Long-term financing needs for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015-2050: a modelling study.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Atun R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4785296 | biostudies-other | 2016 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundIn 2015 around 15 million people living with HIV were receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. Sustained provision of ART, though both prudent and necessary, creates substantial long-term fiscal obligations for countries affected by HIV/AIDS. As donor assistance for health remains constrained, novel financing mechanisms are needed to augment funding domestic sources. We explore how Innovative Financing has been used to co-finance domestic HIV/AIDS responses. Based on analysis of non-health sectors, we identify innovative financing instruments that could be used in the HIV response.MethodsWe undertook a systematic review to identify innovative financing instruments used for (1) domestic HIV/AIDS financing in sub-Saharan Africa (2) international health financing and (3) financing in non-health sectors. We analyzed peer-reviewed and grey literature published between 2002 and 2014. We examined the nature and volume of funds mobilized with innovative financing, then in consultation with leading experts, identified instruments that held potential for financing the HIV response.ResultsOur analysis revealed three innovative financing instruments in use: Zimbabwe's AIDS Trust Fund (a tax/levy-based instrument), Botswana's National HIV/AIDS Prevention Support (BNAPS) International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) Buy-Down (a debt conversion instrument), and Côte d'Ivoire's Debt2Health Debt Swap Agreement (a debt conversion instrument). Zimbabwe's AIDS Trust Fund generated US$ 52.7 million between 2008 and 2011, Botswana's IBRD Buy-Down generated US$ 20 million, and Côte d'Ivoire's Debt2Health Debt Swap Agreement generated US$ 27 million, at least half of which was to be invested in HIV/AIDS programs. Four additional categories of innovative financing instruments met our criteria for future use: (1) remittances and diaspora bonds (2) social and development impact bonds (3) sovereign wealth funds (4) risk and credit guarantees.ConclusionA limited number of innovative financing instruments contributed a very modest share of funding toward domestic HIV/AIDS programs. Several innovative financing instruments successfully applied in other sectors could be used to augment domestic financing toward HIV/AIDS programmes.
| S-EPMC4871060 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Sub-Saharan Africa represents 69% of the total number of individuals living with HIV infection worldwide and 72% of AIDS deaths globally. Pulmonary infection is a common and frequently fatal complication, though little is known regarding the lower airway microbiome composition of this population. Our objectives were to characterize the lower airway microbiome of Ugandan HIV-infected patients with pneumonia, to determine relationships with demographic, clinical, immunological, and microbiological variables and to compare the composition and predicted metagenome of these communities to a comparable cohort of patients in the US (San Francisco). Bronchoalveolar lavage samples from a cohort of 60 Ugandan HIV-infected patients with acute pneumonia were collected. Amplified 16S ribosomal RNA was profiled and aforementioned relationships examined. Ugandan airway microbiome composition and predicted metagenomic function were compared to US HIV-infected pneumonia patients. Among the most common bacterial pulmonary pathogens, Pseudomonas aeruginosa was most prevalent in the Ugandan cohort. Patients with a richer and more diverse airway microbiome exhibited lower bacterial burden, enrichment of members of the Lachnospiraceae and sulfur-reducing bacteria and reduced expression of TNF-alpha and matrix metalloproteinase-9. Compared to San Franciscan patients, Ugandan airway microbiome were significantly richer, and compositionally distinct with predicted metagenomes that encoded a multitude of distinct pathogenic pathways e.g secretion systems. Ugandan pneumonia-associated airway microbiome is compositionally and functionally distinct from those detected in comparable patients in developed countries, a feature which may contribute to adverse outcomes in this population. Please note that the data from the comparable cohort of patients in the USUS data was published as supplemental material of PMID: 22760045 but not submitted to GEO The 'patient_info.txt' contains 12 clinical, 7 immunological and 3 microbiological variables for each patient.
2014-02-20 | GSE52791 | GEO
Project description:Sub-Saharan Africa represents 69% of the total number of individuals living with HIV infection worldwide and 72% of AIDS deaths globally. Pulmonary infection is a common and frequently fatal complication, though little is known regarding the lower airway microbiome composition of this population. Our objectives were to characterize the lower airway microbiome of Ugandan HIV-infected patients with pneumonia, to determine relationships with demographic, clinical, immunological, and microbiological variables and to compare the composition and predicted metagenome of these communities to a comparable cohort of patients in the US (San Francisco). Bronchoalveolar lavage samples from a cohort of 60 Ugandan HIV-infected patients with acute pneumonia were collected. Amplified 16S ribosomal RNA was profiled and aforementioned relationships examined. Ugandan airway microbiome composition and predicted metagenomic function were compared to US HIV-infected pneumonia patients. Among the most common bacterial pulmonary pathogens, Pseudomonas aeruginosa was most prevalent in the Ugandan cohort. Patients with a richer and more diverse airway microbiome exhibited lower bacterial burden, enrichment of members of the Lachnospiraceae and sulfur-reducing bacteria and reduced expression of TNF-alpha and matrix metalloproteinase-9. Compared to San Franciscan patients, Ugandan airway microbiome were significantly richer, and compositionally distinct with predicted metagenomes that encoded a multitude of distinct pathogenic pathways e.g secretion systems. Ugandan pneumonia-associated airway microbiome is compositionally and functionally distinct from those detected in comparable patients in developed countries, a feature which may contribute to adverse outcomes in this population. Please note that the data from the comparable cohort of patients in the USUS data was published as supplemental material of PMID: 22760045 but not submitted to GEO The 'patient_info.txt' contains 12 clinical, 7 immunological and 3 microbiological variables for each patient. The G2 PhyloChip microarray platform (commercially available from Second Genome, Inc.) was used to profile bacteria in lower airway samples from 60 subjects
2014-02-20 | E-GEOD-52791 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:BackgroundLong-term immune reconstitution on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has important implications for HIV-infected children, who increasingly survive into adulthood. Children's response to ART differs from adults', and better descriptive and predictive models of reconstitution are needed to guide policy and direct research. We present statistical models characterising, qualitatively and quantitatively, patterns of long-term CD4 recovery.Methods and findingsCD4 counts every 12 wk over a median (interquartile range) of 4.0 (3.7, 4.4) y in 1,206 HIV-infected children, aged 0.4-17.6 y, starting ART in the Antiretroviral Research for Watoto trial (ISRCTN 24791884) were analysed in an exploratory analysis supplementary to the trial's pre-specified outcomes. Most (n?=?914; 76%) children's CD4 counts rose quickly on ART to a constant age-corrected level. Using nonlinear mixed-effects models, higher long-term CD4 counts were predicted for children starting ART younger, and with higher CD4 counts (p<0.001). These results suggest that current World Health Organization-recommended CD4 thresholds for starting ART in children ?5 y will result in lower CD4 counts in older children when they become adults, such that vertically infected children who remain ART-naïve beyond 10 y of age are unlikely ever to normalise CD4 count, regardless of CD4 count at ART initiation. CD4 profiles with four qualitatively distinct reconstitution patterns were seen in the remaining 292 (24%) children. Study limitations included incomplete viral load data, and that the uncertainty in allocating children to distinct reconstitution groups was not modelled.ConclusionsAlthough younger ART-naïve children are at high risk of disease progression, they have good potential for achieving high CD4 counts on ART in later life provided ART is initiated following current World Health Organization (WHO), Paediatric European Network for Treatment of AIDS, or US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. In contrast, to maximise CD4 reconstitution in treatment-naïve children >10 y, ART should ideally be considered even if there is a low risk of immediate disease progression. Further exploration of the immunological mechanisms for these CD4 recovery profiles should help guide management of paediatric HIV infection and optimise children's immunological development. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
| S-EPMC3812080 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThis study aimed to provide an overview of current knowledge and situational analysis of financing of surgery and anaesthesia across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).SettingSurgical and anaesthesia services across all levels of care-primary, secondary and tertiary.DesignWe performed a scoping review of scientific databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Global Health and African Index Medicus), grey literature and websites of development organisations. Screening and data extraction were conducted by two independent reviewers and abstracted data were summarised using thematic narrative synthesis per the financing domains: mobilisation, pooling and purchasing.ResultsThe search resulted in 5533 unique articles among which 149 met the inclusion criteria: 132 were related to mobilisation, 17 to pooling and 5 to purchasing. Neglect of surgery in national health priorities is widespread in SSA, and no report was found on national level surgical expenditures or budgetary allocations. Financial protection mechanisms are weak or non-existent; poor patients often forego care or face financial catastrophes in seeking care, even in the context of universal public financing (free care) initiatives.ConclusionFinancing of surgical and anaesthesia care in SSA is as poor as it is underinvestigated, calling for increased national prioritisation and tracking of surgical funding. Improving availability, accessibility and affordability of surgical and anaesthesia care require comprehensive and inclusive policy formulations.
| S-EPMC8527159 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since 1990 and the World Conference on Education for All well over half a trillion dollars has been disbursed as aid to education with much of it targeted on low income countries especially those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Some of the beneficiaries of this aid have transformed their economies and their education systems to the point where they can act as fiscal states and finance their recurrent and capital spending on education from domestic revenue. But too many states have failed to make this transition and remain overly dependent on sequential waves of external assistance to reduce gaps between the finance available and what is needed. Grant aid is now unlikely to grow as COVID-19 related recession supresses donor spending. Concessional lending to countries with sub-prime credit ratings and high debt service ratios looks imprudent. The architecture and goals of external assistance need to change to focus on making better use of the resources that are available though much increased efficiency and effectiveness, and on ensuring domestic revenue is increased since this is the only pathway to sustainable development that avoids the infinite do-loop of using aid to fill gaps rather than to address their causes.
| S-EPMC7395592 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Antiretroviral (ARV)-based pre-exposure HIV interventions may soon be rolled out in resource-constrained Sub-Saharan African countries, but rollout plans have yet to be designed. Here we use geospatial modelling and optimization techniques to compare two rollout plans for ARV-based microbicides in South Africa: a utilitarian plan that minimizes incidence by using geographic targeting, and an egalitarian plan that maximizes geographic equity in access to interventions. We find significant geographic variation in the efficiency of interventions in reducing HIV transmission, and that efficiency increases disproportionately with increasing incidence. The utilitarian plan would result in considerable geographic inequity in access to interventions, but (by exploiting geographic variation in incidence) could prevent ~40% more infections than the egalitarian plan. Our results show that the geographic resource allocation decisions made at the beginning of a rollout, and the location where the rollout is initiated, will be crucial in determining the success of interventions in reducing HIV epidemics.
| S-EPMC4322933 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundUniversal health coverage (UHC) embedded within the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, is defined by the World Health Organization as all individuals having access to required health services, of sufficient quality, without suffering financial hardship. Effective strategies for financing healthcare are critical in achieving this goal yet remain a challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This systematic review aims to determine reported health financing mechanisms in SSA within the published literature and summarize potential learnings.MethodsA systematic review was conducted aligned with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) reporting guidelines. On 19 to 30 July 2019, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, Global Health Database, the Cochrane Library, Scopus and JSTOR were searched for literature published from 2005. Studies describing health financing approaches for UHC in SSA were included. Evidence was synthesised in form of a table and thematic analysis.ResultsOf all records, 39 papers were selected for inclusion. Among the included studies, most studies were conducted in Kenya (n = 7), followed by SSA as a whole (n = 6) and Nigeria (n = 5). More than two thirds of the selected studies reported the importance of equitable national health insurance schemes for UHC. The results indicate that a majority of health care revenue in SSA is from direct out-of-pocket payments. Another common financing mechanism was donor funding, which was reported by most of the studies. The average quality score of all studies was 81.6%, indicating a high appraisal score. The interrater reliability Cohen's kappa score, κ=0.43 (p = 0.002), which showed a moderate level of agreement.ConclusionsAppropriate health financing strategies that safeguard financial risk protection underpin sustainable health services and the attainment of UHC. It is evident from the review that innovative health financing strategies in SSA are needed. Some limitations of this review include potentially skewed interpretations due to publication bias and a higher frequency of publications included from two countries in SSA. Establishing evidence-based and multi-sectoral strategies tailored to country contexts remains imperative.
| S-EPMC7916997 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe proportion of heterosexual HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa that occurs within cohabiting partnerships, compared with that in single people or extra-couple relationships, is widely debated. We estimated the proportional contribution of different routes of transmission to new HIV infections. As plans to use antiretroviral drugs as a strategy for population-level prevention progress, understanding the importance of different transmission routes is crucial to target intervention efforts.MethodsWe built a mechanistic model of HIV transmission with data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 2003-2011, of 27,201 cohabiting couples (men aged 15-59 years and women aged 15-49 years) from 18 sub-Saharan African countries with information about relationship duration, age at sexual debut, and HIV serostatus. We combined this model with estimates of HIV survival times and country-specific estimates of HIV prevalence and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We then estimated the proportion of recorded infections in surveyed cohabiting couples that occurred before couple formation, between couple members, and because of extra-couple intercourse.FindingsIn surveyed couples, we estimated that extra-couple transmission accounted for 27-61% of all HIV infections in men and 21-51% of all those in women, with ranges showing intercountry variation. We estimated that in 2011, extra-couple transmission accounted for 32-65% of new incident HIV infections in men in cohabiting couples, and 10-47% of new infections in women in such couples. Our findings suggest that transmission within couples occurs largely from men to women; however, the latter sex have a very high-risk period before couple formation.InterpretationBecause of the large contribution of extra-couple transmission to new HIV infections, interventions for HIV prevention should target the general sexually active population and not only serodiscordant couples.FundingUS National Institutes of Health, US National Science Foundation, and J S McDonnell Foundation.
| S-EPMC3703831 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe use of a combination of the integrase inhibitor, cabotegravir, and the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, rilpivirine, in a long-acting injectable form is being considered as an antiretroviral treatment option for people with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to model the effects of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine to help to inform its potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness under different possible policies for its introduction.MethodsWe used an existing individual-based model of HIV to predict the effects of introducing monthly injections of cabotegravir-rilpivirine for people with HIV in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated policies in the context of 1000 setting scenarios that reflected characteristics of HIV epidemics and programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. We compared three policies for introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine with continued use of dolutegravir-based oral regimens for: all individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART); individuals with a recently measured viral load of more than 1000 copies per mL (signifying poor adherence to oral drugs, and often associated with drug resistance); and individuals with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL (a group with a lower prevalence of pre-existing drug resistance). We also did cost-effectiveness analysis, taking a health system perspective over a 10 year period, with 3% discounting of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and costs. A cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted was used to establish if a policy was cost-effective.FindingsIn our model, all policies involving the introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine were predicted to lead to an increased proportion of people with HIV on ART, increased viral load suppression, and decreased AIDS-related mortality, with lesser benefits in people with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL. Its introduction is also predicted to lead to increases in resistance to integrase inhibitors and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors if introduced in all people with HIV on ART or in those with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL, but to a lesser extent if introduced in people with more than 1000 copies per mL due to concentration of its use in people less adherent to oral therapy. Consistent with the effect on AIDS-related mortality, all approaches to the introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine are predicted to avert DALYs. Assuming a cost of $120 per person per year, use of this regimen in people with a recently measured viral load of more than 1000 copies per mL was borderline cost-effective (median cost per DALY averted across setting scenarios $404). The other approaches considered for its use are unlikely to be cost-effective unless the cost per year of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine is considerably reduced.InterpretationOur modelling suggests that injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine offers potential benefits; however, to be a cost-effective option, its introduction might need to be carefully targeted to individuals with HIV who might otherwise have suboptimal adherence to ART. As data accumulate from trials and implementation studies, such findings can be incorporated into the model to better inform on the full consequences of policy alternatives.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, including through the HIV Modelling Consortium (OPP1191655).
| S-EPMC8050198 | biostudies-literature