Open Source Bayesian Models. 3. Composite Models for Prediction of Binned Responses.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Clark AM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4764945 | biostudies-other | 2016 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
Similar Datasets
Project description:On the order of hundreds of absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADME/Tox) models have been described in the literature in the past decade which are more often than not inaccessible to anyone but their authors. Public accessibility is also an issue with computational models for bioactivity, and the ability to share such models still remains a major challenge limiting drug discovery. We describe the creation of a reference implementation of a Bayesian model-building software module, which we have released as an open source component that is now included in the Chemistry Development Kit (CDK) project, as well as implemented in the CDD Vault and in several mobile apps. We use this implementation to build an array of Bayesian models for ADME/Tox, in vitro and in vivo bioactivity, and other physicochemical properties. We show that these models possess cross-validation receiver operator curve values comparable to those generated previously in prior publications using alternative tools. We have now described how the implementation of Bayesian models with FCFP6 descriptors generated in the CDD Vault enables the rapid production of robust machine learning models from public data or the user's own datasets. The current study sets the stage for generating models in proprietary software (such as CDD) and exporting these models in a format that could be run in open source software using CDK components. This work also demonstrates that we can enable biocomputation across distributed private or public datasets to enhance drug discovery.
| S-EPMC4478615 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe logarithmic acid dissociation constant pKa reflects the ionization of a chemical, which affects lipophilicity, solubility, protein binding, and ability to pass through the plasma membrane. Thus, pKa affects chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity properties. Multiple proprietary software packages exist for the prediction of pKa, but to the best of our knowledge no free and open-source programs exist for this purpose. Using a freely available data set and three machine learning approaches, we developed open-source models for pKa prediction.MethodsThe experimental strongest acidic and strongest basic pKa values in water for 7912 chemicals were obtained from DataWarrior, a freely available software package. Chemical structures were curated and standardized for quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling using KNIME, and a subset comprising 79% of the initial set was used for modeling. To evaluate different approaches to modeling, several datasets were constructed based on different processing of chemical structures with acidic and/or basic pKas. Continuous molecular descriptors, binary fingerprints, and fragment counts were generated using PaDEL, and pKa prediction models were created using three machine learning methods, (1) support vector machines (SVM) combined with k-nearest neighbors (kNN), (2) extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and (3) deep neural networks (DNN).ResultsThe three methods delivered comparable performances on the training and test sets with a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) around 1.5 and a coefficient of determination (R2) around 0.80. Two commercial pKa predictors from ACD/Labs and ChemAxon were used to benchmark the three best models developed in this work, and performance of our models compared favorably to the commercial products.ConclusionsThis work provides multiple QSAR models to predict the strongest acidic and strongest basic pKas of chemicals, built using publicly available data, and provided as free and open-source software on GitHub.
| S-EPMC6749653 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In data modelling using the composite Pareto distribution, any observations above a particular threshold value are assumed to follow Pareto type distribution, whereas the rest of the observations are assumed to follow a different distribution. This paper proposes on the use of Bayesian approach to the composite Pareto models involving specification of the prior distribution on the proportion of data coming from the Pareto distribution, instead of assuming the prior distribution on the threshold, as often done in the literature. Based on a simulation study, it is found that the parameter estimates determined when using uniform prior on the proportion is less biased as compared to the point estimates determined when using uniform prior on the threshold. Applications on income data and finance are included for illustrative examples.
| S-EPMC8460011 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Research in psychology generates complex data and often requires unique statistical analyses. These tasks are often very specific, so appropriate statistical models and methods cannot be found in accessible Bayesian tools. As a result, the use of Bayesian methods is limited to researchers and students that have the technical and statistical fundamentals that are required for probabilistic programming. Such knowledge is not part of the typical psychology curriculum and is a difficult obstacle for psychology students and researchers to overcome. The goal of the bayes4psy package is to bridge this gap and offer a collection of models and methods to be used for analysing data that arises from psychological experiments and as a teaching tool for Bayesian statistics in psychology. The package contains the Bayesian t-test and bootstrapping along with models for analysing reaction times, success rates, and tasks utilizing colors as a response. It also provides the diagnostic, analytic and visualization tools for the modern Bayesian data analysis workflow.
| S-EPMC7235305 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The electrochemical response characteristics of existing and emerging porous electrode theory (PET) models was benchmarked to establish a common basis to assess their physical reaches, limitations, and accuracy. Three open source PET models: dualfoil, MPET, and LIONSIMBA were compared to simulate the discharge of a LiMn2O4-graphite cell against experimental data. For C-rates below 2C, the simulated discharge voltage curves matched the experimental data within 4% deviation for dualfoil, MPET, and LIONSIMBA, while for C-rates above 3C, dualfoil and MPET show smaller deviations, within 5%, against experiments. The electrochemical profiles of all three codes exhibit significant qualitative differences, despite showing the same macroscopic voltage response, leading the user to different conclusions regarding the battery performance and possible degradation mechanisms of the analyzed system.
| S-EPMC11004710 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEvidence-based treatment decisions in medicine are made founded on population-level evidence obtained during randomized clinical trials. In an era of personalized medicine, these decisions should be based on the predicted benefit of a treatment on a patient-level. Survival prediction models play a central role as they incorporate the time-to-event and censoring. In medical applications uncertainty is critical especially when treatments differ in their side effect profiles or costs. Additionally, models must be adapted to local populations without diminishing performance and often without the original training data available due to privacy concern. Both points are supported by Bayesian models-yet they are rarely used. The aim of this work is to evaluate Bayesian parametric survival models on public datasets including cardiology, infectious diseases, and oncology.Materials and methodsBayesian parametric survival models based on the Exponential and Weibull distribution were implemented as a Python package. A linear combination and a neural network were used for predicting the parameters of the distributions. A superiority design was used to assess whether Bayesian models are better than commonly used models such as Cox Proportional Hazards, Random Survival Forest, and Neural Network-based Cox Proportional Hazards. In a secondary analysis, overfitting was compared between these models. An equivalence design was used to assess whether the prediction performance of Bayesian models after model updating using Bayes rule is equivalent to retraining on the full dataset.ResultsIn this study, we found that Bayesian parametric survival models perform as good as state-of-the art models while requiring less hyperparameters to be tuned and providing a measure of the uncertainty of the predictions. In addition, these models were less prone to overfitting. Furthermore, we show that updating these models using Bayes rule yields equivalent performance compared to models trained on combined original and new datasets.ConclusionsBayesian parametric survival models are non-inferior to conventional survival models while requiring less hyperparameter tuning, being less prone to overfitting, and allowing model updating using Bayes rule. Further, the Bayesian models provide a measure of the uncertainty on the statistical inference, and, in particular, on the prediction.
| S-EPMC10605790 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Protein structure prediction is an important problem in bioinformatics and has been studied for decades. However, there are still few open-source comprehensive protein structure prediction packages publicly available in the field. In this paper, we present our latest open-source protein tertiary structure prediction system-MULTICOM2, an integration of template-based modeling (TBM) and template-free modeling (FM) methods. The template-based modeling uses sequence alignment tools with deep multiple sequence alignments to search for structural templates, which are much faster and more accurate than MULTICOM1. The template-free (ab initio or de novo) modeling uses the inter-residue distances predicted by DeepDist to reconstruct tertiary structure models without using any known structure as template. In the blind CASP14 experiment, the average TM-score of the models predicted by our server predictor based on the MULTICOM2 system is 0.720 for 58 TBM (regular) domains and 0.514 for 38 FM and FM/TBM (hard) domains, indicating that MULTICOM2 is capable of predicting good tertiary structures across the board. It can predict the correct fold for 76 CASP14 domains (95% regular domains and 55% hard domains) if only one prediction is made for a domain. The success rate is increased to 3% for both regular and hard domains if five predictions are made per domain. Moreover, the prediction accuracy of the pure template-free structure modeling method on both TBM and FM targets is very close to the combination of template-based and template-free modeling methods. This demonstrates that the distance-based template-free modeling method powered by deep learning can largely replace the traditional template-based modeling method even on TBM targets that TBM methods used to dominate and therefore provides a uniform structure modeling approach to any protein. Finally, on the 38 CASP14 FM and FM/TBM hard domains, MULTICOM2 server predictors (MULTICOM-HYBRID, MULTICOM-DEEP, MULTICOM-DIST) were ranked among the top 20 automated server predictors in the CASP14 experiment. After combining multiple predictors from the same research group as one entry, MULTICOM-HYBRID was ranked no. 5. The source code of MULTICOM2 is freely available at https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/multicom/tree/multicom_v2.0 .
| S-EPMC8222248 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Screening combinatorial space for novel materials, such as perovskite-like ones for photovoltaics, has resulted in a high amount of simulated high-throughput data and analysis thereof. This study proposes a comprehensive comparison of structural fingerprint-based machine learning models on seven open-source databases of perovskite-like materials to predict band gaps and energies. It shows that none of the given methods, including graph neural networks, are able to capture arbitrary databases evenly, while underlining that commonly used metrics are highly database-dependent in typical workflows. In addition, the applicability of variance selection and autoencoders to significantly reduce fingerprint size indicates that models built with common fingerprints only rely on a submanifold of the available fingerprint space.
| S-EPMC8154242 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Optokinetic reflex (OKR) responses provide a convenient means to evaluate oculomotor, integrative and afferent visual function in larval zebrafish models, which are commonly used to elucidate molecular mechanisms underlying development, disease and repair of the vertebrate nervous system. NEW METHOD:We developed an open-source MATLAB-based solution for automated quantitative analysis of OKR responses in larval zebrafish. The package includes applications to: (i) generate sinusoidally-transformed animated grating patterns suitable for projection onto a cylindrical screen to elicit the OKR; (ii) determine and record the angular orientations of the eyes in each frame of a video recording showing the OKR response; and (iii) analyze angular orientation data from the tracking program to yield a set of parameters that quantify essential elements of the OKR. The method can be employed without modification using the operating manual provided. In addition, annotated source code is included, allowing users to modify or adapt the software for other applications. RESULTS:We validated the algorithms and measured OKR responses in normal larval zebrafish, showing good agreement with published quantitative data, where available. COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHOD(S):We provide the first open-source method to elicit and analyze the OKR in larval zebrafish. The wide range of parameters that are automatically quantified by our algorithms significantly expands the scope of quantitative analysis previously reported. CONCLUSIONS:Our method for quantifying OKR responses will be useful for numerous applications in neuroscience using the genetically- and chemically-tractable zebrafish model.
| S-EPMC5708171 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Genomic selection, enabled by whole genome prediction (WGP) methods, is revolutionizing plant breeding. Existing WGP methods have been shown to deliver accurate predictions in the most common settings, such as prediction of across environment performance for traits with additive gene effects. However, prediction of traits with non-additive gene effects and prediction of genotype by environment interaction (G×E), continues to be challenging. Previous attempts to increase prediction accuracy for these particularly difficult tasks employed prediction methods that are purely statistical in nature. Augmenting the statistical methods with biological knowledge has been largely overlooked thus far. Crop growth models (CGMs) attempt to represent the impact of functional relationships between plant physiology and the environment in the formation of yield and similar output traits of interest. Thus, they can explain the impact of G×E and certain types of non-additive gene effects on the expressed phenotype. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a novel and powerful computational procedure, allows the incorporation of CGMs directly into the estimation of whole genome marker effects in WGP. Here we provide a proof of concept study for this novel approach and demonstrate its use with synthetic data sets. We show that this novel approach can be considerably more accurate than the benchmark WGP method GBLUP in predicting performance in environments represented in the estimation set as well as in previously unobserved environments for traits determined by non-additive gene effects. We conclude that this proof of concept demonstrates that using ABC for incorporating biological knowledge in the form of CGMs into WGP is a very promising and novel approach to improving prediction accuracy for some of the most challenging scenarios in plant breeding and applied genetics.
| S-EPMC4488317 | biostudies-literature