Validation of a risk prediction score for proximal neoplasia in colorectal cancer screening: a prospective colonoscopy study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wong MC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4745041 | biostudies-other | 2016 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Eliciting patient preferences within the context of shared decision making has been advocated for colorectal cancer screening. Risk stratification for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) might facilitate more effective shared decision making when selecting an appropriate screening option. Our objective was to develop and validate a clinical index for estimating the probability of ACN at screening colonoscopy.We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 3,543 asymptomatic, mostly average-risk patients 50-79 years of age undergoing screening colonoscopy at two urban safety net hospitals. Predictors of ACN were identified using multiple logistic regression. Model performance was internally validated using bootstrapping methods.The final index consisted of five independent predictors of risk (age, smoking, alcohol intake, height, and a combined sex/race/ethnicity variable). Smoking was the strongest predictor (net reclassification improvement (NRI), 8.4%) and height the weakest (NRI, 1.5%). Using a simplified weighted scoring system based on 0.5 increments of the adjusted odds ratio, the risk of ACN ranged from 3.2% (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.6-3.9) for the low-risk group (score ?2) to 8.6% (95% CI, 7.4-9.7) for the intermediate/high-risk group (score 3-11). The model had moderate to good overall discrimination (C-statistic, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.66-0.72) and good calibration (P=0.73-0.93).A simple 5-item risk index based on readily available clinical data accurately stratifies average-risk patients into low- and intermediate/high-risk categories for ACN at screening colonoscopy. Uptake into clinical practice could facilitate more effective shared decision-making for CRC screening, particularly in situations where patient and provider test preferences differ.
| S-EPMC4705553 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop and validate a model to estimate the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia in Caucasian patients. DESIGN: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of database records for 40-year-old to 66-year-old patients who entered a national primary colonoscopy-based screening programme for colorectal cancer in 73 centres in Poland in the year 2007. We used multivariate logistic regression to investigate the associations between clinical variables and the presence of advanced neoplasia in a randomly selected test set, and confirmed the associations in a validation set. We used model coefficients to develop a risk score for detection of advanced colorectal neoplasia. RESULTS: Advanced colorectal neoplasia was detected in 2544 of the 35,918 included participants (7.1%). In the test set, a logistic-regression model showed that independent risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia were: age, sex, family history of colorectal cancer, cigarette smoking (p<0.001 for these four factors), and Body Mass Index (p=0.033). In the validation set, the model was well calibrated (ratio of expected to observed risk of advanced neoplasia: 1.00 (95% CI 0.95 to 1.06)) and had moderate discriminatory power (c-statistic 0.62). We developed a score that estimated the likelihood of detecting advanced neoplasia in the validation set, from 1.32% for patients scoring 0, to 19.12% for patients scoring 7-8. CONCLUSIONS: Developed and internally validated score consisting of simple clinical factors successfully estimates the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia in asymptomatic Caucasian patients. Once externally validated, it may be useful for counselling or designing primary prevention studies.
| S-EPMC4078748 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common and potentially preventable malignancy. Evidence has emerged that coronary artery disease patients are at increased risk for developing CRC by shared risk factors. Here we investigated an association between CRC and atrial fibrillation (AF), a surrogate marker of cardiovascular risk, in the setting of routine screening colonoscopy. METHODS:We investigated 1949 asymptomatic participants (median age 61 [54-67] years, 49% females) undergoing screening colonoscopy within the SAKKOPI registry (Salzburg Colon Cancer Prevention Initiative). Forty-six participants with AF (2.4%) were identified, and colonoscopy findings were compared to non-AF participants. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) was used to create 1:1 and 3:1 age- and gender-matched couples. RESULTS:Abnormal findings on screening colonoscopy (any form of adenoma or carcinoma) were more common in AF participants with an odds ratios (OR) of 2.4 [1.3-4.3] in the unmatched analysis, and 2.6 [1.1-6.3] and 2.0 [1.1-4.0] in the 1:1 and 3:1 matched groups, respectively. Correspondingly, the odds of finding advanced adenomas or carcinomas was elevated about three-fold across the different matched and unmatched analyses (OR 3.3 [1.1-10.8] for 3:1 matched participants). At the same time, the prevalence and number of colonic lesions were significantly higher in AF participants (63.0% vs. 33.4% for 3:1 matched participants, p < 0.001). Non-CRC related findings on colonoscopy, like diverticulosis, were non-different between groups. CONCLUSION:Participants with AF had a higher burden of advanced premalignant adenomas and CRC in routine colonoscopy screening. Our data suggest that practitioners should monitor the CRC screening status, especially in AF patients.
| S-EPMC6678897 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background and aimsColorectal cancer (CRC) polygenic risk scores (PRS) may help personalize CRC prevention strategies. We investigated whether an existing PRS was associated with advanced neoplasia (AN) in a population undergoing screening and follow-up colonoscopy.MethodsWe evaluated 10-year outcomes in the Cooperative Studies Program #380 screening colonoscopy cohort, which includes a biorepository of selected individuals with baseline AN (defined as CRC or adenoma ≥10 mm or villous histology, or high-grade dysplasia) and matched individuals without AN. A PRS was constructed from 136 prespecified CRC-risk single nucleotide polymorphisms. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the PRS for associations with AN prevalence at baseline screening colonoscopy or incident AN in participants with at least one follow-up colonoscopy.ResultsThe PRS was associated with AN risk at baseline screening colonoscopy (P = .004). Participants in the lowest PRS quintile had more than a 70% decreased risk of AN at baseline (odds ratio 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.58; P < .001) compared to participants with a PRS in the middle quintile. Using a PRS cut-off of more than the first quintile to indicate need for colonoscopy as primary screening, the sensitivity for detecting AN at baseline is 91.8%. We did not observe a relationship between the PRS and incident AN during follow-up (P = .28).ConclusionA PRS could identify individuals at low risk for prevalent AN. Ongoing work will determine whether this PRS can identify a subset of individuals at sufficiently low risk who could safely delay or be reassured about noninvasive screening. Otherwise, more research is needed to augment these genetic tools to predict incident AN during long-term follow-up.
| S-EPMC11307447 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundQuantitative faecal immunochemical tests measure faecal haemoglobin concentration (f-Hb), which increases in the presence of colorectal neoplasia.ObjectiveWe examined the diagnostic accuracy of faecal immunochemical test (FIT)in patients at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) attending for surveillance colonoscopy as per national guidelines.MethodsA total of 1103 consecutive patients were prospectively invited to complete a FIT before their scheduled colonoscopy in two university hospitals in 2014- 2016. F-Hb was analysed on an OC-Sensor io automated analyser (Eiken Chemical Co., Ltd, Tokyo, Japan) with a limit of detection of 2 µg Hb/g faeces. The diagnostic accuracy of f-Hb for CRC and higher-risk adenoma was examined.ResultsA total of 643 patients returned a faecal test. After excluding 4 patients with known inflammatory bowel disease, 639 (57.9%) remained in the study: age range: 25-90 years (median: 64 years, interquartile range (IQR): 55-71): 54.6% male. Of 593 patients who also completed colonoscopy, 41 (6.9%) had advanced neoplasia (4 CRC, 37 higher-risk adenoma). Of the 238 patients (40.1%) who had detectable f-Hb, 31 (13.0%) had advanced neoplasia (2 CRC, 29 higher-risk adenoma) compared with 10 (2.8%) in those with undetectable f-Hb (2 CRC, 8 higher-risk adenoma). Detectable f-Hb gave negative predictive values of 99.4% for CRC and 97.2% for CRC plus higher-risk adenoma.ConclusionIn patients at increased risk of CRC under colonoscopy surveillance, a test measuring faecal haemoglobin can provide an objective estimate of the risk of advanced neoplasia, and could enable tailored scheduling of colonoscopy.
| S-EPMC7268942 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There is no guideline defining the optimal time from a positive screening fecal occult blood test to follow-up colonoscopy. We reviewed records of 231 consecutive primary care patients who received a colonoscopy within 18 months of a positive fecal occult blood test. We examined the relationship between time to colonoscopy and risk of neoplasia on colonoscopy using a logistic regression analysis adjusting for potential confounders such as age, race, and gender. The mean time to colonoscopy was 236 days. Longer time to colonoscopy (OR = 1.10, P = 0.01) and older age (OR 1.04, P = 0.01) were associated with higher odds of neoplasia. The association of time with advanced neoplasia was positive, but not statistically significant (OR 1.07, P = 0.14). In this study, a longer interval to colonoscopy after fecal occult blood test was associated with an increased risk of neoplasia. Determining the optimal interval for follow-up is desirable and will require larger studies.
| S-EPMC3726721 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSingle nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based polygenic risk scoring is predictive of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. However, few studies have investigated the association of genetic risk score (GRS) with detection of adenomatous polyps at screening colonoscopy.MethodsWe randomly selected 1769 Caucasian subjects who underwent screening colonoscopy from the Genomic Health Initiative (GHI), a biobank of NorthShore University HealthSystem. Outcomes from initial screening colonoscopy were recorded. Twenty-two CRC risk-associated SNPs were obtained from the Affymetrix™ SNP array and used to calculate an odds ratio (OR)-weighted and population-standardized GRS. Subjects with GRS of < 0.5, 0.5-1.5, and > 1.5 were categorized as low, average and elevated risk.ResultsAmong 1,769 subjects, 520 (29%) had 1 or more adenomatous polyps. GRS was significantly higher in subjects with adenomatous polyps than those without; mean (95% confidence interval) was 1.02 (1.00-1.05) and 0.97 (0.95-0.99), respectively, p < 0.001. The association remained significant after adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, and family history, p < 0.001. The detection rate of adenomatous polyps was 10.8%, 29.0% and 39.7% in subjects with low, average and elevated GRS, respectively, p-trend < 0.001. Higher GRS was also associated with early age diagnosis of adenomatous polyps, p < 0.001. In contrast, positive family history was not associated with risk and age of adenomatous polyps.ConclusionsGRS was significantly associated with adenomatous polyps in subjects undergoing screening colonoscopy. This result may help in stratifying average risk patients and facilitating personalized colonoscopy screening strategies.
| S-EPMC7881602 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAdapting screening strategy to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk may improve efficiency for all stakeholders however limited tools for such risk stratification exist. Colorectal cancers usually evolve from advanced neoplasms that are present for years. We applied the National Cancer Institute (NCI) CRC Risk Assessment Tool, which calculates future risk of CRC, to determine whether it could be used to predict current advanced neoplasia (AN) in a veteran cohort undergoing a baseline screening colonoscopy.MethodsThis was a prospective assessment of the relationship between future CRC risk predicted by the NCI tool, and the presence of AN at screening colonoscopy. Family, medical, dietary and physical activity histories were collected at the time of screening colonoscopy and used to calculate absolute CRC risk at 5, 10 and 20?years. Discriminatory accuracy was assessed.ResultsOf 3121 veterans undergoing screening colonoscopy, 94% had complete data available to calculate risk (N =?2934, median age 63?years, 100% men, and 15% minorities). Prevalence of AN at baseline screening colonoscopy was 11 % (N =?313). For tertiles of estimated absolute CRC risk at 5?years, AN prevalences were 6.54% (95% CI, 4.99, 8.09), 11.26% (95% CI, 9.28-13.24), and 14.21% (95% CI, 12.02-16.40). For tertiles of estimated risk at 10?years, the prevalences were 6.34% (95% CI, 4.81-7.87), 11.25% (95% CI, 9.27-13.23), and 14.42% (95% CI, 12.22-16.62). For tertiles of estimated absolute CRC risk at 20?years, current AN prevalences were 7.54% (95% CI, 5.75-9.33), 10.53% (95% CI, 8.45-12.61), and 12.44% (95% CI, 10.2-14.68). The area under the curve for predicting current AN was 0.60 (95% CI; 0.57-0.63, p <?0.0001) at 5?years, 0.60 (95% CI, 0.57-0.63, p <?0.0001) at 10?years and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.54-0.61, p <?0.0001) at 20?years.ConclusionThe NCI tool had modest discriminatory function for estimating the presence of current advanced neoplasia in veterans undergoing a first screening colonoscopy. These findings are comparable to other clinically utilized cancer risk prediction models and may be used to inform the benefit-risk assessment of screening, particularly for patients with competing comorbidities and lower risk, for whom a non-invasive screening approach is preferred.
| S-EPMC6852743 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer death worldwide, and its incidence is correlated with infections, chronic inflammation, diet, and genetic factors. An emerging aspect is that microbial dysbiosis and chronic infections triggered by certain bacteria can be risk factors for tumor progression. Recent data suggest that certain bacterial toxins implicated in DNA attack or in proliferation, replication, and death can be risk factors for insurgence and progression of CRC. In this study, we recruited more than 300 biopsy specimens from people undergoing colonoscopy, and we analyzed to determine whether a correlation exists between the presence of bacterial genes coding for toxins possibly involved in CRC onset and progression and the different stages of CRC. We also analyzed to determine whether CRC-predisposing genetic factors could contribute to bacterial toxins response. Our results showed that CIF toxin is associated with polyps or adenomas, whereas pks+ seems to be a predisposing factor for CRC. Toxins from Escherichia coli as a whole have a higher incidence rate in adenocarcinoma patients compared to controls, whereas Bacteroides fragilis toxin does not seem to be associated with pre-cancerous nor with cancerous lesions. These results have been obtained irrespectively of the presence of CRC-risk loci.
| S-EPMC8402601 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Estimation of absolute risk of developing colorectal neoplasm is essential for personalized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We developed models to determine relative and absolute risks of colorectal neoplasm based on lifestyle and genetic variants and to validate their application in risk-adapted screening. Methods: We prospectively collected data from 203 advanced neoplasms, 464 non-advanced adenomas, and 1,213 healthy controls from a CRC screening trial in China in 2018-2019. The risk prediction model based on four lifestyle factors and a polygenic risk score (PRS) consisted of 19 CRC-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We assessed the relative and 10-year absolute risks of developing colorectal neoplasm and the yield of a risk-adapted screening approach incorporating risk models, fecal immunochemical test, and colonoscopy. Results: Compared to the participants with favorable lifestyle and lower PRS, those with unfavorable lifestyle and higher PRS had 2.87- and 3.79-fold higher risk of colorectal neoplasm in males and females, respectively. For a 50-year-old man or a 50-year-old woman with the highest risk profile, the estimated 10-year absolute risk of developing colorectal neoplasm was 6.59% (95% CI: 6.53-6.65%) and 4.19% (95% CI: 4.11-4.28%), respectively, compared to 2.80% (95% CI: 2.78-2.81%) for men and 2.24% (95% CI: 2.21-2.27%) for women with the lowest risk profile. The positive predictive value for advanced neoplasm was 31.7%, and the number of colonoscopies needed to detect one advanced neoplasm was 3.2. Conclusion: The risk models, absolute risk estimates, and risk-adapted screening presented in our study would contribute to developing effective personalized CRC prevention and screening strategies.
| S-EPMC8324207 | biostudies-literature