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Estimating mother-to-child HIV transmission rates in Cameroon in 2011: a computer simulation approach.

ABSTRACT: Despite the progress in the Prevention of the Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV (PMTCT), the paediatric HIV epidemic remains worrying in Cameroon. HIV prevalence rate for the population of pregnant women was 7.6% in 2010 in Cameroon. The extent of the paediatric HIV epidemic is needed to inform policymakers. We developed a stochastic simulation model to estimate the number of new paediatric HIV infections through MTCT based on the observed uptake of services during the different steps of the PMTCT cascade in Cameroon in 2011. Different levels of PMTCT uptake was also assessed.A discrete events computer simulation-based approach with stochastic structure was proposed to generate a cohort of pregnant women followed-up until 6 weeks post-partum, and optionally until complete breastfeeding cessation in both prevalent and incident lactating HIV-infected women. The different parameters of the simulation model were fixed using data sources available from the 2011 national registry surveys, and from external cohorts in Cameroon. Different PMTCT coverages were simulated to assess their impact on MTCT. Available data show a low coverage of PMTCT services in Cameroon in 2011.Based on a simulation approach on a population of 995, 533 pregnant women, the overall residual MTCT rate in 2011 was estimated to be 22.1% (95 % CI: 18.6%-25.2%), the 6-week perinatal MTCT rate among prevalent HIV-infected mothers at delivery is estimated at 12.1% (95% CI: 8.1%-15.1%), with an additional postnatal MTCT rate estimated at 13.3% (95% CI: 9.3%-17.8%). The MTCT rate among children whose mothers seroconverted during breastfeeding was estimated at 20.8% (95% CI: 14.1%-26.9%). Overall, we estimated the number of new HIV infections in children in Cameroon to be 10, 403 (95% CI: 9, 054-13, 345) in 2011. When PMTCT uptake have been fixed at 100%, 90% and 80%, global MTCT rate failed to 0.9% (9% CI: 0.5%-1.7%), 2.0% (95% CI: 0.9%-3.2%) and 4.3% (95% CI: 2.4%-6.7%) respectively.This model is helpful to provide MTCT estimates to guide the national HIV policy in Cameroon. Increasing supply and uptake of PMTCT services among prevalent HIV infected pregnant women, as well as HIV-prevention interventions including the offer and acceptance of HIV testing and counselling in lactating women could reduce significantly the residual HIV MTCT in Cameroon. A public health effort should be made to encourage health care workers and pregnant women to use PMTCT services until complete breastfeeding cessation.

SUBMITTER: Nguefack HL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4709976 | biostudies-other | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of Human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) causes lifelong infection. At least 5-10 million individuals worldwide are currently living with HTLV-1. Studies of regional variation are required to better understand the contribution of MTCT to the global burden of infection. Although most infected individuals remain asymptomatic ∼10% develop high morbidity, high mortality disease. Infection early in life is associated with a higher risk of disease development. Adult T-cell leukemia (ATL), which is caused by HTLV-1 and has a median survival of 8 months is linked to MTCT, indeed evidence of ATL following infection as an adult is sparse. Infective dermatitis also only occurs following neonatal infection. Whilst HTLV-1-associated myelopathy (HAM) follows sexual and iatrogenic infection approximately 30% of patients presenting with HAM/TSP acquired the infection through their mothers. HAM/TSP is a disabling neurodegenerative disease that greatly impact patient's quality of life. To date there is no cure for HTLV-1 infection other than bone marrow transplantation for ATL nor any measure to prevent HTLV-1 associated diseases in an infected individual. In this context, prevention of MTCT is expected to contribute disproportionately to reducing both the incidence of HTLV-1 and the burden of HTLV-1 associated diseases. In order to successfully avoid HTLV-1 MTCT, it is important to understand all the variables involved in this route of infection. Questions remain regarding frequency and risk factors for in utero peri-partum transmission whilst little is known about the efficacy of pre-labor cesarean section to reduce these infections. Understanding the contribution of peripartum infection to the burden of disease will be important to gauge the risk-benefit of interventions in this area. Few studies have examined the impact of HTLV-1 infection on fertility or pregnancy outcomes nor the susceptibility of the mother to infection during pregnancy and lactation. Whilst breast-feeding is strongly associated with transmission and avoidance of breast-feeding a proven intervention little is known about the mechanism of transmission from the breast milk to the infant and there have been no clinical trials of antiretroviral therapy (ARV) to prevent this route of transmission.

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Estimating mother-to-child HIV transmission rates in Cameroon in 2011: a computer simulation approach.

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