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A nomogram to predict the probability of axillary lymph node metastasis in early breast cancer patients with positive axillary ultrasound.

ABSTRACT: Among patients with a preoperative positive axillary ultrasound, around 40% of them are pathologically proved to be free from axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis. We aimed to develop and validate a model to predict the probability of ALN metastasis as a preoperative tool to support clinical decision-making. Clinicopathological features of 322 early breast cancer patients with positive axillary ultrasound findings were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of ALN metastasis. A model was created from the logistic regression analysis, comprising lymph node transverse diameter, cortex thickness, hilum status, clinical tumour size, histological grade and estrogen receptor, and it was subsequently validated in another 234 patients. Coefficient of determination (R(2)) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were calculated to be 0.9375 and 0.864, showing good calibration and discrimination of the model, respectively. The false-negative rates of the model were 0% and 5.3% for the predicted probability cut-off points of 7.1% and 13.8%, respectively. This means that omission of axillary surgery may be safe for patients with a predictive probability of less than 13.8%. After further validation in clinical practice, this model may support increasingly limited surgical approaches to the axilla in breast cancer.

SUBMITTER: Qiu SQ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4753408 | biostudies-other | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundPathological complete response (pCR) of axillary lymph nodes (ALNs) is frequently achieved in patients with clinically node-positive breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), and ALN status is an important prognostic factor for breast cancer patients. This study aims to develop a new predictive clinical model to assess the ALN pCR rate after NAC.MethodsThis was a retrospective series of 467 patients who had biopsy-proven positive ALNs at diagnosis and underwent ALN dissection from 2007 to 2014 at the National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences. We analyzed the clinicopathologic features of the patients and developed a nomogram to predict the probability of ALN pCR. A multivariable logistic regression stepwise model was used to construct a nomogram to predict ALN pCR in node-positive patients. The adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to quantify the ability to rank patients by risk. Internal validation was performed using the 50/50 hold-out validation method. The nomogram was externally validated with prospective cohorts of 167 patients from 2016 to 2018 at the Cancer Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and 114 patients from 2018 to 2020 at Beijing Tiantan Hospital.ResultsIn this retrospective study, 115 (24.6%) patients achieved ALN pCR after NAC. Multivariate analysis showed that clinical tumor stage (Odds ratio [OR]: 0.321, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.121-0.856; P = 0.023); primary tumor response (OR: 0.189; 95% CI: 0.123-0.292; P < 0.001), and estrogen receptor status (OR: 0.530, 95% CI: 0.304-0.925; P = 0.025) were independent predictors of ALN pCR. The nomogram was constructed based on the result of multivariate analysis. In the internal validation of performance of nomogram, the AUCs for the training and test sets were 0.719 and 0.753, respectively. The nomogram was validated in external cohorts with AUCs of 0.720, which demonstrated good discriminatory power in these data sets.ConclusionWe developed a nomogram to predict the likelihood of axillary pCR in node-positive breast cancer patients after NAC. The predictive model performed well in multicenter prospective external validation. This practical tool could provide information to surgeons regarding whether to perform additional ALN dissection after NAC.Trial registrationChiCTR.org.cn, ChiCTR1800014968.

Project description:ObjectivesPreoperative evaluation of axillary lymph node (ALN) status is an essential part of deciding the appropriate treatment. According to ACOSOG Z0011 trials, the new goal of the ALN status evaluation is tumor burden (low burden, < 3 positive ALNs; high burden, ≥ 3 positive ALNs), instead of metastasis or non-metastasis. We aimed to develop a radiomics nomogram integrating clinicopathologic features, ABUS imaging features and radiomics features from ABUS for predicting ALN tumor burden in early breast cancer.MethodsA total of 310 patients with breast cancer were enrolled. Radiomics score was generated from the ABUS images. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the predicting model, we incorporated the radiomics score, ABUS imaging features and clinicopathologic features, and this was presented with a radiomics nomogram. Besides, we separately constructed an ABUS model to analyze the performance of ABUS imaging features in predicting ALN tumor burden. The performance of the models was assessed through discrimination, calibration curve, and decision curve.ResultsThe radiomics score, which consisted of 13 selected features, showed moderate discriminative ability (AUC 0.794 and 0.789 in the training and test sets). The ABUS model, comprising diameter, hyperechoic halo, and retraction phenomenon, showed moderate predictive ability (AUC 0.772 and 0.736 in the training and test sets). The ABUS radiomics nomogram, integrating radiomics score with retraction phenomenon and US-reported ALN status, showed an accurate agreement between ALN tumor burden and pathological verification (AUC 0.876 and 0.851 in the training and test sets). The decision curves showed that ABUS radiomics nomogram was clinically useful and more excellent than US-reported ALN status by experienced radiologists.ConclusionsThe ABUS radiomics nomogram, with non-invasive, individualized and precise assessment, may assist clinicians to determine the optimal treatment strategy and avoid overtreatment.

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A nomogram to predict the probability of axillary lymph node metastasis in early breast cancer patients with positive axillary ultrasound.

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