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"Intrinsic" correlations and their temporal evolutions between winter-time PNA/EPW and winter drought in the west United States.

ABSTRACT: In this study, relations between winter-time Pacific-Northern America pattern (PNA)/East Pacific wave-train (EPW) and winter-time drought in the west United States over the period of 1951-2010 are analyzed. Considering traditional Pearson's Correlation Coefficient can be influenced by non-stationarity and nonlinearity, a recently proposed method, Detrended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) is applied. With DPCCA, we analyzed the "intrinsic" correlations between PNA/EPW and the winter drought with possible effects of ENSO and PDO removed. We found, i) significant negative correlations between PNA/EPW and drought on time scales of 5-6 years after removing the effects of ENSO, ii) and significant negative correlations between PNA/EPW and drought on time scales of 15-25 years after removing the effects of PDO. By further studying the temporal evolutions of the "intrinsic" correlations, we found on time scales of 5-6 years, the "intrinsic" correlations between PNA/EPW and drought can vary severely with time, but for most time, the correlations are negative. While on interdecadal (15-25 years) time scales, after the effects of PDO removed, unlike the relations between PNA and drought, the "intrinsic" correlations between EPW and drought takes nearly homogeneous-sign over the whole period, indicating a better model can be designed by using EPW.

SUBMITTER: Piao L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4728685 | biostudies-other | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:West Nile virus (WNV), an arbovirus maintained in a bird-mosquito enzootic cycle, can infect other vertebrates including humans. WNV was first reported in the US in 1999 where, to date, three genotypes belonging to WNV lineage I have been described (NY99, WN02, SW/WN03). We report here the WNV sequences obtained from two birds, one mosquito, and 29 selected human samples acquired during the US epidemics from 2006-2011 and our examination of the evolutionary dynamics in the open-reading frame of WNV isolates reported from 1999-2011. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods were used to perform the phylogenetic analyses and selection pressure analyses were conducted with the HyPhy package. Phylogenetic analysis identified human WNV isolates within the main WNV genotypes that have circulated in the US. Within genotype SW/WN03, we have identified a cluster with strains derived from blood donors and birds from Idaho and North Dakota collected during 2006-2007, termed here MW/WN06. Using different codon-based and branch-site selection models, we detected a number of codons subjected to positive pressure in WNV genes. The mean nucleotide substitution rate for WNV isolates obtained from humans was calculated to be 5.06×10(-4) substitutions/site/year (s/s/y). The Bayesian skyline plot shows that after a period of high genetic variability following the introduction of WNV into the US, the WNV population appears to have reached genetic stability. The establishment of WNV in the US represents a unique opportunity to understand how an arbovirus adapts and evolves in a naïve environment. We describe a novel, well-supported cluster of WNV formed by strains collected from humans and birds from Idaho and North Dakota. Adequate genetic surveillance is essential to public health since new mutants could potentially affect viral pathogenesis, decrease performance of diagnostic assays, and negatively impact the efficacy of vaccines and the development of specific therapies.

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"Intrinsic" correlations and their temporal evolutions between winter-time PNA/EPW and winter drought in the west United States.

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