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Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

ABSTRACT: Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short-term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long-term mortality. The added value of long-term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long-term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed.Long-term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c-index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed.Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one-, three-, and five years, respectively (median follow-up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long-term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences.Long-term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long-term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher-risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow-up care. More research appears warranted to refine long-term CABG clinical risk models.

SUBMITTER: Carr BM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4738429 | biostudies-other | 2016 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

Carr Brendan M BM Romeiser Jamie J Ruan Joyce J Gupta Sandeep S Seifert Frank C FC Zhu Wei W Shroyer A Laurie AL

Journal of cardiac surgery 20151105 1

<h4>Background/aim</h4>Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short-term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long-term mortality. The added value of long-term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long-term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any diff ...[more]

PMID: 26543019

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Project description:BackgroundSeveral of the most extensively used risk prediction tools for coronary artery bypass grafting outcomes include female sex as an independent risk factor for postoperative outcomes. It is not clear whether this putative increased surgical risk impacts long-term survival. This study aimed to assess sex differences in 10-year all-cause mortality.MethodsRetrospective analysis of 5340 consecutive patients undergoing primary isolated coronary artery bypass surgery, performed from 2000 to 2015, in a Portuguese level III Hospital. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at ten years. We employed an overlap weighting algorithm to minimize confounding. Its target population highlights patients with the most overlap in their observed characteristics, and its corresponding estimand is the average treatment effect in the overlap population.ResultsWe identified that 5340 patients underwent isolated CABG: 1104 (20.7%) were female, and 4236 (79.3%) were male. Sixteen patients were lost to follow-up (0.3%). The median follow-up time was 12.79 (IQR, 9.52-16.66) years: 12.68 (IQR, 9.48-16.54) years for the male patient group and 13.13 (IQR, 9.75-16.98) years for the female patient group. The primary endpoint of all-cause mortality at ten years occurred in 1106 patients (26.1%) in the male patient group, compared with 315 (28.5%) in the female patient group. The unweighted survival analysis for both groups reveals the worst long-term prognosis for the female cohort (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.35; p < 0.001), while in the overlap weighted survival analysis, such long-term difference in prognosis disappears (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.09; p = 0.693).ConclusionIn this longitudinal, population-level analysis of patients undergoing primary, isolated CABG, we demonstrated that the female sex is not associated with increased long-term all-cause mortality compared to their male counterparts. Thus, sex should not influence the undertaking of an adequate revascularization strategy.

Project description:BackgroundThe necessary margin of excision for cutaneous melanomas greater than 2 mm in thickness is controversial. At a median follow-up of 5 years, findings from our previously published randomised trial of narrow (1 cm) versus wide (3 cm) excision margins in patients with thick cutaneous melanomas showed that narrow margins were associated with an increased frequency of locoregional relapse, but no significant difference in overall survival was apparent. We now report a long-term survival analysis of that trial.MethodsWe did a randomised, open-label multicentre trial in 59 hospitals--57 in the UK, one in Poland, and one in South Africa. Patients with one primary localised cutaneous melanoma greater than 2 mm in Breslow thickness on the trunk or limbs (excluding palms or soles) were randomly assigned (1:1) centrally to receive surgery with either a 1 cm or 3 cm excision margin following an initial surgery. The randomisation lists were generated with random permuted blocks and stratified by centre and extent of initial surgery. The endpoints of this analysis were overall survival and melanoma-specific survival. Analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population. This trial was not registered because it predated mandatory trial registration.FindingsBetween Dec 16, 1992, and May 22, 2001, we randomly assigned 900 patients to surgery with either a 1 cm excision margin (n=453) or a 3 cm excision margin (n=447). At a median follow-up of 8·8 years (106 months [IQR 76-135], 494 patients had died, with 359 of these deaths attributed to melanoma. 194 deaths were attributed to melanoma in the 1 cm group compared with 165 in the 3 cm group (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·24 [95% CI 1·01-1·53]; p=0·041). Although a higher number of deaths overall occurred in the 1 cm group compared with the 3 cm group (253 vs 241), the difference was not significant (unadjusted HR 1·14 [95% CI 0·96-1·36]; p=0·14). Surgical complications were reported in 35 (8%) patients in the 1 cm excision margin group and 65 (15%) patients in the 3 cm group.InterpretationOur findings suggest that a 1 cm excision margin is inadequate for cutaneous melanoma with Breslow thickness greater than 2 mm on the trunk and limbs. Current guidelines advise a 2 cm margin for melanomas greater than 2 mm in thickness but only a 1 cm margin for thinner melanomas. The adequacy of a 1 cm margin for thinner melanomas with poor prognostic features should be addressed in future randomised studies.FundingCancer Research UK, North Thames National Health Service Executive, Northern and Yorkshire National Health Service Executive, British United Provident Association Foundation, British Association of Plastic Surgeons, the Meirion Thomas Cancer Research Fund, and the National Institute for Health and Research Biomedical Research Centre at The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust.

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Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

Publications

Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

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