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The Role of Stage at Diagnosis in Colorectal Cancer Black-White Survival Disparities: A Counterfactual Causal Inference Approach.

ABSTRACT: To date, a counterfactual framework has not been used to study determinants of social inequalities in cancer. Considering the case of colorectal cancer, for which racial/ethnic differences in stage at diagnosis and survival are well documented, we quantify the extent to which black versus white survival disparities would be reduced had disparities in stage at diagnosis been eliminated in a large patient population.We obtained data on colorectal cancer patients (diagnosed between 1992 and 2005 and followed until 2010) from US-SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) cancer registries. We employed a counterfactual approach to estimate the mean survival time up to the 60th month since diagnosis for black colorectal cancer patients had black-white disparities in stage at diagnosis been eliminated.Black patients survive approximately 4.0 [confidence interval (CI), 4.6-3.2] months less than white patients within five years since diagnosis. Had disparities in stage at diagnosis been eliminated, survival disparities decrease to 2.6 (CI, 3.4-1.7) months, an approximately 35% reduction. For patients diagnosed after the age of 65 years, disparities would be halved, while reduction of approximately 30% is estimated for younger patients. Survival disparities would be reduced by approximately 44% for women and approximately 26% for men.Employing a counterfactual approach and allowing for heterogeneities in black-white disparities across patients' characteristics, we give robust evidence that elimination of disparities in stage at diagnosis contributes to a substantial reduction in survival disparities in colorectal cancer.We provide the first evidence in the SEER population that elimination of inequities in stage at diagnosis might lead to larger reductions in survival disparities among elderly and women.

SUBMITTER: Valeri L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4713332 | biostudies-other | 2016 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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The Role of Stage at Diagnosis in Colorectal Cancer Black-White Survival Disparities: A Counterfactual Causal Inference Approach.

Valeri Linda L Chen Jarvis T JT Garcia-Albeniz Xabier X Krieger Nancy N VanderWeele Tyler J TJ Coull Brent A BA

Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology 20151026 1

<h4>Background</h4>To date, a counterfactual framework has not been used to study determinants of social inequalities in cancer. Considering the case of colorectal cancer, for which racial/ethnic differences in stage at diagnosis and survival are well documented, we quantify the extent to which black versus white survival disparities would be reduced had disparities in stage at diagnosis been eliminated in a large patient population.<h4>Methods</h4>We obtained data on colorectal cancer patients ...[more]

PMID: 26503034

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Project description:Treatment switching often has a crucial impact on estimates of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new oncology treatments. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM) and two-stage estimation (TSE) methods estimate 'counterfactual' (i.e. had there been no switching) survival times and incorporate re-censoring to guard against informative censoring in the counterfactual dataset. However, re-censoring causes a loss of longer term survival information which is problematic when estimates of long-term survival effects are required, as is often the case for health technology assessment decision making. We present a simulation study designed to investigate applications of the RPSFTM and TSE with and without re-censoring, to determine whether re-censoring should always be recommended within adjustment analyses. We investigate a context where switching is from the control group onto the experimental treatment in scenarios with varying switch proportions, treatment effect sizes, treatment effect changes over time, survival function shapes, disease severity and switcher prognosis. Methods were assessed according to their estimation of control group restricted mean survival that would be observed in the absence of switching, up to the end of trial follow-up. We found that analyses which re-censored usually produced negative bias (i.e. underestimating control group restricted mean survival and overestimating the treatment effect), whereas analyses that did not re-censor consistently produced positive bias which was often smaller in magnitude than the bias associated with re-censored analyses, particularly when the treatment effect was high and the switching proportion was low. The RPSFTM with re-censoring generally resulted in increased bias compared to the other methods. We believe that analyses should be conducted with and without re-censoring, as this may provide decision-makers with useful information on where the true treatment effect is likely to lie. Incorporating re-censoring should not always represent the default approach when the objective is to estimate long-term survival times and treatment effects.

Project description:BackgroundSmall cell lung cancer (SCLC) is associated with aggressive biology and limited treatment options, making this disease a historical challenge. The influence of race and socioeconomic status on the survival of stage IV SCLC remains mostly unknown. Our study is designed to investigate the clinical survival outcomes in Black and White patients with stage IV SCLC and study the demographic, socioeconomic, clinical features, and treatment patterns of the disease and their impact on survival in Blacks and Whites.Methods and resultsStage IV SCLC cases from the National Cancer Database (NCDB) diagnosed between 2004 and 2014 were obtained. The follow-up endpoint is defined as death or the date of the last contact. Patients were divided into two groups by white and black. Features including demographic, socioeconomic, clinical, treatments and survival outcomes in Blacks and Whites were collected. Mortality hazard ratios of Blacks and Whites stage IV SCLC patients were analyzed. Survival of stage IV SCLC Black and White patients was also analyzed. Adjusted hazard ratios were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression models. Patients' median follow-up time was 8.18 (2.37-15.84) months. Overall survival at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months were 52.4%, 25.7%, 13.2% and 7.9% in Blacks in compared to 51.0%, 23.6%, 11.5% and 6.9% in Whites. White patients had significantly higher socioeconomic status than Black patients. By contrast, Blacks were found associated with younger age at diagnosis, a significantly higher chance of receiving radiation therapy and treatments at an academic/research program. Compared to Whites, Blacks had a 9% decreased risk of death.ConclusionOur study demonstrated that Blacks have significant socioeconomic disadvantages compared to Whites. However, despite these unfavorable factors, survival for Blacks was significantly improved compared to Whites after covariable adjustment. This may be due to Blacks with Stage IV SCLC having a higher chance of receiving radiation therapy and treatments at an academic/research program. Identifying and removing the barriers to obtaining treatments at academic/research programs or improving the management in non-academic centers could improve the overall survival of stage IV SCLC.

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Dataset Information

The Role of Stage at Diagnosis in Colorectal Cancer Black-White Survival Disparities: A Counterfactual Causal Inference Approach.

Publications

The Role of Stage at Diagnosis in Colorectal Cancer Black-White Survival Disparities: A Counterfactual Causal Inference Approach.

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