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Space-Time Covariation of Mortality with Temperature: A Systematic Study of Deaths in France, 1968-2009.

ABSTRACT: The temperature-mortality relationship has repeatedly been found, mostly in large cities, to be U/J-shaped, with higher minimum mortality temperature (MMT) at low latitudes being interpreted as indicating human adaptation to climate.Our aim was to partition space with a high-resolution grid to assess the temperature-mortality relationship in a territory with wide climate diversity, over a period with notable climate warming.The 16,487,668 death certificates of persons > 65 years of age who died of natural causes in continental France (1968-2009) were analyzed. A 30-km × 30-km grid was placed over the map of France. Generalized additive model regression was used to assess the temperature-mortality relationship for each grid square, and extract the MMT and the RM25 and RM25/18 (respectively, the ratios of mortality at 25°C/MMT and 25°C/18°C). Three periods were considered: 1968-1981 (P1), 1982-1995 (P2), and 1996-2009 (P3).All temperature-mortality curves computed over the 42-year period were U/J-shaped. MMT and mean summer temperature were strongly correlated. Mean MMT increased from 17.5°C for P1 to 17.8°C for P2 and to 18.2°C for P3 and paralleled the summer temperature increase observed between P1 and P3. The temporal MMT rise was below that expected from the geographic analysis. The RM25/18 ratio of mortality at 25°C versus that at 18°C declined significantly (p = 5 × 10-5) as warming increased: 18% for P1, 16% for P2, and 15% for P3.Results of this spatiotemporal analysis indicated some human adaptation to climate change, even in rural areas.

SUBMITTER: Todd N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4492259 | biostudies-other | 2015 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Space-Time Covariation of Mortality with Temperature: A Systematic Study of Deaths in France, 1968-2009.

Todd Nicolas N Valleron Alain-Jacques AJ

Environmental health perspectives 20150323 7

<h4>Background</h4>The temperature-mortality relationship has repeatedly been found, mostly in large cities, to be U/J-shaped, with higher minimum mortality temperature (MMT) at low latitudes being interpreted as indicating human adaptation to climate.<h4>Objectives</h4>Our aim was to partition space with a high-resolution grid to assess the temperature-mortality relationship in a territory with wide climate diversity, over a period with notable climate warming.<h4>Methods</h4>The 16,487,668 dea ...[more]

PMID: 25803836

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Project description:BackgroundPoisson regression modelling has been widely used to estimate the disease burden attributable to influenza, though not without concerns that some of the excess burden could be due to other causes. This study aims to provide annual estimates of the mortality and hospitalization burden attributable to both seasonal influenza and the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza for Canada, and to discuss issues related to the reliability of these estimates.MethodsWeekly time-series for all-cause mortality and regression models were used to estimate the number of deaths in Canada attributable to influenza from September 1992 to December 2009. To assess their robustness, the annual estimates derived from different parameterizations of the regression model for all-cause mortality were compared. In addition, the association between the annual estimates for mortality and hospitalization by age group, underlying cause of death or primary reason for admission and discharge status is discussed.ResultsThe crude influenza-attributed mortality rate based on all-cause mortality and averaged over 17 influenza seasons prior to the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was 11.3 (95%CI, 10.5 - 12.1) deaths per 100 000 population per year, or an average of 3,500 (95%CI, 3,200 - 3,700) deaths per year attributable to seasonal influenza. The estimated annual rates ranged from undetectable at the ecological level to more than 6000 deaths per year over the three A/Sydney seasons. In comparison, we attributed an estimated 740 deaths (95%CI, 350-1500) to A(H1N1)pdm09. Annual estimates from different model parameterizations were strongly correlated, as were estimates for mortality and morbidity; the higher A(H1N1)pdm09 burden in younger age groups was the most notable exception.InterpretationWith the exception of some of the Serfling models, differences in the ecological estimates of the disease burden attributable to influenza were small in comparison to the variation in disease burden from one season to another.

Dataset Information

Space-Time Covariation of Mortality with Temperature: A Systematic Study of Deaths in France, 1968-2009.

Publications

Space-Time Covariation of Mortality with Temperature: A Systematic Study of Deaths in France, 1968-2009.

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