Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Tang J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4550757 | biostudies-other | 2015
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) are highly migratory fish with a contemporary range spanning the North Atlantic Ocean. Bluefin tuna populations have undergone severe decline and the status of the fish within each population remains uncertain. Improved biological knowledge, particularly of natural mortality and rates of mixing of the western (GOM) and eastern (Mediterranean) populations, is key to resolving the current status of the Atlantic bluefin tuna. We evaluated the potential for acoustic tags to yield empirical estimates of mortality and migration rates for long-lived, highly migratory species such as Atlantic bluefin tuna. Bluefin tuna tagged in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) foraging ground (2009-2016) exhibited high detection rates post release, with 91% crossing receiver lines one year post tagging, 61% detected after year two at large, with detections up to ~1700 days post deployment. Acoustic detections per individual fish ranged from 3 to 4759 receptions. A spatially-structured Bayesian mark recapture model was applied to the acoustic detection data for Atlantic bluefin tuna electronically tagged in the GSL to estimate the rate of instantaneous annual natural mortality. We report a median estimate of 0.10 yr-1 for this experiment. Our results demonstrate that acoustic tags can provide vital fisheries independent estimates for life history parameters critical for improving stock assessment models.
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Project description:PurposeDuring gas station operation, unburned fuel can be released to the environment through distribution, delivery, and storage. Due to the toxicity of fuel compounds, setback distances have been implemented to protect the general population. However, these distances treat gasoline sales volume as a categorical variable and only account for the presence of a single gas station and not clusters, which frequently occur. This paper introduces a framework for recommending setback distances for gas station clusters based on estimated lifetime cancer risk from benzene exposure.MethodsUsing the air quality dispersion model AERMOD, we simulated levels of benzene released to the atmosphere from single and clusters of generic gas stations and the associated lifetime cancer risk under meteorological conditions representative of Albany, New York.ResultsCancer risk as a function of distance from gas station(s) and as a continuous function of total sales volume can be estimated from an equation we developed. We found that clusters of gas stations have increased cancer risk compared to a single station because of cumulative emissions from the individual gas stations. For instance, the cancer risk at 40 m for four gas stations each dispensing 1 million gal/year is 9.84 × 10-6 compared to 2.45 × 10-6 for one gas station.ConclusionThe framework we developed for estimating cancer risk from gas station(s) could be adopted by regulatory agencies to make setback distances a function of sales volume and the number of gas stations in a cluster, rather than on a sales volume category.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40201-020-00601-w.
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Project description:ImportanceThe clinical value of current multifactorial algorithms for individualized assessment of dementia risk remains unclear.ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical value associated with 4 widely used dementia risk scores in estimating 10-year dementia risk.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective population-based UK Biobank cohort study assessed 4 dementia risk scores at baseline (2006-2010) and ascertained incident dementia during the following 10 years. Replication with a 20-year follow-up was based on the British Whitehall II study. For both analyses, participants who had no dementia at baseline, had complete data on at least 1 dementia risk score, and were linked to electronic health records from hospitalizations or mortality were included. Data analysis was conducted from July 5, 2022, to April 20, 2023.ExposuresFour existing dementia risk scores: the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE)-Clinical score, the CAIDE-APOE-supplemented score, the Brief Dementia Screening Indicator (BDSI), and the Australian National University Alzheimer Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI).Main outcomes and measuresDementia was ascertained from linked electronic health records. To evaluate how well each score predicted the 10-year risk of dementia, concordance (C) statistics, detection rate, false-positive rate, and the ratio of true to false positives were calculated for each risk score and for a model including age alone.ResultsOf 465 929 UK Biobank participants without dementia at baseline (mean [SD] age, 56.5 [8.1] years; range, 38-73 years; 252 778 [54.3%] female participants), 3421 were diagnosed with dementia at follow-up (7.5 per 10 000 person-years). If the threshold for a positive test result was calibrated to achieve a 5% false-positive rate, all 4 risk scores detected 9% to 16% of incident dementia and therefore missed 84% to 91% (failure rate). The corresponding failure rate was 84% for a model that included age only. For a positive test result calibrated to detect at least half of future incident dementia, the ratio of true to false positives ranged between 1 to 66 (for CAIDE-APOE-supplemented) and 1 to 116 (for ANU-ADRI). For age alone, the ratio was 1 to 43. The C statistic was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.65-0.67) for the CAIDE clinical version, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72-0.73) for the CAIDE-APOE-supplemented, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.67-0.69) for BDSI, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.58-0.60) for ANU-ADRI, and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.79-0.80) for age alone. Similar C statistics were seen for 20-year dementia risk in the Whitehall II study cohort, which included 4865 participants (mean [SD] age, 54.9 [5.9] years; 1342 [27.6%] female participants). In a subgroup analysis of same-aged participants aged 65 (±1) years, discriminatory capacity of risk scores was low (C statistics between 0.52 and 0.60).Conclusions and relevanceIn these cohort studies, individualized assessments of dementia risk using existing risk prediction scores had high error rates. These findings suggest that the scores were of limited value in targeting people for dementia prevention. Further research is needed to develop more accurate algorithms for estimation of dementia risk.
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Project description:Quantitative genetic parameters are nowadays more frequently estimated with restricted maximum likelihood using the 'animal model' than with traditional methods such as parent-offspring regressions. These methods have however rarely been evaluated using equivalent data sets. We compare heritabilities and genetic correlations from animal model and parent-offspring analyses, respectively, using data on eight morphological traits in the great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus). Animal models were run using either mean trait values or individual repeated measurements to be able to separate between effects of including more extended pedigree information and effects of replicated sampling from the same individuals. We show that the inclusion of more pedigree information by the use of mean traits animal models had limited effect on the standard error and magnitude of heritabilities. In contrast, the use of repeated measures animal model generally had a positive effect on the sampling accuracy and resulted in lower heritabilities; the latter due to lower additive variance and higher phenotypic variance. For most trait combinations, both animal model methods gave genetic correlations that were lower than the parent-offspring estimates, whereas the standard errors were lower only for the mean traits animal model. We conclude that differences in heritabilities between the animal model and parent-offspring regressions were mostly due to the inclusion of individual replicates to the animal model rather than the inclusion of more extended pedigree information. Genetic correlations were, on the other hand, primarily affected by the inclusion of more pedigree information. This study is to our knowledge the most comprehensive empirical evaluation of the performance of the animal model in relation to parent-offspring regressions in a wild population. Our conclusions should be valuable for reconciliation of data obtained in earlier studies as well as for future meta-analyses utilizing estimates from both traditional methods and the animal model.
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Project description:BackgroundPolicy decisions regarding climate change mitigation are increasingly incorporating the beneficial and adverse health impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies. Studies of such co-benefits and co-harms involve modeling approaches requiring a range of analytic decisions that affect the model output.ObjectiveOur objective was to assess analytic decisions regarding model framework, structure, choice of parameters, and handling of uncertainty when modeling health co-benefits, and to make recommendations for improvements that could increase policy uptake.MethodsWe describe the assumptions and analytic decisions underlying models of mitigation co-benefits, examining their effects on modeling outputs, and consider tools for quantifying uncertainty.DiscussionThere is considerable variation in approaches to valuation metrics, discounting methods, uncertainty characterization and propagation, and assessment of low-probability/high-impact events. There is also variable inclusion of adverse impacts of mitigation policies, and limited extension of modeling domains to include implementation considerations. Going forward, co-benefits modeling efforts should be carried out in collaboration with policy makers; these efforts should include the full range of positive and negative impacts and critical uncertainties, as well as a range of discount rates, and should explicitly characterize uncertainty. We make recommendations to improve the rigor and consistency of modeling of health co-benefits.ConclusionModeling health co-benefits requires systematic consideration of the suitability of model assumptions, of what should be included and excluded from the model framework, and how uncertainty should be treated. Increased attention to these and other analytic decisions has the potential to increase the policy relevance and application of co-benefits modeling studies, potentially helping policy makers to maximize mitigation potential while simultaneously improving health.
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