Impact analysis studies of clinical prediction rules relevant to primary care: a systematic review.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wallace E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4800123 | biostudies-other | 2016 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Diagnostic clinical prediction rules (CPRs) are developed to improve diagnosis or decrease diagnostic testing. Whether, and in what situations diagnostic CPRs improve upon clinical judgment is unclear.We searched MEDLINE, Embase and CINAHL, with supplementary citation and reference checking for studies comparing CPRs and clinical judgment against a current objective reference standard. We report 1) the proportion of study participants classified as not having disease who hence may avoid further testing and or treatment and 2) the proportion, among those classified as not having disease, who do (missed diagnoses) by both approaches. 31 studies of 13 medical conditions were included, with 46 comparisons between CPRs and clinical judgment. In 2 comparisons (4%), CPRs reduced the proportion of missed diagnoses, but this was offset by classifying a larger proportion of study participants as having disease (more false positives). In 36 comparisons (78%) the proportion of diagnoses missed by CPRs and clinical judgment was similar, and in 9 of these, the CPRs classified a larger proportion of participants as not having disease (fewer false positives). In 8 comparisons (17%) the proportion of diagnoses missed by the CPRs was greater. This was offset by classifying a smaller proportion of participants as having the disease (fewer false positives) in 2 comparisons. There were no comparisons where the CPR missed a smaller proportion of diagnoses than clinical judgment and classified more participants as not having the disease. The design of the included studies allows evaluation of CPRs when their results are applied independently of clinical judgment. The performance of CPRs, when implemented by clinicians as a support to their judgment may be different.In the limited studies to date, CPRs are rarely superior to clinical judgment and there is generally a trade-off between the proportion classified as not having disease and the proportion of missed diagnoses. Differences between the two methods of judgment are likely the result of different diagnostic thresholds for positivity. Which is the preferred judgment method for a particular clinical condition depends on the relative benefits and harms of true positive and false positive diagnoses.
| S-EPMC4454557 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDiagnostic clinical prediction rules (CPRs) are worthwhile if they improve patient outcomes or provide benefits such as reduced resource use, without harming patients. We conducted a systematic review to assess the effects of diagnostic CPRs on patient and process of care outcomes.MethodsWe searched electronic databases and a trial registry and performed citation and reference checks, for randomised trials comparing a diagnostic strategy with and without a CPR. Included studies were assessed for risk of bias and similar studies meta-analysed.ResultsTwenty-seven studies evaluating diagnostic CPRs for 14 conditions were included. A clinical management decision was the primary outcome in the majority of studies. Most studies were judged to be at high or uncertain risk of bias on ≥3 of 6 domains. Details of study interventions and implementation were infrequently reported.For suspected Group A Streptococcus throat infection, diagnostic CPRs reduced symptoms (1 study) and antibiotic prescriptions (5 studies, RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.99). For suspected cardiac chest pain, diagnostic strategies incorporating a CPR improved early discharge rates (1 study), decreased objective cardiac testing (1 study) and decreased hospitalisations (1 study). For ankle injuries, Ottawa Ankle Rules reduced radiography when used with clinical examination (1 study) but had no effect on length of stay as a triage test (1 study). For suspected acute appendicitis, CPRs had no effect on rates of perforated appendix (1 study) or the number of non-therapeutic operations (5 studies, RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.08). For suspected pneumonia, CPRs reduced antibiotic prescribing without unfavourable outcomes (3 studies). For children with possible serious bacterial infection, diagnostic CPRs did not improve process of care outcomes (3 studies).ConclusionThere are few randomised trials of diagnostic CPRs, and patient outcomes are infrequently reported. Diagnostic CPRs had a positive effect on process outcomes in some clinical conditions; however, many studies were at unclear or high risk of bias and the results may be context specific. Future studies should seek to detail how the CPR might alter the diagnostic pathway, report effects on both patient and process outcomes, and improve reporting of the study interventions and implementation.Trial registrationThe protocol for this review was not registered with PROSPERO, the international prospective register of systematic review protocols. The review was conceived and protocol prepared prior to the launch of PROSPERO in February 2011.
| S-EPMC6460683 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveClinical prediction rules (CPRs) followed by D-dimer testing were shown to safely rule out venous thromboembolism (VTE) in about half of all suspected patients in controlled and experienced study settings. Yet, its real-life impact in primary care is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the real-life impact of CPRs for suspected VTE in primary care.DesignCross-sectional cohort study.SettingPrimary care in the Netherlands.ParticipantsPatients with suspected deep venous thrombosis (n=993) and suspected pulmonary embolism (n=484).InterventionsGeneral practitioners received an educational instruction on how to use CPRs in suspected VTE. We did not rectify incorrect application of the CPR in order to mimic daily clinical care.Main outcome measuresPrimary outcomes were the diagnostic failure rate, defined as the 3-month incidence of VTE in the non-referred group, and the efficiency, defined as the proportion of non-referred patients in the total study population. Secondary outcomes were determinants for and consequences of incorrect application of the CPRs.ResultsIn 267 of the included 1477 patients, VTE was confirmed. When CPRs were correctly applied, the failure rate was 1.51% (95% CI 0.77 to 2.86), and the efficiency was 58.1% (95% CI 55.2 to 61.0). However, the CPRs were incorrectly applied in 339 patients, which resulted in an increased failure rate of 3.31% (95% CI 1.07 to 8.76) and a decreased efficiency of 35.7% (95% CI 30.6 to 41.1). The presence of concurrent heart failure increased the likelihood of incorrect application (adjusted OR 3.26; 95% CI 1.47 to 7.21).ConclusionsCorrect application of CPRs for VTE in primary care is associated with an acceptable low failure rate at a high efficiency. Importantly, in nearly a quarter of patients, the CPRs were incorrectly applied that resulted in a higher failure rate and a considerably lower efficiency.
| S-EPMC7772307 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Substantial over-diagnosis and under-diagnosis of asthma in adults and children has recently been reported. As asthma is mostly diagnosed in non-specialist settings, a clinical prediction model (CPM) to aid the diagnosis of asthma in primary care may help improve diagnostic accuracy. We aim to systematically identify, describe, compare, and synthesise existing CPMs designed to support the diagnosis of asthma in children and adults presenting with symptoms suggestive of the disease, in primary care settings or equivalent populations. We will systematically search Medline, Embase and CINAHL from 1 January 1990 to present. Any CPM derived for use in a primary care population will be included. Equivalent populations in countries without a developed primary care service will also be included. The probability of asthma diagnosis will be the primary outcome. We will include CPMs designed for use in clinical practice to aid the diagnostic decision making of a healthcare professional during the assessment of an individual with symptoms suggestive of asthma. We will include derivation studies, and external model validation studies. Two reviewers will independently screen titles/abstracts and full texts for eligibility and extract data from included papers. The CHARMS checklist (or PROBAST if available) will be used to assess risk of bias within each study. Results will be summarised by narrative synthesis with meta-analyses completed if possible. This systematic review will provide comprehensive information about existing CPMs for the diagnosis of asthma in primary care and will inform the development of a future diagnostic model.
| S-EPMC5959853 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background: Our goal was to identify existing clinical prediction rules for predicting hospitalisation due to lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in children in primary care, guiding antibiotic therapy. A validation of these rules was then performed in a novel cohort of children presenting to primary care in Malawi with World Health Organisation clinically defined pneumonia. Methods: MEDLINE & EMBASE databases were searched for studies on the development, validation and clinical impact of clinical prediction models for hospitalisation in children with lower respiratory tract infection between January 1st1946-June 30th 2021. Two reviewers screened all abstracts and titles independently. The study was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews & Meta-Analyses guidelines. The BIOTOPE cohort (BIOmarkers TO diagnose PnEumonia) recruited children aged 2-59 months with WHO-defined pneumonia from two primary care facilities in Mzuzu, Malawi. Validation of identified rules was undertaken in this cohort. Findings: 1023 abstracts were identified. Following the removal of duplicates, a review of 989 abstracts was conducted leading to the identification of one eligible model. The CHARMS checklist for prediction modelling studies was utilized for evaluation. The area under the curve (AUC) of the STARWAVe rule for hospitalisation in BIOTOPE was found to be 0.80 (95% C.I of 0.75-0.85). The AUC of STARWAVe for a confirmed diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia was 0.39 (95% C.I 0.25-0.54). Interpretation: This review highlights the lack of clinical prediction rules in this area. The STARWAVe rule identified was useful in predicting hospitalisation from bacterial infection as defined. However, in the absence of a gold standard indicator for bacterial LRTI, this is a reasonable surrogate and could lead to reductions in antibiotic prescription rates, should clinical impact studies prove its utility. Further work to determine the clinical impact of STARWAVe and to identify diagnostic tests for bacterial LRTI in primary care is required.
| S-EPMC8529204 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Diagnosing asthma is challenging. Misdiagnosis can lead to untreated symptoms, incorrect treatment and avoidable deaths. The best combination of clinical features and tests to achieve a diagnosis of asthma is unclear. As asthma is usually diagnosed in non-specialist settings, a clinical prediction model to aid the assessment of the probability of asthma in primary care may improve diagnostic accuracy. We aimed to identify and describe existing prediction models to support the diagnosis of asthma in children and adults in primary care. We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, TRIP and US National Guidelines Clearinghouse databases from 1 January 1990 to 23 November 17. We included prediction models designed for use in primary care or equivalent settings to aid the diagnostic decision-making of clinicians assessing patients with symptoms suggesting asthma. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts and full texts for eligibility, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. From 13,798 records, 53 full-text articles were reviewed. We included seven modelling studies; all were at high risk of bias. Model performance varied, and the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.61 to 0.82. Patient-reported wheeze, symptom variability and history of allergy or allergic rhinitis were associated with asthma. In conclusion, clinical prediction models may support the diagnosis of asthma in primary care, but existing models are at high risk of bias and thus unreliable for informing practice. Future studies should adhere to recognised standards, conduct model validation and include a broader range of clinical data to derive a prediction model of value for clinicians.
| S-EPMC6509212 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsThis study sought to review the literature for clinical prediction models for the diagnosis of patients with chronic heart failure in the community and to validate the models in a novel cohort of patients with a suspected diagnosis of chronic heart failure.Methods and resultsMEDLINE and Embase were searched from 1946 to Q4 2017. Studies were eligible if they contained at least one multivariable model for the diagnosis of chronic heart failure applicable to the primary care setting. The CHARMS checklist was used to evaluate models. We also validated models, where possible, in a novel cohort of patients with a suspected diagnosis of heart failure referred to a rapid access diagnostic clinic. In total, 5310 articles were identified with nine articles subsequently meeting the eligibility criteria. Three models had undergone internal validation, and four had undergone external validation. No clinical impact studies have been completed to date. Area under the curve (AUC) varied from 0.74 to 0.93 and from 0.60 to 0.65 in the novel cohort for clinical models alone with AUC up to 0.89 in combination with electrocardiogram and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). The AUC for BNP was 0.86 (95% confidence interval 83.3-88.6%).ConclusionsThis review demonstrates that there are a number of clinical prediction rules relevant to the diagnosis of chronic heart failure in the literature. Clinical impact studies are required to compare the use of clinical prediction rules and biomarker strategies in this setting.
| S-EPMC6487728 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimTo identify which patient-related effect modifiers influence the outcomes of integrated care programs for type 2 diabetes in primary care.BackgroundIntegrated care is a widespread management strategy for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, most integrated care programs are not tailored to patients' needs, preferences and abilities. There is increasing consensus that such a patient-centered approach could improve the management of type 2 diabetes. Thus far, it remains unclear which patient-related effect modifiers should guide such an approach.MethodsPubMed, CINAHL and EMBASE were searched for empirical studies published after 1998. A systematic literature review was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines.FindingsIn total, 23 out of 1015 studies were included. A total of 21 studies measured the effects of integrated diabetes care programs on hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and three on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and health-care utilization. In total, 49 patient characteristics were assessed as potential effect modifiers with HbA1c as an outcome, of which 46 were person or health-related and only three were context-related. Younger age, insulin therapy and longer disease duration were associated with higher HbA1c levels in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. Higher baseline HbA1c was associated with higher HbA1c at follow-up in longitudinal studies. Information on context- and person-related characteristics was limited, but is necessary to help identify the care needs of individual patients and implement an effective integrated type 2 diabetes tailored care program.
| S-EPMC6452927 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough cardiovascular prediction rules are recommended by guidelines to evaluate global cardiovascular risk for primary prevention, they are rarely used in primary care. Little is known about barriers for application. The objective of this study was to evaluate barriers impeding the application of cardiovascular prediction rules in primary prevention.MethodsWe performed a postal survey among general physicians in two Swiss Cantons by a purpose designed questionnaire.Results356 of 772 dispatched questionnaires were returned (response rate 49.3%). About three quarters (74%) of general physicians rarely or never use cardiovascular prediction rules. Most often stated barriers to apply prediction rules among rarely- or never-users are doubts concerning over-simplification of risk assessment using these instruments (58%) and potential risk of (medical) over-treatment (54%). 57% report that the numerical information resulting from prediction rules is often not helpful for decision-making in practice.ConclusionIf regular application of cardiovascular prediction rules in primary care is in demand additional interventions are needed to increase acceptance of these tools for patient management among general physicians.
| S-EPMC1766351 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGreater continuity of care has been associated with lower hospital admissions and patient mortality. This systematic review aims to examine the impact of relational continuity between primary care professionals and older people receiving aged care services, in residential or home care settings, on health care resource use and person-centred outcomes.MethodsSystematic review of five databases, four trial registries and three grey literature sources to October 2020. Included studies (a) aimed to increase relational continuity with a primary care professional, (b) focused on older people receiving aged care services (c) included a comparator and (d) reported outcomes of health care resource use, quality of life, activities of daily living, mortality, falls or satisfaction. Cochrane Collaboration or Joanna Briggs Institute criteria were used to assess risk of bias and GRADE criteria to rate confidence in evidence and conclusions.ResultsHeterogeneity in study cohorts, settings and outcome measurement in the five included studies (one randomised) precluded meta-analysis. None examined relational continuity exclusively with non-physician providers. Higher relational continuity with a primary care physician probably reduces hospital admissions (moderate certainty evidence; high versus low continuity hazard ratio (HR) 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-0.96, n = 178,686; incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.99, 95%CI 0.76-1.27, n = 246) and emergency department (ED) presentations (moderate certainty evidence; high versus low continuity HR 0.90, 95%CI 0.89-0.92, n = 178,686; IRR 0.91, 95%CI 0.72-1.15, n = 246) for older community-dwelling aged care recipients. The benefit of providing on-site primary care for relational continuity in residential settings is uncertain (low certainty evidence, 2 studies, n = 2,468 plus 15 care homes); whilst there are probably lower hospitalisations and may be fewer ED presentations, there may also be an increase in reported mortality and falls. The benefit of general practitioners' visits during hospital admission is uncertain (very low certainty evidence, 1 study, n = 335).ConclusionGreater relational continuity with a primary care physician probably reduces hospitalisations and ED presentations for community-dwelling aged care recipients, thus policy initiatives that increase continuity may have cost offsets. Further studies of approaches to increase relational continuity of primary care within aged care, particularly in residential settings, are needed.Review registrationCRD42021215698.
| S-EPMC9281225 | biostudies-literature