Dataset Information

Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). We collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in Southeast Asia, covering ? 10(7) km(2). We detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997-1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001-2002. This synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997-1998 and the strongest El Niño episode of the century. Multiannual dengue cycles (2-5 y) were highly coherent with the Oceanic Niño Index, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. We also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines that were dependent on temperature. This study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across Southeast Asia.

SUBMITTER: van Panhuis WG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4620875 | biostudies-other | 2015 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia.

van Panhuis Willem G WG Choisy Marc M Xiong Xin X Chok Nian Shong NS Akarasewi Pasakorn P Iamsirithaworn Sopon S Lam Sai K SK Chong Chee K CK Lam Fook C FC Phommasak Bounlay B Vongphrachanh Phengta P Bouaphanh Khamphaphongphane K Rekol Huy H Hien Nguyen Tran NT Thai Pham Quang PQ Duong Tran Nhu TN Chuang Jen-Hsiang JH Liu Yu-Lun YL Ng Lee-Ching LC Shi Yuan Y Tayag Enrique A EA Roque Vito G VG Lee Suy Lyndon L LL Jarman Richard G RG Gibbons Robert V RV Velasco John Mark S JM Yoon In-Kyu IK Burke Donald S DS Cummings Derek A T DA

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20151005 42

Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a s ...[more]

PMID: 26438851

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Project description:BackgroundSand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) are medically important vectors of human and veterinary disease-causing agents. Among these, the genus Leishmania (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae), and phleboviruses are of utmost importance. Despite such significance, updated information about sand fly fauna is missing for Balkan countries where both sand flies and autochtonous leishmaniases are historically present and recently re-emerging. Therefore, a review of historical data on sand fly species composition and distribution in the region was followed by a large-scale entomological survey in eight Balkan countries to provide a recent update on local sand fly fauna.MethodsThe literature search involved the period 1910-2019. The entomological survey was conducted at 1189 sampling stations in eight countries (Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia), covering 49 settlements and 358 sampling sites between June and October in the years 2014 and 2016, accumulating 130 sampling days. We performed a total of 1189 trapping nights at these stations using two types of traps (light and CO2 attraction traps) in each location. Sampling was performed with a minimal duration of 6 (Montenegro) and a maximal of 47 days (Serbia) between 0-1000 m.a.s.l. Collected sand flies were morphologically identified.ResultsIn total, 8490 sand fly specimens were collected. Morphological identification showed presence of 14 species belonging to genera Phlebotomus and Sergentomyia. Historical data were critically reviewed and updated with our recent findings. Six species were identified in Bosnia and Herzegovina (2 new records), 5 in Montenegro (2 new records), 5 in Croatia (2 new records), 9 in Bulgaria (5 new records), 11 in North Macedonia (1 new record), 10 in Serbia (no new records), 9 in Kosovo (3 new records) and 4 in Slovenia (no new records).ConclusionsThis study presents results of the first integrated sand fly fauna survey of such scale for the Balkan region, providing first data on sand fly populations for four countries in the study area and presenting new species records for six countries and updated species lists for all surveyed countries. Our findings demonstrate presence of proven and suspected vectors of several Leishmania species.

Dataset Information

Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia.

Publications

Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia.

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