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Prediction model for recurrence probabilities after intravesical chemotherapy in patients with intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, including external validation.

ABSTRACT: To develop a model to predict recurrence for patients with intermediate-risk (IR) non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) treated with intravesical chemotherapy which can be challenging because of the heterogeneous characteristics of these patients.Data from three Dutch trials were combined. Patients treated with intravesical chemotherapy with characteristics according to the IR definition of the EAU guideline 2013 were included. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression with selection methods were used to identify predictors of recurrence at 1, 2, and 5 years. An easy-readable table for recurrence probabilities was developed. An external validation was done using data from Spanish patients.A total of 724 patients were available for analyses, of which 305 were primary patients. Recurrences occurred in 413 patients (57%). History of recurrences, history of intravesical treatment, grade 2, multiple tumors, and adjuvant treatment with epirubicin were relevant predictors for recurrence-free survival with hazard ratios of 1.48, 1.38, 1.22, 1.56, and 1.27, respectively. A table for recurrence probabilities was developed using these five predictors. Based on the probability of recurrence, three risk groups were identified. Patients in each of the separate risk groups should be scheduled for less or more aggressive treatment. The model showed sufficient discrimination and good predictive accuracy. External validation showed good validity.In our model, we identified five relevant predictors for recurrence-free survival in IR-NMIBC patients treated with intravesical chemotherapy. These recurrence predictors allow the urologists to stratify patients in risk groups for recurrence that could help in deciding for an individualized treatment approach.

SUBMITTER: Lammers RJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4729802 | biostudies-other | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Prediction model for recurrence probabilities after intravesical chemotherapy in patients with intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, including external validation.

Lammers Rianne J M RJ Hendriks Jan C M JC Rodriguez Faba O Rodriguez Faba OR Witjes Wim P J WP Palou Joan J Witjes J Alfred JA

World journal of urology 20150530 2

<h4>Purpose</h4>To develop a model to predict recurrence for patients with intermediate-risk (IR) non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) treated with intravesical chemotherapy which can be challenging because of the heterogeneous characteristics of these patients.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from three Dutch trials were combined. Patients treated with intravesical chemotherapy with characteristics according to the IR definition of the EAU guideline 2013 were included. Uni- and multivariable Cox regr ...[more]

PMID: 26025189

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Project description:IntroductionIntravesical therapy (IVT), including Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), is the standard of care for high grade (HG) non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). Despite the use of IVT, many patients recur after treatment. The bladder microbiome and its role in disease processes has recently risen to prominence. We aim to characterize changes that occur in the bladder microbiome over the course of intravesical therapy and assess whether these changes correlate with outcomes in patients with NMIBC.MethodsPatients with NMIBC undergoing induction BCG or intravesical therapy were prospectively enrolled from January 2019 to March 2020. Patients with clinical T2 or greater pathology or active urinary tract infection at enrollment were excluded. Twenty-nine patients had catheterized (bladder) urine samples collected prior to induction intravesical therapy and prior to each IVT instillation. Twenty-seven received BCG while 2 received intravesical gemcitabine. Bacteria were identified using 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing. Bladder microbiome changes were evaluated and differences between patients who recurred and patients who did not recur after IVT were investigated.ResultsAcross the 29 patients analyzed, bacterial richness decreased significantly following intravesical therapy (Richness, P=0.01). Evenness and overall diversity did not change significantly (Pielou, P=0.62; Shannon, P=0.13). Patients who experienced recurrence had a higher relative abundance of Aerococcus in their urine (P<0.01), while those who did not recur had significantly more Ureaplasma (P=0.01) and Escherichia/Shigella species (P=0.05). Patients with decreased levels of alpha diversity were more likely to fall within the non-recurrence cohort.ConclusionIVT for NMIBC appears to change the urinary microbiome by decreasing richness while not altering evenness or overall diversity. The presence of Aerococcus species may be predictive of a poor cancer response to IVT, while the presence of Ureaplasma and Escherichia/Shigella may predict a favorable response to IVT. Further studies are warranted to elucidate and confirm the significance of changes in the bladder microbiome.

Dataset Information

Prediction model for recurrence probabilities after intravesical chemotherapy in patients with intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, including external validation.

Publications

Prediction model for recurrence probabilities after intravesical chemotherapy in patients with intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, including external validation.

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