Prognostic nomogram integrated systemic inflammation score for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma undergoing radical esophagectomy.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Shao Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4686940 | biostudies-other | 2015 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Here, we aimed to identify an immunohistochemical (IHC)-based classifier as a prognostic factor in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). A cohort of 235 patients with ESCC undergoing radical esophagectomy (with complete clinical and pathological information) were enrolled in the study. Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model, we extracted six IHC features associated with progression-free survival (PFS) and then built a classifier in the discovery cohort (n = 141). The prognostic value of this classifier was further confirmed in the validation cohort (n = 94). Additionally, we developed a nomogram integrating the IHC-based classifier to predict the PFS. We used the IHC-based classifier to stratify patients into high- and low-risk groups. In the discovery cohort, 5-year PFS was 22.4% (95% CI: 0.14-0.36) for the high-risk group and 43.3% (95% CI: 0.32-0.58) for the low-risk group (P = 0.00064), and in the validation cohort, 5-year PFS was 20.58% (95% CI: 0.12-0.36) for the high-risk group and 36.43% (95% CI: 0.22-0.60) for the low-risk group (P = 0.0082). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that the IHC-based classifier was an independent prognostic factor for predicting PFS of patients with ESCC. We further developed a nomogram integrating the IHC-based classifier and clinicopathological risk factors (gender, American Joint Committee on Cancer staging, and vascular invasion status) to predict the 3- and 5-year PFS. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated and proved to be clinically useful. Our 6-IHC marker-based classifier is a reliable prognostic tool to facilitate the individual management of patients with ESCC after radical esophagectomy.
| S-EPMC5792740 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:It is widely accepted that the pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an independent predictor of prognosis in multiple malignancies, including esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). However, its predictive value in middle thoracic esophageal carcinoma is still unclear. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the preoperative serum levels of NLR in middle thoracic esophageal carcinoma patients to clarify their clinical significance as predictors of prognosis. Methods:This study investigated 556 patients with middle thoracic ESCC treated by esophagectomy from January 2010 to December 2012. The prognostic impact of serum NLR level was analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to identify the NLR for predicting survival. Correlation between the NLR and clinicopathological characteristics was analyzed by ?2 test. Prognostic influence was calculated by using the Kaplan-Meier method and the difference was compared by log-rank test. Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate the significant prognostic factors. Results:The cutoff value for the NLR was 2.43 ng/mL, the area under the curve was 0.553 (95% CI: 0.504-0.601; P=0.035), and the sensitivity and specificity were 53.3% and 58.7% respectively. It is demonstrated that preoperative NLR (P=0.003), T stage (P<0.001), N stage (P<0.001), surgical approach (P=0.004), and gender (P=0.008) were independent prognostic factors in middle thoracic ESCC by univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that preoperative NLR (P=0.036), T stage (P=0.004), N stage (P<0.001), surgical approach (P=0.002), and age (P=0.019) were independent prognostic factors for survival. Conclusions:Pretreatment NLR >2.43 ng/mL could serve as an indicator of poor prognosis in middle thoracic ESCC patients after surgical treatment.
| S-EPMC7139068 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundChronic inflammation is deemed to play a significant effect on initiation and progression of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). In current study, we investigated the prognostic and predictive role of albumin (Alb) to fibrinogen (Fib) ratio (AFR) and a novel AFR-Alb-derived neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (dNLR) score (ADS) in ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy and compared them with Fib, Alb, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), dNLR, platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR).Materials and methodsA total of 153 clinical confirmed ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy between January 2011 and December 2013 were included in present study. We detected preoperative Alb, Fib and neutrophil, monocyte, lymphocyte and platelet count, and obtained overall survival (OS) by 3 years' follow-up in the cases. X-tile software, Kaplan-Meier curve, Cox regression and predicted nomogram were used to evaluate the predictive and prognostic role of them in ESCC patients.ResultsThe optimal cut-off values of Fib, Alb, AFR, NLR, dNLR, PLR and LMR were 3.2 mg/dL, 38.2 g/L, 9.3, 2.1, 4.3, 145.9 and 2.3, respectively. High levels of Fib [(adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.148, 95% confidential interval (CI) (1.229-3.753)], dNLR (adjusted HR = 2.338, 95% CI 1.626-5.308) and PLR (adjusted HR = 1.964, 95% CI 1.129-3.415) as well as low AFR (adjusted HR = 2.381, 95% CI 1.152-4.926) and Alb (adjusted HR = 2.398, 95% CI 1.342-4.273) were significantly associated with decreased OS in ESCC patients. The survival predictive areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve of AFR, dNLR and Alb were higher than Fib and PLR, respectively. High ADS score was significantly associated with short 3 years' OS of ESCC patients (adjusted HR = 2.94, 95% CI 1.70-5.08). Moreover, OS of ESCC patients receiving adjuvant radio-chemotherapy was longer than those without the treatment in high ADS score subgroup (p = 0.001), however, no significant survival difference was observed in the patients with or without treatment radio-chemotherapy (p = 0.297). Additionally, a significant difference was observed in c-index values of the nomograms including or without ADS (0.720 vs. 0.670, p < 0.05).ConclusionsPreoperative ADS was a prospective biomarker to predict clinical efficacy of adjuvant radio-chemotherapy and clinical prognosis of ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy, and the score could apparently improve predicted efficacy of the nomogram.
| S-EPMC6171189 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeThough postoperative radiation for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is offered in selected cases, there is conflicting evidence as to whether it improves overall survival (OS). A retrospective investigation was performed to analyze the prognostic impact of postoperative radiation therapy (PORT) in a large cohort of patients.MethodsFrom 2001 to 2009, 725 patients underwent radical esophagectomy (R0) with or without PORT were eligible for retrospective analysis. Patients were grouped into surgery alone (n = 467) and surgery plus PORT (n = 258). Median irradiation doses were 50 Gy (range: 40-56 Gy). Radiation fields encompassed the bilateral supraclavicular fossa, mediastinum, subcarinal area, and the tumor bed for the upper/middle-third disease; the bilateral supraclavicular fossa, mediastinum, the tumor bed, subcarinal area, and lower thoracic paraesophageal area for the lower-third disease. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis were used to compare OS.ResultsAfter median follow-up of 53 months, the median OS was 29 months in the PORT group and 23 months in the surgery alone group. The addition of PORT improved OS at 3 years from 36.6 to 43.6% compared with surgery alone. The use of PORT was associated with significantly improved OS (p = 0.018). For American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage III esophageal cancer (T1-2N2M0, T3N1-2M0, T4N1-3M0), there was significant improvement in OS (p = 0.002) in the PORT group, not only for lymph-node metastatic ratio (LNMR) ≥0.25 (p = 0.001), but also for LNMR <0.25 (p = 0.043). However, for stage IIB disease (T1-2N1M0) there was no significant differences. The addition of POCT didn't prolong the OS significantly (Surgery alone group, p = 0.079; PORT group, p = 0.111).ConclusionsThis large retrospective analysis supports the use of PORT for pathologic lymph node positive stage III esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Given the retrospective nature of this study, the results should be confirmed by appropriately powered randomized trials. Further development of adjuvant therapy in EC is warranted.
| S-EPMC3671214 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEsophageal cancer is one of the deadliest malignancies in the world, and 5-year overall survival (OS) of esophageal cancer ranges from 12% to 20%. Surgical resection remains the principal treatment. The American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) TNM (tumor, node, and metastasis) staging system is a key guideline for prognosis and treatment decisions, but it cannot fully predict outcomes. Therefore, targeting the molecular and biological features of each patient's tumor, and identifying key prognostic biomarkers as effective survival predictors and therapeutic targets are highly important to clinicians and patients.MethodsIn this study, three different methods, including Univariate Cox regression, Lasso regression, and Randomforest regression were used to screen the independent factors affecting the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and construct a nomogram prognostic model. The accuracy of the model was verified by comparing with TNM staging system and the reliability of the model was verified by internal cross validation.ResultsPreoperative neutrophil lymphocyte ratio(preNLR), N-stage, p53 level and tumor diameter were selected to construct the new prognostic model. Patients with higher preNLR level, higher N-stage, lower p53 level and larger tumor diameter had worse OS. The results of C-index, Decision Curve Analysis (DCA), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) showed that the new prognostic model has a better prediction than the TNM staging system.ConclusionThe accuracy and reliability of the nomogram prognostic model were higher than that of TNM staging system. It can effectively predict individual OS and provide theoretical basis for clinical decision making.
| S-EPMC10070853 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe adapted systemic inflammation score (aSIS), calculated from serum albumin and the lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, has been reported to be a novel prognostic marker for some types of cancers. However, the prognostic impact of aSIS in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains controversial. This study aimed to examine the prognostic effects of aSIS in a large cohort of 509 ESCC patients.MethodsPreoperative aSIS was retrospectively calculated for 509 ESCC patients who underwent curative resection. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (t-ROC) curves were used for comparing the prognostic impact.ResultsPatients with high aSIS showed significantly poorer overall survival (OS) than patients with low aSIS (log rank P < .001). The multivariate analysis revealed that aSIS was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (multivariate hazard ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.13-2.75; P = .013). The t-ROC analysis showed that aSIS was more sensitive than other nutritional prognostic factors (controlling for nutritional status, systemic inflammation score, and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio).ConclusionPreoperative aSIS may be a useful prognostic biomarker in ESCC patients who underwent curative resection.
| S-EPMC8452479 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMean platelet volume (MPV), as a marker of platelet activity, has been shown to be an efficient prognostic biomarker in several types of cancer. Using MPV, this study aimed to create and validate a prognostic nomogram to the overall survival in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients.MethodsThe nomogram was constructed and tested using data from a retrospective study of 1893 patients who were randomly assigned to the training and testing cohorts with a 7:3 randomization. In order to screen out the optimal predictors for overall survival (OS), we conducted the LASSO-cox regression, univariate, and multivariate cox regression analyses. Subsequently, the predictive accuracy of the nomogram was validated in both the training and the testing cohorts. Finally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to confirm clinical validity.ResultsAge, MPV, nerve invasion, T stage, and N stage were found as independent prognostic variables for OS and were further developed into a nomogram. The nomogram's prediction accuracy for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS was 0.736, 0.749, 0.774, and 0.724, 0.719, 0.704 in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, DCA results indicated that nomograms outperformed the AJCC 8th and conventional T, N staging systems in both the training and testing cohorts.ConclusionsThe nomogram, in conjunction with MPV and standard clinicopathological markers, could improve the accuracy of prediction of OS in ESCC patients.
| S-EPMC10652314 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of serum lipids in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients who underwent esophagectomy. Preoperative serum lipids were collected from 214 patients who were diagnosed with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. All of the patients received esophagectomy in Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January 2007 to December 2008. The records and data were analyzed retrospectively. We found that low total cholesterol (for T stage, p = 0.006; for TNM stage, p = 0.039) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (for T stage, p = 0.031; for TNM stage, p = 0.035) were associated with advanced T stage and TNM stage. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated that low total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were associated with shorter disease-free survival(for total cholesterol, p = 0.045; for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, p < 0.001) and overall survival (for total cholesterol, p = 0.043; for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, p < 0.001). Lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (LHR) indicated poorer disease-free survival and overall survival (both p < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and LHR were independent prognostic factors for disease-free survival and overall survival. In conclusion, our study indicated that preoperative serum total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol are prognostic factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients who underwent esophagectomy. LHR can serve as a promising serum lipids-based prognostic indicator.
| S-EPMC5522301 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundRadical pancreaticoduodenectomy is the most common treatment strategy for patients diagnosed with adenocarcinoma of the pancreatic head. Few studies have reported the clinical characteristics and treatment efficacies of patients undergoing radical pancreaticoduodenectomy for adenocarcinoma of the pancreatic head.MethodsA total of 177 pancreatic head cancer patients who underwent radical pancreaticoduodenectomy and were pathologically confirmed as having pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma were screened in the West China Hospital of Sichuan University. The multivariate analysis results were implemented to construct a nomogram. The concordance index (c-index), the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration were utilized to evaluate the predictive performance of the nomogram.ResultsThe prognostic nutritional index (PNI), the lymph node ratio (LNR) and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging served as independent prognostic factors and were used to construct the nomogram. The c-indexes of the nomogram were 0.799 (confidence interval (CI), 0.741-0.858) and 0.732 (0.657-0.807) in the primary set and validation set, respectively. The AUCs of the nomogram at 1 and 3 years were 0.832 and 0.783, which were superior to the AJCC staging values of 0.759 and 0.705, respectively.ConclusionsThe nomogram may be used to predict the prognosis of radical resection for adenocarcinoma of the pancreatic head. These findings may represent an effective model for the developing an optimal therapeutic schedule for malnourished patients who need early effective nutritional intervention and may promote the treatment efficacy of resectable adenocarcinoma of the pancreatic head.
| S-EPMC8161963 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundImmunoscore, as a prognostic tool defined to quantify in situ immune cell infiltrates, appears to be superior to the TNM staging system. In esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), no immunoscore has been established; however, in situ tumor immunology is recognized as highly important. Our study aimed to construct a comprehensive immunoprofile for ESCC.MethodsThe infiltration of four immune cell types (CD8+/CD4+/Foxp3+/CD33+ cells), the expression of both inhibitory (PD-1/PD-L1/Tim-3/LAG-3) and stimulatory checkpoints (OX-40/ICOS), and IDO1 were evaluated by IHC staining and multi-color immunofluorescence in two independent cohorts (95 patients in the primary cohort and 55 patients in the validation cohort). The association with patients' overall survival was analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox model. Nomogram-based immunoprofile was established using the independent prognostic variables. To determine its predictive accuracy and discriminatory capacity, the C-index and calibration curve were calculated.ResultsSignificant correlation of PD-L1 expression in tumor cells with PD-1+ T cell infiltration was found (P = 0.035), indicating the activation of the inhibitory PD-1/PD-L1 pathway in ESCC cases. More PD-L1+ ICs, Tim-3+ ICs and LAG-3+ ICs were found in the CD8-rich tumor microenvironment, which is in accordance with the feedback nature of immune system. After adjustment by TNM stage, four immune variables including the infiltration of CD8+/Foxp3+/CD33+ cells and the PD-L1 expression by tumor cells were selected to construct a prognostic nomogram. The calibration curves showed good accuracy of the nomogram for survival prediction. To overcome the complexity of applying a nomogram in a clinical setting, a simple immunoprofile was then established according to the points of each factor from the nomogram. Our immunoprofile model could separate same-stage patients into different risk subgroups, and showed superior accuracy for survival prediction than the TNM staging system based on the C-index calculation and ROC analysis.ConclusionsOur nomogram-based immunoprofile can provide more accurate prognosis prediction and is an important complement to the TNM staging system for operable ESCC patients.
| S-EPMC6171172 | biostudies-literature