balance and thermal responses between wheelchair basketball (WCB) games in HOT and temperate conditions (TMP). Eleven male WCB athletes (39.8 y, 82.8 kg) with SCI (lesion level C5-L4) participated, five in HOT (31 °C) and eight in TMP games (21 °C). Fluid balance, sweat rate, body core temperature, distance, velocity and thermal sensation were assessed. The relative change in body mass was higher in the HOT group (median: -0.35%, interquartile-range: 0.15%, p = 0.02) compared to TMP (+0.11%, 0.35%) group. The sweat rate was significantly higher in the HOT group (0.93 L/h, 0.58 L/h, p = 0.02) compared to the TMP groups (0.48 L/h, 0.19 L/h). Body core temperature increased significantly higher in the TMP group (1.05 °C, 0.15 °C, p = 0.01) compared to the HOT group (0.8 °C, 0.4 °C). The mean velocity (HOT: 1.12 m/s, 0.11 m/s, TMP: 1.07 m/s, 0.08 m/s, p = 0.54) did not differ between the games. The WCB game in HOT leads to significantly higher sweat rate and loss in body mass compared to TMP. Even relative body mass loss was less than 2%. Athletes thus have to be supported with enough fluid, especially during games in HOT.
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Project description:We investigate the predictability and persistence of individual and team performance (hot-hand effect) by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of predictability and hot-hands across the individual performance and the absence of the same in team performance and game outcome. Thus, Cricket is a game of skill for individuals and a game of chance for the teams. Our study contributes to recent historiographical debates concerning the presence of persistence in individual and collective productivity and success. The introduction of several metrics and methods can be useful to test and exploit clustering of performance in the study of human behavior and design of algorithms for predicting success.
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