Dataset Information

Evaluating risk of ESRD in the urban poor.

ABSTRACT: The capacity of risk prediction to guide management of CKD in underserved health settings is unknown. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 28,779 adults with nondialysis-requiring CKD who received health care in two large safety net health systems during 1996-2009 and were followed for ESRD through September of 2011. We developed and evaluated the performance of ESRD risk prediction models using recently proposed criteria designed to inform population health approaches to disease management: proportion of cases followed and proportion that needs to be followed. Overall, 1730 persons progressed to ESRD during follow-up (median follow-up=6.6 years). ESRD risk for time frames up to 5 years was highly concentrated among relatively few individuals. A predictive model using five common variables (age, sex, race, eGFR, and dipstick proteinuria) performed similarly to more complex models incorporating extensive sociodemographic and clinical data. Using this model, 80% of individuals who eventually developed ESRD were among the 5% of cohort members at the highest estimated risk for ESRD at 1 year. Similarly, a program that followed 8% and 13% of individuals at the highest ESRD risk would have included 80% of those who eventually progressed to ESRD at 3 and 5 years, respectively. In this underserved health setting, a simple five-variable model accurately predicts most cases of ESRD that develop within 5 years. Applying risk prediction using a population health approach may improve CKD surveillance and management of vulnerable groups by directing resources to a small subpopulation at highest risk for progressing to ESRD.

SUBMITTER: Maziarz M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4446879 | biostudies-other | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Evaluating risk of ESRD in the urban poor.

Maziarz Marlena M Black R Anthony RA Fong Christine T CT Himmelfarb Jonathan J Chertow Glenn M GM Hall Yoshio N YN

Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN 20141204 6

The capacity of risk prediction to guide management of CKD in underserved health settings is unknown. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 28,779 adults with nondialysis-requiring CKD who received health care in two large safety net health systems during 1996-2009 and were followed for ESRD through September of 2011. We developed and evaluated the performance of ESRD risk prediction models using recently proposed criteria designed to inform population health approaches to disease managem ...[more]

PMID: 25475746

Similar Datasets

Project description:Disordered mineral metabolism is characteristic of decreased kidney function. However, the prospective associations between circulating levels of vitamin D binding protein, vitamin D, and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have not been extensively evaluated in epidemiologic studies.Nested case-control study.Middle-aged black and white men and women from 4 US communities.Baseline levels of vitamin D binding protein, 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D), and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25[OH]2D) were measured in blood samples collected at study visit 4 (1996-1998) of the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study.ESRD cases (n=184) were identified through hospitalization diagnostic codes from 1996 to 2008 and were frequency matched to controls (n=251) on categories of estimated glomerular filtration rate, albuminuria, diabetes mellitus, sex, and race.Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between mineral metabolism biomarkers (vitamin D binding protein, 25(OH)D, and 1,25(OH)2D) and incident ESRD, adjusting for age, sex, race, estimated glomerular filtration rate, albuminuria, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, education, specimen type, and serum levels of calcium, phosphate, and parathyroid hormone.Higher vitamin D binding protein levels were associated with elevated risk for incident ESRD (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.22-2.54; P=0.003). Higher free and bioavailable 25(OH)D levels were associated with reduced risk for incident ESRD (ORs of 0.65 [95% CI, 0.46-0.92; P=0.02] and 0.63 [95% CI, 0.43-0.91; P=0.02] for free and bioavailable 25[OH]D, respectively). There was no association between ESRD and overall levels of 25(OH)D (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.58-1.19; P=0.3) or 1,25(OH)2D (OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.48-1.13; P=0.2).Lack of direct measurement of free and bioavailable vitamin D.In the general population, blood levels of vitamin D binding protein were positively associated and blood levels of free and bioavailable 25(OH)D were inversely associated with new-onset ESRD during follow-up.

Dataset Information

Evaluating risk of ESRD in the urban poor.

Publications

Evaluating risk of ESRD in the urban poor.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets