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Fuzzy Modeling to Predict Severely Depressed Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction following Admission to the Intensive Care Unit Using Clinical Physiology.

ABSTRACT: Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) constitutes an important physiological parameter for the assessment of cardiac function, particularly in the settings of coronary artery disease and heart failure. This study explores the use of routinely and easily acquired variables in the intensive care unit (ICU) to predict severely depressed LVEF following ICU admission. A retrospective study was conducted. We extracted clinical physiological variables derived from ICU monitoring and available within the MIMIC II database and developed a fuzzy model using sequential feature selection and compared it with the conventional logistic regression (LR) model. Maximum predictive performance was observed using easily acquired ICU variables within 6 hours after admission and satisfactory predictive performance was achieved using variables acquired as early as one hour after admission. The fuzzy model is able to predict LVEF ≤ 25% with an AUC of 0.71 ± 0.07, outperforming the LR model, with an AUC of 0.67 ± 0.07. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study predicting severely impaired LVEF using multivariate analysis of routinely collected data in the ICU. We recommend inclusion of these findings into triaged management plans that balance urgency with resources and clinical status, particularly for reducing the time of echocardiographic examination.

SUBMITTER: Pereira RD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4542022 | biostudies-other | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Sepsis-induced cardiomyopathy (SIC) is known to show cardiac dysfunction in patients with sepsis. Both a decrease or an increase in ejection fraction (EF), an indicator of cardiac function, can occur. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with abnormal left ventricular (LV) function measured by EF in patients with sepsis in the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS:This was a retrospective study performed from November 2016 to December 2018. Three-hundred and sixty-six patients (mean age, 73 ± 13 years; 191 [52%] men) admitted to the ICU with sepsis were included. Patients were classified into three categories according to LV EF (group 1 -[EF<50%, n = 36], group 2 -[50?EF<70%, n = 252], and group 3 -[EF?70%, n = 78]). Echocardiographic assessment was performed within 48 hours of diagnosis of sepsis. We analyzed clinical factors including mortality, echocardiographic findings, and laboratory parameters. RESULTS:Decreased LV EF occurred in 36 (10%) patients and hyper-dynamic EF developed in 78 (21%) patients. Of 366 patients, 103 (28%) patients died. Baseline characteristics were similar in the three groups, except female sex an indicator of abnormal EF. Mortality rates were also similar in the three groups; however, mortality rates were significantly higher in patients with abnormal EF (decreased or increased vs. normal). Echocardiographic parameters were significantly different in the three groups, in terms of LV systolic parameters and chamber size. Small left atrium (LA) and small LV were significantly associated with abnormal EF (especially in patients with increased EF). High brain natriuretic peptide was associated with decreased EF. Among these factors, female sex and small LA were significantly associated with abnormal EF in the multiple regression analysis. CONCLUSION:Our findings highlight that female sex and small cardiac size are associated with abnormal EF, and therefore, death. Therefore, female patients and patients with small LA should be monitored closely when they present with sepsis.

Project description:Aims: Evidence-based guidelines for heart failure management depend mainly on current left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, fewer studies have examined the impact of prior LVEF. Patients may enter the heart failure with midrange ejection fraction (HFmrEF) category when heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) deteriorates or heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) improves. In this study, we examined the association between change in LVEF and adverse outcomes. Methods: HFmrEF patients with at least two or more echocardiograms 3 months apart at the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University between September 1, 2015 and November 30, 2019 were identified. According to the prior LVEF, the subjects were divided into improved group (prior LVEF < 40%), stable group (prior LVEF between 40 and 50%), and deteriorated group (prior LVEF ≥ 50%). The primary outcomes were cardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, hospitalization for worsening heart failure, and composite event of all-cause mortality or all-cause hospitalization. Results: A total of 1,168 HFmrEF patients (67.04% male, mean age 63.60 ± 12.18 years) were included. The percentages of improved, stable, and deteriorated group were 310 (26.54%), 334 (28.60%), and 524 (44.86%), respectively. After a period of follow-up, 208 patients (17.81%) died and 500 patients met the composite endpoint. The rates of all-cause mortality were 35 (11.29%), 55 (16.47%), and 118 (22.52%), and the composite outcome was 102 (32.90%), 145 (43.41%), and 253 (48.28%) for the improved, stable, and deteriorated groups, respectively. Cox regression analysis showed that the deterioration group had higher risk of cardiovascular death (HR: 1.707, 95% CI: 1.064-2.739, P = 0.027), all-cause death (HR 1.948, 95% CI 1.335-2.840, P = 0.001), and composite outcome (HR 1.379, 95% CI 1.096-1.736, P = 0.006) compared to the improvement group. The association still remained significant after fully adjusted for both all-cause mortality (HR = 1.899, 95% CI 1.247-2.893, P = 0.003) and composite outcome (HR: 1.324, 95% CI: 1.020-1.718, P = 0.035). Conclusion: HFmrEF patients are heterogeneous with three different subsets identified, each with different outcomes. Strategies for managing HFmrEF should include previously measured LVEF to allow stratification based on direction changes in LVEF to better optimize treatment.

Project description:ImportanceData are lacking on the outcomes of patients with severely reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) who undergo revascularization by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).ObjectiveTo compare the long-term outcomes in patients undergoing revascularization by PCI or CABG.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study performed in Ontario, Canada, from October 1, 2008, and December 31, 2016, included data from Ontario residents between 40 and 84 years of age with LVEFs less than 35% and left anterior descending (LAD), left main, or multivessel coronary artery disease (with or without LAD involvement) who underwent PCI or CABG. Exclusion criteria were concomitant procedures, previous CABG, metastatic cancer, dialysis, CABG and PCI on the same day, and emergency revascularization within 24 hours of a myocardial infarction (MI). Data analysis was performed from June 2, 2018, to December 28, 2018.ExposuresRevascularization by PCI or CABG.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were death from cardiovascular disease, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; defined as stroke, subsequent revascularization, and hospitalization for MI or heart failure), and each of the individual MACE.ResultsA total of 12 113 patients (mean [SD] age, 64.8 (11.0) years for the PCI group and 65.6 [9.7] years for the CABG group; 5084 (72.5%) male for the PCI group and 4229 (82.9%) male for the PCI group) were propensity score matched on 30 baseline characteristics: 2397 patients undergoing PCI and 2397 patients undergoing CABG. The median follow-up was 5.2 years (interquartile range, 5.0-5.3). Patients who received PCI had significantly higher rates of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3-1.7), death from cardiovascular disease (HR 1.4, 95% CI, 1.1-1.6), MACE (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.9-2.2), subsequent revascularization (HR, 3.7; 95% CI, 3.2-4.3), and hospitalization for MI (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.6-3.8) and heart failure (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.6) compared with matched patients who underwent CABG.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, higher rates of mortality and MACE were seen in patients who received PCI compared with those who underwent CABG. The findings may provide insight to physicians who are involved in decision-making for these patients.

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Fuzzy Modeling to Predict Severely Depressed Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction following Admission to the Intensive Care Unit Using Clinical Physiology.

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