Ebola epidemic--the Nigerian experience.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Onyeonoro UU
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4695530 | biostudies-other | 2015
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
Publications
Ebola epidemic--the Nigerian experience.
Onyeonoro Ugochukwu Uchenna UU Ekpemiro Uchechi Chukwudike UC Abali Chuku C Nwokeukwu Huldah Ijeoma HI
The Pan African medical journal 20151011
The current West African ebola epidemic has been described as the most unprecedented in the history of the disease. Nigeria reported its first case of the disease in July, 2014, at the end of the epidemic 20 people were infected and eight of them died. The epidemic resulted in increased knowledge of the disease as well as some misconceptions, increase in household and community hygiene practice and change in social interaction between affected individuals and the community. Prompt response by th ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundHealthcare and other front-line workers are at particular risk of infection with Ebola virus (EBOV). Despite the large-scale deployment of international responders, few cases of Ebola virus disease have been diagnosed in this group. Since asymptomatic or pauci-symptomatic infection has been described, it is plausible that infections have occurred in healthcare workers but have escaped being diagnosed. We aimed to assess the prevalence of asymptomatic or pauci-symptomatic infection, and of exposure events, among returned responders to the West African Ebola epidemic 2014-2016.Methods and findingsWe used snowball sampling to identify responders who had returned to the UK or Ireland, and used an online consent and questionnaire to determine their exposure to EBOV and their experience of illness. Oral fluid collection devices were sent and returned by post, and samples were tested using an EBOV IgG capture assay that detects IgG to Ebola glycoprotein. Blood was collected from returnees with reactive samples for further testing. Unexposed UK controls were also recruited. In all, 300 individuals consented, of whom 268 (89.3%) returned an oral fluid sample (OFS). The majority had worked in Sierra Leone in clinical, laboratory, research, and other roles. Fifty-three UK controls consented and provided samples using the same method. Of the returnees, 47 (17.5%) reported that they had had a possible EBOV exposure. Based on their free-text descriptions, using a published risk assessment method, we classified 43 (16%) as having had incidents with risk of Ebola transmission, including five intermediate-risk and one high-risk exposure. Of the returnees, 57 (21%) reported a febrile or diarrhoeal illness in West Africa or within 1 mo of return, of whom 40 (70%) were not tested at the time for EBOV infection. Of the 268 OFSs, 266 were unreactive. Two returnees, who did not experience an illness in West Africa or on return, had OFSs that were reactive on the EBOV IgG capture assay, with similar results on plasma. One individual had no further positive test results; the other had a positive result on a double-antigen bridging assay but not on a competitive assay or on an indirect EBOV IgG ELISA. All 53 controls had non-reactive OFSs. While the participants were not a random sample of returnees, the number participating was high.ConclusionsThis is the first study, to our knowledge, of the prevalence of EBOV infection in international responders. More than 99% had clear negative results. Sera from two individuals had discordant results on the different assays; both were negative on the competitive assay, suggesting that prior infection was unlikely. The finding that a significant proportion experienced "near miss" exposure events, and that most of those who experienced symptoms did not get tested for EBOV at the time, suggests a need to review and standardise protocols for the management of possible exposure to EBOV, and for the management of illness, across organisations that deploy staff to outbreaks.
| S-EPMC5433702 | biostudies-literature
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Project description:Controlling Ebola outbreaks and planning an effective response to future emerging diseases are enhanced by understanding the role of geography in transmission. Here we show how epidemic expansion may be predicted by evaluating the relative probability of alternative epidemic paths. We compared multiple candidate models to characterize the spatial network over which the 2013-2015 West Africa epidemic of Ebola virus spread and estimate the effects of geographical covariates on transmission during peak spread. The best model was a generalized gravity model where the probability of transmission between locations depended on distance, population density and international border closures between Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and neighbouring countries. This model out-performed alternative models based on diffusive spread, the force of infection, mobility estimated from cell phone records and other hypothesized patterns of spread. These findings highlight the importance of integrated geography to epidemic expansion and may contribute to identifying both the most vulnerable unaffected areas and locations of maximum intervention value.
| S-EPMC5108957 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As of November 2015, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that began in West Africa in late 2013 is waning. The human toll includes more than 28,000 EVD cases and 11,000 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the most heavily-affected countries. We reviewed 66 mathematical modeling studies of the EVD epidemic published in the peer-reviewed literature to assess the key uncertainties models addressed, data used for modeling, public sharing of data and results, and model performance. Based on the review, we suggest steps to improve the use of modeling in future public health emergencies.
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Project description:We assess the relationship between epidemic size and the scaling of epidemic growth of Ebola epidemics at the level of administrative areas during the 2014-16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. For this purpose, we quantify growth scaling parameters from the ascending phase of Ebola outbreaks comprising at least 7 weeks of epidemic growth. We then study how these parameters are associated with observed epidemic sizes. For validation purposes, we also analyse two historic Ebola outbreaks. We find a high monotonic association between the scaling of epidemic growth parameter and the observed epidemic size. For example, scaling of growth parameters around 0.3-0.4, 0.4-0.6 and 0.6 are associated with epidemic sizes on the order of 350-460, 460-840 and 840-2500 cases, respectively. These results are not explained by differences in epidemic onset across affected areas. We also find the relationship between the scaling of epidemic growth parameter and the observed epidemic size to be consistent for two past Ebola outbreaks in Congo (1976) and Uganda (2000). Signature features of epidemic growth could become useful to assess the risk of observing a major epidemic outbreak, generate improved diseases forecasts and enhance the predictive power of epidemic models. Our results indicate that the epidemic growth scaling parameter is a useful indicator of epidemic size, which may have significant implications to guide control of Ebola outbreaks and possibly other infectious diseases.
| S-EPMC6518536 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe 2014-2016 Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa was the largest outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in history. Clarifying the influence of other prevalent diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus infection and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) will help improve treatment and supportive care of patients with EVD.Case presentationWe examined HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody prevalence among suspected EVD cases from the Sierra Leone-China Friendship Biological Safety Laboratory during the epidemic in Sierra Leone. HIV and HCV antibodies were tested in 678 EVD-negative samples by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. A high HIV prevalence (17.6%) and low HCV prevalence (0.22%) were observed among the suspected cases. Notably, we found decreased HIV positive rates among the suspected cases over the course of the epidemic. This suggests a potentially beneficial effect of an improved public health system after assistance from the World Health Organization and other international aid organizations.ConclusionsThis EVD epidemic had a considerable impact on the public health system and influenced the prevalence of HIV found among suspected cases in Sierra Leone, but also provided an opportunity to establish a better surveillance network for infectious diseases.
| S-EPMC6398227 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper aims to study the global stability of an Ebola virus epidemic model. Although this epidemic ended in September 2015, it devastated several West African countries and mobilized the international community. With the recent cases of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the threat of the reappearance of this fatal disease remains. Therefore, we are obligated to be prepared for a possible re-emerging of the disease. In this work, we investigate the global stability analysis via the theory of cooperative systems, and we determine the conditions that lead to global stability diseases free and endemic equilibrium.
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Project description:The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.
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Project description:Between 2013 and 2016, West Africa experienced the largest ever outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease. In the absence of registered treatments or vaccines to control this lethal disease, the World Health Organization coordinated and supported research to expedite identification of interventions that could control the outbreak and improve future control efforts. Consequently, the World Health Organization Research Ethics Review Committee (WHO-ERC) was heavily involved in reviews and ethics discussions. It reviewed 24 new and 22 amended protocols for research studies including interventional (drug, vaccine) and observational studies.WHO-ERC provided the reviews within on average 6 working days. The WHO-ERC often could not provide immediate approval of protocols for reasons which were not Ebola Virus Disease specific but related to protocol inconsistencies, missing information and complex informed consents. WHO-ERC considerations on Ebola Virus Disease specific issues (benefit-risk assessment, study design, exclusion of pregnant women and children from interventional studies, data and sample sharing, collaborative partnerships including international and local researchers and communities, community engagement and participant information) are presented.To accelerate study approval in future public health emergencies, we recommend: (1) internally consistent and complete submissions with information documents in language participants are likely to understand, (2) close collaboration between local and international researchers from research inception, (3) generation of template agreements for data and sample sharing and use during the ongoing global consultations on bio-banks, (4) formation of Joint Scientific Advisory and Data Safety Review Committees for all studies linked to a particular intervention or group of interventions, (5) formation of a Joint Ethics Review Committee with representatives of the Ethics Committees of all institutions and countries involved to strengthen reviews through the different perspectives provided without the 'opportunity costs' for time to final approval of multiple, independent reviews, (6) direct information exchange between the chairs of advisory, safety review and ethics committees, (7) more Ethics Committee support for investigators than is standard and (8) a global consultation on criteria for inclusion of pregnant women and children in interventional studies for conditions which put them at particularly high risk of mortality or other irreversible adverse outcomes under standard-of-care.
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Project description:Since Ebola virus disease was identified in West Africa on March 23, 2014, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has undertaken the most intensive response in the agency's history; >3,000 staff have been involved, including >1,200 deployed to West Africa for >50,000 person workdays. Efforts have included supporting incident management systems in affected countries; mobilizing partners; and strengthening laboratory, epidemiology, contact investigation, health care infection control, communication, and border screening in West Africa, Nigeria, Mali, Senegal, and the United States. All efforts were undertaken as part of national and global response activities with many partner organizations. CDC was able to support community, national, and international health and public health staff to prevent an even worse event. The Ebola virus disease epidemic highlights the need to strengthen national and international systems to detect, respond to, and prevent the spread of future health threats.
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