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Clinical prediction of incident heart failure risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Early treatment may alter progression to overt heart failure (HF) in asymptomatic individuals with stage B HF (SBHF). However, the identification of patients with SBHF is difficult. This systematic review sought to examine the strength of association of clinical factors with incident HF, with the intention of facilitating selection for HF screening. METHODS: Electronic databases were systematically searched for studies reporting risk factors for incident HF. Effect sizes, typically HRs, of each risk variable were extracted. Pooled crude and adjusted HRs with 95% CIs were computed for each risk variable using a random-effects model weighted by inverse variance. RESULTS: Twenty-seven clinical factors were identified to be associated with risk of incident HF in 15 observational studies in unselected community populations which followed 456 850 participants over 4-29 years. The strongest independent associations for incident HF were coronary artery disease (HR=2.94; 95% CI 1.36 to 6.33), diabetes mellitus (HR=2.00; 95% CI 1.68 to 2.38), age (HR (per 10 years)=1.80; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.87) followed by hypertension (HR=1.61; 95% CI 1.33 to 1.96), smoking (HR=1.60; 95% CI 1.45 to 1.77), male gender (HR=1.52; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.87) and body mass index (HR (per 5 kg/m(2))=1.15; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.25). Atrial fibrillation (HR=1.88; 95% CI 1.60 to 2.21), left ventricular hypertrophy (HR=2.46; 95% CI 1.71 to 3.53) and valvular heart disease (HR=1.74; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.84) were also strongly associated with incident HF but were not examined in sufficient papers to provide pooled hazard estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction of incident HF can be calculated from seven common clinical variables. The risk associated with these may guide strategies for the identification of high-risk people who may benefit from further evaluation and intervention.

SUBMITTER: Yang H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4395833 | biostudies-other | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:Importance:Fear of dementia is pervasive in older people with cognitive concerns. Much research is devoted to finding prognostic markers for dementia risk. Studies suggest apathy in older people may be prodromal to dementia and could be a relevant, easily measurable predictor of increased dementia risk. However, evidence is fragmented and methods vary greatly between studies. Objective:To systematically review and quantitatively synthesize the evidence for an association between apathy in dementia-free older individuals and incident dementia. Data Sources:Two reviewers conducted a systematic search of Medline, Embase, and PsychINFO databases. Study Selection:Inclusion criteria were (1) prospective cohort studies, (2) in general populations or memory clinic patients without dementia, (3) with clear definitions of apathy and dementia, and (4) reporting on the association between apathy and incident dementia. Data Extraction and Synthesis:PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines were followed. Data were extracted by 1 reviewer and checked by a second. Main Outcomes and Measures:Main outcomes were pooled crude risk ratios, maximally adjusted reported hazard ratios (HR), and odds ratios (OR) using DerSimonian-Laird random effects models. Results:The mean age of the study populations ranged from 69.2 to 81.9 years (median, 71.6 years) and the percentage of women ranged from 35% to 70% (median, 53%). After screening 2031 titles and abstracts, 16 studies comprising 7365 participants were included. Apathy status was available for 7299 participants. Studies included populations with subjective cognitive concerns (n = 2), mild cognitive impairment (n = 11), cognitive impairment no dementia (n = 1), or mixed cognitive and no cognitive impairment (n = 2). Apathy was present in 1470 of 7299 participants (20.1%). Follow-up ranged from 1.2 to 5.4 years. In studies using validated apathy definitions (n = 12), the combined risk ratio of dementia for patients with apathy was 1.81 (95% CI, 1.32-2.50; I2 = 76%; n = 12), the hazard ratio was 2.39 (95% CI, 1.27-4.51; I2 = 90%; n = 7), and the odds ratio was 17.14 (95% CI, 1.91-154.0; I2 = 60%; n = 2). Subgroup analyses, meta-regression, and individual study results suggested the association between apathy and dementia weakened with increasing follow-up time, age, and cognitive impairment. Meta-regression adjusting for apathy definition and follow-up time explained 95% of heterogeneity in mild cognitive impairment. Conclusions and Relevance:Apathy was associated with an approximately 2-fold increased risk of dementia in memory clinic patients. Moderate publication bias may have inflated some of these estimates. Apathy deserves more attention as a relevant, cheap, noninvasive, and easily measureable marker of increased risk of incident dementia with high clinical relevance, particularly because these vulnerable patients may forgo health care.

Project description:AimsSarcopenia has been found to be frequently associated with co-morbidity among patients with heart failure (HF). However, there remain insufficient data to accurately estimate the global prevalence of sarcopenia in HF. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the current overall prevalence of sarcopenia in patients with HF.Methods and resultsWe searched relevant databases for studies published up to 13 July 2020, assessing sarcopenia in vpatients with HF. After careful screening, data of included articles were extracted with a predesigned Excel form. Then the pooled prevalence of sarcopenia in patients with HF was calculated using the random-effects model. The Q test was used to assess the heterogeneity, and I2 statistic was calculated to quantify and evaluate the heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses were conducted to determine potential sources of heterogeneity. A total of 2852 articles were initially identified, and after removing duplicate publications and applying the selection criteria, we reviewed 79 full-text articles. Finally, 11 articles (n = 1742 patients with HF) were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of sarcopenia in patients with HF was 34% [95% confidence interval (CI): 22-47%, I2 = 96.59%] and ranged from 10% to 69%. However, substantial heterogeneity between studies (I2 = 96.59%, P < 0.001) was observed. There was no significant heterogeneity between subgroups by sex (P = 0.803) or the method used to define sarcopenia (P = 0.307). While the heterogeneity between subgroups by population setting was statistically significant (P < 0.001), the pooled prevalence of sarcopenia was 55% (95% CI: 43-66%) for hospitalized patients with HF and 26% (95% CI: 16-37%) for ambulatory patients.ConclusionsSarcopenia was a common condition in patients with HF, and the prevalence of hospitalized patients was higher than for ambulatory patients. Early detection of sarcopenia was therefore important in patients with HF, and it was important to implement interventions so that physical therapists or managerial dieticians can easily be introduced into clinical practice.

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Clinical prediction of incident heart failure risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

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