Does the cancer drugs fund lead to faster uptake of cost-effective drugs? A time-trend analysis comparing England and Wales.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chamberlain C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4453744 | biostudies-other | 2014 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:ObjectivesTo explore trends in suicide in young people to investigate the recent observation that after year on year rises in the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s, rates in young men are now declining.DesignTime trend analysis.SettingEngland and Wales, 1968-2005. Population Men and women aged 15-34 years.ResultsSince the 1990s, rates of suicide in young men have declined steadily and by 2005 they were at their lowest level for almost 30 years. This decline is partly because of a reduction in poisoning with car exhaust gas as an increased number of cars have catalytic converters; but there have been declines in suicides from all common methods, including hanging, suggesting a more pervasive effect. Other risk factors for suicide, such as unemployment and divorce, have also decreased. Possible recent reductions in alcohol use among young men and increases in prescribing of antidepressants do not seem to be temporally related to the decline in suicide.ConclusionsSuicide rates in young men have declined markedly in the past 10 years in England and Wales. Reductions in key risk factors for suicide, such as unemployment, might be contributing to lower rates.
| S-EPMC2265363 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective To forecast dementia prevalence with a dynamic modelling approach that integrates calendar trends in dementia incidence with those for mortality and cardiovascular disease.Design Modelling study.Setting General adult population of England and Wales.Participants The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) is a representative panel study with six waves of data across 2002-13. Men and women aged 50 or more years, selected randomly, and their cohabiting partners were recruited to the first wave of ELSA (2002-03). 11392 adults participated (response rate 67%). To maintain representativeness, refreshment participants were recruited to the study at subsequent waves. The total analytical sample constituted 17?906 people. Constant objective criteria based on cognitive and functional impairment were used to ascertain dementia cases at each wave.Main outcome measures To estimate calendar trends in dementia incidence, correcting for bias due to loss to follow-up of study participants, a joint model of longitudinal and time-to-event data was fitted to ELSA data. To forecast future dementia prevalence, the probabilistic Markov model IMPACT-BAM (IMPACT-Better Ageing Model) was developed. IMPACT-BAM models transitions of the population aged 35 or more years through states of cardiovascular disease, cognitive and functional impairment, and dementia, to death. It enables prediction of dementia prevalence while accounting for the growing pool of susceptible people as a result of increased life expectancy and the competing effects due to changes in mortality, and incidence of cardiovascular disease.Results In ELSA, dementia incidence was estimated at 14.3 per 1000 person years in men and 17.0/1000 person years in women aged 50 or more in 2010. Dementia incidence declined at a relative rate of 2.7% (95% confidence interval 2.4% to 2.9%) for each year during 2002-13. Using IMPACT-BAM, we estimated there were approximately 767?000 (95% uncertainty interval 735?000 to 797?000) people with dementia in England and Wales in 2016. Despite the decrease in incidence and age specific prevalence, the number of people with dementia is projected to increase to 872?000, 1?092?000, and 1?205?000 in 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively. A sensitivity analysis without the incidence decline gave a much larger projected growth, of more than 1.9 million people with dementia in 2040.Conclusions Age specific dementia incidence is declining. The number of people with dementia in England and Wales is likely to increase by 57% from 2016 to 2040. This increase is mainly driven by improved life expectancy.
| S-EPMC5497174 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLocal government provides Cultural, Environmental, and Planning (CEP) services, such as parks, libraries, and waste collection, that are vital for promoting health and wellbeing. There have been significant changes to the funding of these services over the past decade, most notably due to the UK government's austerity programme. These changes have not affected all places equally. To understand potential impacts on health inequalities, we investigated geographical patterning of recent CEP spending trends.MethodsWe conducted a time trend analysis using routinely available data on local government expenditure. We used generalised estimating equations to determine how expenditure trends varied across 378 local authorities (LAs) in Great Britain between 2009/10 and 2018/19 on the basis of country, deprivation, rurality, and local government structure. We investigated the gross expenditure per capita on CEP services, and the CEP expenditure as a proportion of total local authority budgets. We present the estimated annual percentage change in these spend measures.ResultsExpenditure per capita for CEP services reduced by 36% between 2009/10 and 2018/19. In England, the reduction in per capita spending was steepest in the most deprived quintile of areas, falling by 7.5% [95% CI: 6.0, 8.9] per year, compared to 4.5% [95% CI: 3.3, 5.6] per year in the least deprived quintile. Budget cuts in Scotland and Wales have been more equitable, with similar trends in the most and least deprived areas. Welsh LAs have reduced the proportion of total LA budget spent on CEP services the most (-4.0% per year, 95% CI: -5.0 to -2.9), followed by Scotland (-3.0% per year, 95% CI: -4.2 to -1.7) then England (-1.4% per year, 95% CI: -2.2 to -0.6). In England, rural and unitary LAs reduced their share of spending allocated to CEP more than urban and two-tier structured LAs, respectively.ConclusionFunding for cultural, environmental and planning services provided by local government in the UK has been cut dramatically over the last decade, with clear geographical inequalities. Local areas worst affected have been those with a higher baseline level of deprivation, those with a single-tier local government structure, and English rural local authorities. The inequalities in cuts to these services risk widening geographical inequalities in health and wellbeing.
| S-EPMC9974056 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEngland's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the US' Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) both conduct cost-effectiveness evaluations for new cancer drugs to help payers make drug coverage decisions. However, NICE and ICER assessments have been noted to reach different conclusions. We aim to better understand the degree to which their recommendations diverge and what drives these apparent differences.MethodsWe compared the methods and results of publicly available cost-effectiveness evaluations performed by ICER and NICE of similarly assessed cancer drugs. Assessments were compared based on incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, comparator treatment, price, recommendation, and the design of the economic evaluation.FindingsAmong 11 commonly assessed cancer drugs, ICER and NICE were in concordance for 7 evaluations and in discordance on the cost-effectiveness and coverage decisions for 4 drugs. Most new cancer drugs were not cost-effective in either the US (7/11) or England (7/11). Furthermore, NICE's capacity to negotiate price discounts and access schemes result in much lower cost per QALY valuations and more favourable recommendations than those of ICER for similarly assessed cancer drugs.InterpretationsNICE and ICER employ similar health technology assessment (HTA) methodologies and were aligned with most recommendations, finding that many new and expensive cancer drugs are cost ineffective. Growing use of ICER assessments will continue to send stronger price signals to manufacturers that cancer drugs with low value for money will be viewed less favourably by private insurers. NICE provides an important reminder of how much lower other countries pay for drugs when comparative effectiveness and value-based pricing are integrated into public drug coverage decisions.
| S-EPMC7788430 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveDisease-modifying osteoarthritis drugs (DMOADs) are under development. Our goal was to determine efficacy, toxicity, and cost thresholds under which DMOADs would be a cost-effective knee OA treatment.DesignWe used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model, a validated computer simulation of knee OA, to compare guideline-concordant care to strategies that insert DMOADs into the care sequence. The guideline-concordant care sequence included conservative pain management, corticosteroid injections, total knee replacement (TKR), and revision TKR. Base case DMOAD characteristics included: 50% chance of suspending progression in the first year (resumption rate of 10% thereafter) and 30% pain relief among those with suspended progression; 0.5%/year risk of major toxicity; and costs of $1,000/year. In sensitivity analyses, we varied suspended progression (20-100%), pain relief (10-100%), major toxicity (0.1-2%), and cost ($1,000-$7,000). Outcomes included costs, quality-adjusted life expectancy, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and TKR utilization.ResultsBase case DMOADs added 4.00 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and $230,000 per 100 persons, with an ICER of $57,500/QALY. DMOADs reduced need for TKR by 15%. Cost-effectiveness was most sensitive to likelihoods of suspended progression and pain relief. DMOADs costing $3,000/year achieved ICERs below $100,000/QALY if the likelihoods of suspended progression and pain relief were 20% and 70%. At a cost of $5,000, these ICERs were attained if the likelihoods of suspended progression and pain relief were both 60%.ConclusionsCost, suspended progression, and pain relief are key drivers of value for DMOADs. Plausible combinations of these factors could reduce need for TKR and satisfy commonly cited cost-effectiveness criteria.
| S-EPMC3670115 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Advances in single-cell genomics enable commensurate improvements in methods for uncovering lineage relations among individual cells. Current sequencing based methods for cell lineage analysis depend on low resolution bulk analysis or rely on extensive single cell sequencing which is not scalable and could be biased by functional dependencies. Here we show an integrated biochemical-computational platform for generic single-cell lineage analysis that is retrospective, cost-effective and scalable. It consists of a biochemical-computational pipeline that inputs individual cells, produces targeted single-cell sequencing data and uses it to generate a lineage tree of the input cells. We validated the platform by applying it to cells sampled from an ex vivo grown tree and analyzed its feasibility landscape by computer simulations. We conclude that the platform may serve as a generic tool for lineage analysis and thus pave the way towards large-scale human cell lineage discovery.
2016-04-18 | E-MTAB-4553 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:IntroductionThe Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) is a widely used free, open source and publicly available tool for modelling cycling uptake and corresponding health and carbon impacts in England and Wales. In this paper we present the methods for our new individual-level modelling representing all commuters in England and Wales.MethodsScenario commuter cycling potential in the PCT is modelled as a function of route distance and hilliness between home and work. Our new individual-level approach has allowed us to create an additional "Near Market" scenario where age, gender, ethnicity, car ownership and area level deprivation also affect an individual's likelihood of switching to cycling. For this and other scenarios, we calculate the carbon benefits of cycling uptake based on the trip distance and previous mode, while health benefits are additionally affected by hilliness and baseline average mortality risk. This allows the estimation of how health and carbon benefits differ by demographic group as well as by scenario.ResultsWhile cycle commuting in England and Wales is demographically skewed towards men and white people, women and people from ethnic minorities have greater cycling potential based on route distance and hilliness. Benefits from cycling uptake are distributed differently again. For example, while increasing female cycling mode share is good for equity, each additional female cyclist generates a smaller average health and carbon benefit than a male cyclist. This is based on women's lower baseline mortality risk, shorter commute travel distances, and lower propensity to commute by car than men.ConclusionWe have demonstrated a new approach to modelling that allows for more sophisticated and nuanced assessment of cycling uptake and subsequent benefits, under different scenarios. Health and carbon are increasingly incorporated into appraisal of active travel schemes, valuing important outcomes. However, especially with better representation of demographic factors, this can act as a barrier to equity goals.
| S-EPMC8463831 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC1420714 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsTo evaluate the impact of the 2011 Scottish ban on multi-buy promotions of alcohol in retail stores.Design and settingDifference-in-differences analysis was used to estimate the impact of the ban on the volume of alcohol purchased by Scottish households, compared with those in England and Wales, between January 2010 and June 2012.ParticipantsA total of 22?356 households in Scotland, England and Wales.MeasurementsRecords of alcohol purchasing from each of four categories (beer and cider, wine, spirits and flavoured alcoholic beverages), as well as total volume of pure alcohol purchased.FindingsControlling for general time trends and household heterogeneity, there was no significant effect of the multi-buy ban in Scotland on volume of alcohol purchased either for the whole population or for individual socio-economic groups. There was also no significant effect on those who were large pre-ban purchasers of alcohol. Most multi-buys were for beer and cider or for wine. The frequency of shopping trips involving beer and cider purchases increased by 9.2% following the ban (P?<?0.01), while the number of products purchased on each trip decreased by 8.1% (P?<?0.01). For wine, however, these effects were not significant.ConclusionsBanning multi-buy promotions for alcohol in Scotland did not reduce alcohol purchasing in the short term. Wider regulation of price promotion and price may be needed to achieve this.
| S-EPMC4227589 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:To explore time trends in deaths attributable to work in England and Wales, and identify priorities for prevention, we conducted a proportional analysis of mortality by occupation over a 22-year period. METHODS:Analysis was based on deaths in men aged 20-74 years during 1979-1980 and 1982-2000 with a recorded occupation. Proportional mortality ratios, standardised for age and social class, were calculated for pre-specified combinations of occupation and cause of death, for which excess mortality could reasonably be attributed to work. Differences between observed and expected numbers of deaths by cause and occupation were expressed as annual excess death rates. RESULTS:Mortality attributable to work declined substantially over the period of study, with total excess death rates of 733.2 per year during 1979-1990 and 471.7 per year during 1991-2000. The largest contributing hazards were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumoconiosis in coal miners, pleural cancer from asbestos, and motor vehicle accidents in lorry drivers. In contrast to most other hazards, there was no clear decline in excess mortality attributable to asbestos, or in deaths from sino-nasal cancer associated with exposure to wood dust. CONCLUSIONS:The overall decline in mortality attributable to work is likely to reflect reduced employment in more hazardous occupations, as well as improvements in working conditions. It is imperative to ensure that occupational exposures to asbestos and wood dust are now adequately controlled. Further research is needed on accidents involving lorries with the aim of developing more effective strategies for the prevention of injury.
| S-EPMC3248917 | biostudies-literature