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Optimizing insecticide allocation strategies based on houses and livestock shelters for visceral leishmaniasis control in Bihar, India.

ABSTRACT: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the most deadly form of the leishmaniasis family of diseases, which affects numerous developing countries. The Indian state of Bihar has the highest prevalence and mortality rate of VL in the world. Insecticide spraying is believed to be an effective vector control program for controlling the spread of VL in Bihar; however, it is expensive and less effective if not implemented systematically. This study develops and analyzes a novel optimization model for VL control in Bihar that identifies an optimal (best possible) allocation of chosen insecticide (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane [DDT] or deltamethrin) based on the sizes of human and cattle populations in the region. The model maximizes the insecticide-induced sandfly death rate in human and cattle dwellings while staying within the current state budget for VL vector control efforts. The model results suggest that deltamethrin might not be a good replacement for DDT because the insecticide-induced sandfly deaths are 3.72 times more in case of DDT even after 90 days post spray. Different insecticide allocation strategies between the two types of sites (houses and cattle sheds) are suggested based on the state VL-control budget and have a direct implication on VL elimination efforts in a resource-limited region.

SUBMITTER: Gorahava KK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4497882 | biostudies-other | 2015 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Optimizing insecticide allocation strategies based on houses and livestock shelters for visceral leishmaniasis control in Bihar, India.

Gorahava Kaushik K KK Rosenberger Jay M JM Mubayi Anuj A

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20150504 1

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the most deadly form of the leishmaniasis family of diseases, which affects numerous developing countries. The Indian state of Bihar has the highest prevalence and mortality rate of VL in the world. Insecticide spraying is believed to be an effective vector control program for controlling the spread of VL in Bihar; however, it is expensive and less effective if not implemented systematically. This study develops and analyzes a novel optimization model for VL contro ...[more]

PMID: 25940194

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Project description:Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease of public health importance in India, with the highest burden of disease in the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. The disease is currently targeted for elimination (annual incidence to less than one per 10,000 population) using indoor residual spraying, active case detection and treatment. Historically the disease trend in India has been regarded as cyclical with case resurgence characteristically occurring every 15 years. Understanding this pattern is essential if the VL elimination gains are to be sustained. To better understand the cyclical trends, annual climatic indicators including rainfall, temperature and humidity over time were compared with annual VL case incidence data. Methods: Annual climate data (rainfall, average and maximum temperature and specific humidity) from 1956-2004 were used to identify potential factors influencing VL incidence. Months relevant to the VL life-cycle were identified and defined (Monsoon, Sand-fly Peak, Pre-Sand-fly Peak and Annual) for analysis. The Kruskall-Wallis test was used to determine significant difference between categorical rainfall and VL incidence, whilst univariate negative binomial regression models were used to determine predictors of disease incidence. Results: The negative binomial regression model showed statistically significant associations (p <0.05) for VL incidence and maximum temperature, and average temperature, when considering annual and pre-sand fly peak time periods. No other associations between humidity, rainfall or temperature and VL incidence were detected (all values p >0.05). Conclusion: The VL programme in Bihar has made significant progress in adopting best practices for improved treatment and vector control, with the aim to achieve VL elimination. However, open access granular programme data for indoor residual spray activities and case detection is required to fully understand the role of climate in disease transmission and potential resurgence.

Project description:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem (< 1 case/10,000 people/year) in the Indian sub-continent (ISC) by 2020. Bihar State in India, which accounts for the majority of cases in the ISC, remains a major target for this elimination effort. However, there is considerable spatial, temporal and sub-population variation in occurrence of the disease and the pathway to care, which is largely unexplored and a threat to achieving the target.Data from 6081 suspected VL patients who reported being clinically diagnosed during 2012-2013 across eight districts in Bihar were analysed. Graphical comparisons and Chi-square tests were used to determine differences in the burden of identified cases by season, district, age and sex. Log-linear regression models were fitted to onset (of symptoms)-to-diagnosis and onset-to-treatment waiting times to estimate their associations with age, sex, district and various socio-economic factors (SEFs). Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with mortality.Comparisons of VL caseloads suggested an annual cycle peaking in January-March. A 17-fold variation in the burden of identified cases across districts and under-representation of young children (0-5 years) relative to age-specific populations in Bihar were observed. Women accounted for a significantly lower proportion of the reported cases than men (41 vs 59%, P?<?0.0001). Age, district of residence, house wall materials, caste, treatment cost, travelling for diagnosis and the number of treatments for symptoms before diagnosis were identified as correlates of waiting times. Mortality was associated with age, district of residence, onset-to-treatment waiting time, treatment duration, cattle ownership and cost of diagnosis.The distribution of VL in Bihar is highly heterogeneous, and reported caseloads and associated mortality vary significantly across different districts, posing different challenges to the elimination campaign. Socio-economic factors are important correlates of these differences, suggesting that elimination will require tailoring to population and sub-population circumstances.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or 'hotspots' of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007-2015. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations' threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1-5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5-86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5-14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of 'the poorest of the poor' and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination.

Project description:BackgroundIn 2010, WHO recommended the use of new short-course treatment regimens in kala-azar elimination efforts for the Indian subcontinent. Although phase 3 studies have shown excellent results, there remains a lack of evidence on a wider treatment population and the safety and effectiveness of these regimens under field conditions.MethodsThis was an open label, prospective, non-randomized, non-comparative, multi-centric trial conducted within public health facilities in two highly endemic districts and a specialist referral centre in Bihar, India. Three treatment regimens were tested: single dose AmBisome (SDA), concomitant miltefosine and paromomycin (Milt+PM), and concomitant AmBisome and miltefosine (AmB+Milt). Patients with complicated disease or significant co-morbidities were treated in the SDA arm. Sample sizes were set at a minimum of 300 per arm, taking into account inter-site variation and an estimated failure risk of 5% with 5% precision. Outcomes of drug effectiveness and safety were measured at 6 months. The trial was prospectively registered with the Clinical Trials Registry India: CTRI/2012/08/002891.ResultsOut of 1,761 patients recruited, 50.6% (n = 891) received SDA, 20.3% (n = 358) AmB+Milt and 29.1% (n = 512) Milt+PM. In the ITT analysis, the final cure rates were SDA 91.4% (95% CI 89.3-93.1), AmB+Milt 88.8% (95% CI 85.1-91.9) and Milt+PM 96.9% (95% CI 95.0-98.2). In the complete case analysis, cure rates were SDA 95.5% (95% CI 93.9-96.8), AmB+Milt 95.5% (95% CI 92.7-97.5) and Milt+PM 99.6% (95% CI 98.6-99.9). All three regimens were safe, with 5 severe adverse events in the SDA arm, two of which were considered to be drug related.ConclusionAll regimens showed acceptable outcomes and safety profiles in a range of patients under field conditions. Phase IV field-based studies, although extremely rare for neglected tropical diseases, are good practice and an important step in validating the results of more restrictive hospital-based studies before widespread implementation, and in this case contributed to national level policy change in India.Trial registrationClinical trial is registered at Clinical trial registry of India (CTRI/2012/08/002891, Registered on 16/08/2012, Trial Registered Prospectively).

Dataset Information

Optimizing insecticide allocation strategies based on houses and livestock shelters for visceral leishmaniasis control in Bihar, India.

Publications

Optimizing insecticide allocation strategies based on houses and livestock shelters for visceral leishmaniasis control in Bihar, India.

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