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Choosing experiments to accelerate collective discovery.

ABSTRACT: A scientist's choice of research problem affects his or her personal career trajectory. Scientists' combined choices affect the direction and efficiency of scientific discovery as a whole. In this paper, we infer preferences that shape problem selection from patterns of published findings and then quantify their efficiency. We represent research problems as links between scientific entities in a knowledge network. We then build a generative model of discovery informed by qualitative research on scientific problem selection. We map salient features from this literature to key network properties: an entity's importance corresponds to its degree centrality, and a problem's difficulty corresponds to the network distance it spans. Drawing on millions of papers and patents published over 30 years, we use this model to infer the typical research strategy used to explore chemical relationships in biomedicine. This strategy generates conservative research choices focused on building up knowledge around important molecules. These choices become more conservative over time. The observed strategy is efficient for initial exploration of the network and supports scientific careers that require steady output, but is inefficient for science as a whole. Through supercomputer experiments on a sample of the network, we study thousands of alternatives and identify strategies much more efficient at exploring mature knowledge networks. We find that increased risk-taking and the publication of experimental failures would substantially improve the speed of discovery. We consider institutional shifts in grant making, evaluation, and publication that would help realize these efficiencies.

SUBMITTER: Rzhetsky A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4664375 | biostudies-other | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Modelling and simulation are being increasingly utilized to support the discovery and development of new anti-malarial drugs. These approaches require reliable in vitro data for physicochemical properties, permeability, binding, intrinsic clearance and cytochrome P450 inhibition. This work was conducted to generate an in vitro data toolbox using standardized methods for a set of 45 anti-malarial drugs and to assess changes in physicochemical properties in relation to changing target product and candidate profiles. METHODS:Ionization constants were determined by potentiometric titration and partition coefficients were measured using a shake-flask method. Solubility was assessed in biorelevant media and permeability coefficients and efflux ratios were determined using Caco-2 cell monolayers. Binding to plasma and media proteins was measured using either ultracentrifugation or rapid equilibrium dialysis. Metabolic stability and cytochrome P450 inhibition were assessed using human liver microsomes. Sample analysis was conducted by LC-MS/MS. RESULTS:Both solubility and fraction unbound decreased, and permeability and unbound intrinsic clearance increased, with increasing Log D7.4. In general, development compounds were somewhat more lipophilic than legacy drugs. For many compounds, permeability and protein binding were challenging to assess and both required the use of experimental conditions that minimized the impact of non-specific binding. Intrinsic clearance in human liver microsomes was varied across the data set and several compounds exhibited no measurable substrate loss under the conditions used. Inhibition of cytochrome P450 enzymes was minimal for most compounds. CONCLUSIONS:This is the first data set to describe in vitro properties for 45 legacy and development anti-malarial drugs. The studies identified several practical methodological issues common to many of the more lipophilic compounds and highlighted areas which require more work to customize experimental conditions for compounds being designed to meet the new target product profiles. The dataset will be a valuable tool for malaria researchers aiming to develop PBPK models for the prediction of human PK properties and/or drug-drug interactions. Furthermore, generation of this comprehensive data set within a single laboratory allows direct comparison of properties across a large dataset and evaluation of changing property trends that have occurred over time with changing target product and candidate profiles.

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Choosing experiments to accelerate collective discovery.

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