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Fuzzy Modeling to Predict Severely Depressed Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction following Admission to the Intensive Care Unit Using Clinical Physiology.

ABSTRACT: Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) constitutes an important physiological parameter for the assessment of cardiac function, particularly in the settings of coronary artery disease and heart failure. This study explores the use of routinely and easily acquired variables in the intensive care unit (ICU) to predict severely depressed LVEF following ICU admission. A retrospective study was conducted. We extracted clinical physiological variables derived from ICU monitoring and available within the MIMIC II database and developed a fuzzy model using sequential feature selection and compared it with the conventional logistic regression (LR) model. Maximum predictive performance was observed using easily acquired ICU variables within 6 hours after admission and satisfactory predictive performance was achieved using variables acquired as early as one hour after admission. The fuzzy model is able to predict LVEF ≤ 25% with an AUC of 0.71 ± 0.07, outperforming the LR model, with an AUC of 0.67 ± 0.07. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study predicting severely impaired LVEF using multivariate analysis of routinely collected data in the ICU. We recommend inclusion of these findings into triaged management plans that balance urgency with resources and clinical status, particularly for reducing the time of echocardiographic examination.

SUBMITTER: Pereira RD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4542022 | biostudies-other | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Sepsis-induced cardiomyopathy (SIC) is known to show cardiac dysfunction in patients with sepsis. Both a decrease or an increase in ejection fraction (EF), an indicator of cardiac function, can occur. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with abnormal left ventricular (LV) function measured by EF in patients with sepsis in the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS:This was a retrospective study performed from November 2016 to December 2018. Three-hundred and sixty-six patients (mean age, 73 ± 13 years; 191 [52%] men) admitted to the ICU with sepsis were included. Patients were classified into three categories according to LV EF (group 1 -[EF<50%, n = 36], group 2 -[50?EF<70%, n = 252], and group 3 -[EF?70%, n = 78]). Echocardiographic assessment was performed within 48 hours of diagnosis of sepsis. We analyzed clinical factors including mortality, echocardiographic findings, and laboratory parameters. RESULTS:Decreased LV EF occurred in 36 (10%) patients and hyper-dynamic EF developed in 78 (21%) patients. Of 366 patients, 103 (28%) patients died. Baseline characteristics were similar in the three groups, except female sex an indicator of abnormal EF. Mortality rates were also similar in the three groups; however, mortality rates were significantly higher in patients with abnormal EF (decreased or increased vs. normal). Echocardiographic parameters were significantly different in the three groups, in terms of LV systolic parameters and chamber size. Small left atrium (LA) and small LV were significantly associated with abnormal EF (especially in patients with increased EF). High brain natriuretic peptide was associated with decreased EF. Among these factors, female sex and small LA were significantly associated with abnormal EF in the multiple regression analysis. CONCLUSION:Our findings highlight that female sex and small cardiac size are associated with abnormal EF, and therefore, death. Therefore, female patients and patients with small LA should be monitored closely when they present with sepsis.

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Fuzzy Modeling to Predict Severely Depressed Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction following Admission to the Intensive Care Unit Using Clinical Physiology.

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